US economy: Mind the output gap

Is inflation or deflation the greater danger over the next few years? The most common argument against inflation is the so-called 'output gap' - the gulf between actual and potential GDP.

Is inflation or deflation the greater danger over the next few years? Will inflation take off now that central banks have cranked up the printing presses? Or, as the deflationists expect, will the credit squeeze bear down on growth and prices for years to come?

The most common argument against inflation flaring up is the so-called output gap, says Morgan Stanley. The "Great Recession" has created a gulf between actual and potential GDP, and all this spare capacity will take years to absorb. For example, the US Congressional Budget Office estimated that the output gap in the US was -6.2% of GDP in the first quarter. This implies that GDP could grow solidly for years before demand exceeds supply in the economy and it begins to overheat.

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