Why you should avoid investing in China for now

Don't be tempted to dive into a China-tracking fund just yet, says Tim Bennett - bide your time.

Anthony Bolton must sometimes rue the day he agreed to come out of retirement and run a China fund. The share price of his Fidelity China Special Situations trust fell 31.2% in the six months to the end of September. Worse, he seems at a loss to explain it other than to say that "performance has been very disappointing". For investors thinking of investing in China, that's hardly reassuring. Our advice? Don't.

Yes, over the longer run it will be hard to ignore an economy tipped to overtake the world's number one, America. But good investing isn't just about spotting opportunities, it's also about getting your timing right. Just now, "near-term profitability is shrinking and prospects for 2012 look dismal", says Rita Raagas de Ramos in the Financial Times. As Boston-based consulting firm Cerulli Associates explains, the fund management industry in particular is braced for an "immaculate storm".

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Tim graduated with a history degree from Cambridge University in 1989 and, after a year of travelling, joined the financial services firm Ernst and Young in 1990, qualifying as a chartered accountant in 1994.

He then moved into financial markets training, designing and running a variety of courses at graduate level and beyond for a range of organisations including the Securities and Investment Institute and UBS. He joined MoneyWeek in 2007.