Will there be a US recession in 2007?

On the face of it, things look pretty good for the US economy. It weathered both hurricanes and high oil prices to produce its fourth consecutive year of growth in 2005. So why does billionaire financier George Soros expect a recession in 2007?

President Bush launched a concerted PR offensive last weekend to talk up the US economy, said Edmund Andrews in The New York Times. In response to complaints from his own party that he has been too shy about claiming credit for America's above-trend growth, Bush sent two dozen administration officials out across America to promote the Republican record.

"The American economy heads into 2006 with a full head of steam," claimed the president, citing data on jobs, productivity and home ownership and demanding that Congress extends his major tax cuts on dividends, capital gains and estate taxes, as well as wages. And, on the face of it, things look pretty good for the US economy. Last year, GDP grew by about 3.6% the fourth consecutive year of growth since the short 2001 dip. What's more, it managed to weather the disruption caused by Hurricane Katrina and high energy prices with apparent ease.

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