Where to invest as aluminium plays catch-up
The alumium price may have risen more slowly than that of other metals in the past five years, but now it looks to be coming into its own. We examine the factors giving it a boost.
Over the past five years, the price of aluminium, which is used in a range of items from beverage cans to aircraft fuselages, has risen by about 14% a year compared with 26% for tin and 42% for lead. But the outlook for the metals laggard is improving, says Brett Foley on Bloomberg.
Accelerating industrial production growth in China points to unexpectedly strong demand, says Deutsche Bank, which expects Chinese demand to grow by 20% this year. And there is plenty of scope for higher demand in the years ahead. A country's aluminium consumption is closely linked to its wealth. China and India's output per capita is still less than a sixth that of developed countries; China currently consumes ten kilograms of aluminium per head compared with over 40 in the US and Japan, as Lex points out in the FT. Meanwhile, China is reining in local aluminium production, having recently removed tax rebates on exports of most aluminium products. By 2009, China may be a net aluminium importer, according to Michael Widmer of investment bank Calyon.
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