Cuba after Castro: will democracy take root?

published 16 August 2006

Fidel Castro's recent health scare and temporary handover of power to his brother Raul may not mark the end of his 47-year rule in Cuba, but it could well be the beginning of the end. Cuban authorities insist he will be back within weeks, but with no information forthcoming on his exact condition, analysts are sceptical; last week, possible successors to Raul were being touted. Anti-Americans admire Castro for standing up to Washington and highlight Cuba's achievements in healthcare and education, as The Independent points out. But this ignores a long record of economic failure and repressive politics. It's easy for people who live in capitalist countries to see Castro as a left-wing icon, adds The Wall Street Journal; they don't have to live "amid the daily Cuban reality of grinding poverty and political intimidation".

So what next for Cuba? The Bush administration hopes the island is ready to embrace democracy and has promised Cubans humanitarian support in this period of transition. But there is no "immediate magic democratic and market-based alternative" waiting to emerge, according to the FT. The government has far more legitimacy than its previous counterparts in the old east bloc, while the Cuban economy has grown more resilient over the past few years, thanks to an alliance with Venezuela yielding subsidised petrol and buoyant commodity exports. Meanwhile, the younger Communist leaders seem more likely to encourage market-based reforms. So encouraging radical change, which the Cuban exiles dancing in the streets last week are looking forward to, could "dangerously destabilise" the country.

by Graham Buck