Attention: Our "Crash Alert" flag is flying.
Dow down.
Oil down.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Yields down.
Gold down.
Markets are in free fall, notes John Burford. He's tracking the gold price charts and says the signs are very ominous' for many markets.
What's going on?
Yesterday, we drove into Washington, DC, to the Argentinian embassy. Friends from Salta were hosting a wine-tasting. It seemed strange to see our Argentinian friends who live in a remote corner of the country in our nation's capital. But it was a pleasure to see them... and taste their very strong, high altitude malbecs.
Washington has largely escaped the financial crisis. There is plenty of money in the city, but hardly anyone in town knows anything about economics or finance. It is politics they care about. That's how they get money, in the old fashioned way by taking it away from someone else. So, it is only natural that they believe the world of economics should be approached in the same way by brute force. Command, control, and central planning... that is Washington's method. That's what politics is all about.
Of course, politics and economics are natural enemies, not natural friends. An economy works best when willing buyers and sellers, investors and entrepreneurs, consumer and producers are able to get together on their own terms. As Adam Smith explained it, they all look out for themselves... and are all guided, as if by an "invisible hand" towards an outcome that is best for the group. Hayek described it in more detail. Willing buyers and sellers set prices freely. Those prices are rich in information. They tell investors where to invest... and shoppers where to shop... and businessmen where to apply themselves.
The more you interfere with this process, the more screwed up things get. Artificial prices such as the price of credit set by the Fed send the wrong signal. Investors make mistakes. Resources are misallocated. Bubbles are pumped up... and then, blown up.
But Washington doesn't care. It's not really the gross welfare or wealth of the people it worries about, but the relative wealth. "Fairness," they call it. And relative to the rest of the nation, Washingtonians are getting richer. That's fair, isn't it?
Washington is a bad place to run over a pedestrian. He is almost certainly a lawyer. So, if you run over him... our advice is to back up quickly and run over him again. Finish him off. Otherwise he'll sue you.
The houses in Georgetown and the northwest section of the city are handsome. They have carefully-tended lawns and gardens... and a Prius or Volvo parked in front. DC residents at least those in the northwest of the city and the Virginia suburbs are conscious of their carbon footprint.' They recycle. They are well-meaning, earnest and public spirited... Just the sort of people you would like to run over, in other words.
Driving in Massachusetts Avenue... then up Wisconsin Avenue... and then along MacArthur Blvd... we passed many of the places we've heard so much about over the years. Fannie Mae's huge headquarters... Homeland Security... the Brookings Institution... SAIS... the White House... the Capitol... the US Treasury... the Eccles Building, where the Fed is headquartered... It's all there.
"It's amazing how much damage has been done from such a little geographic area," Elizabeth remarked.
And more thoughts
The question we have been asking ourselves for the last five years.
Which way will America go? To Tokyo or Buenos Aires? To deflation... or to inflation? To a long, cold drawn-out slump... or a fiery blow-up?
Mr Market is pushing the US towards Japan. No question about that. After 60 years of credit expansion we now have a natural credit contraction. Households and businesses are paying down... and defaulting on... debt. They're hoarding cash rather than splashing it around.
For example, young people are driving less... and buying fewer starter houses.' Gasoline use in America is going down. So are housing prices.
Part of the reason young people are buying fewer houses is that they can't afford them. The Financial Times reports:
"Young put off buying homes under weight of student debt."
Yes, dear reader, the feds practically force-fed young people student loans. Like shyster subprime lenders, the feds offered students money at low teaser rates. Now, the rates are supposed to double.
Of course, the poor student thought he would be set up when he got out of school. He thought he'd have a well-paying job!
Now, he'll be lucky to have any job at all...
It looked for a while as if the economy really were recovering. At least, that's what everybody said. But now Mr Market has asserted himself again.
Yesterday, stocks fell again. Oil, copper, Treasury bond yields... everything is going down.
Truck buyers were cancelling orders at the fastest rate in two years.
As to housing prices, the FT continues: "The number of first-time buyers has plunged they comprised 37 per cent of home purchases in 2011, down from 51 per cent in 2010 sapping the struggling housing market of a traditional source of vitality.
"High levels of student debt, along with tighter mortgage requirements and stagnant wages, are forcing young people to delay buying their first homes."
Is there any fed policy that hasn't backfired? Not that we know of. And the biggest fed policy now aside from world domination is the attempt to hijack Mr Market's plane, en route to Tokyo, and force it to Buenos Aires.
The feds have put their hearts and souls into this effort. Too bad they haven't put their brains to it too!
Don't miss Bill's next Daily Reckoning. To receive the next article straight into your inbox as soon as he's written it, sign up to the email list here .
Information in The Daily Reckoning is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or not making) specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares - you can lose some or all of your money, so never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always seek personal advice if you are unsure about the suitability of any investment. The Daily Reckoning is an unregulated product published by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Customer services: 020 7633 3600. Fleet Street Publications Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. https://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/home.do FSA number: 1152 34
-
Going part-time could leave a £58,000 hole in your pension: how to plug the gapThere are many reasons for switching to part-time work, but some savers don’t consider the impact on their pension until it is too late
-
Three bargain investment trusts to add to your portfolioThese three investment trusts are bargains compared to their net asset value (NAV), but one fund analyst thinks the deep discounts are unwarranted.
