Jim Rogers has a reputation for getting the big trends right. He began to short housebuilders and financials in 2006, not long before the credit bubble burst, and has been keen on raw materials ever since they embarked on a long-term upswing at the turn of the century.
The commodities supercycle isn't over yet, he tells Germany's FAZ.net. Raw materials are a good bet, whether the world returns to growth or not. If it does, there will be renewed supply squeezes. If not, central banks will continue to print money, bolstering the appeal of hard assets.
All this money printing has artificially pumped up stockmarkets; investors should beware of the rally. Japan, however, is an exception to this rule. "It's one of the few places in the world where I own shares," as he points out on Bloomberg. The new government's efforts to overcome deflation and weaken the yen bode well.
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The longer-term worry in the West is a jump in inflation after all this money printing. Central bankers insist it isn't a threat and it doesn't appear in the official statistics, but in America if you go shopping or eat out, you see it, says Rogers. "Where do central bankers shop?"
Given this backdrop, it's hardly surprising that Rogers still likes gold. It's a form of insurance for troubled times, and you don't just give up on it because it's dipped, he says. In fact, it would be "wonderful" if the price fell to $1,200 an ounce so he could stock up cheaply.
Finally, a tip on strategy: when it comes to investment, don't listen to your mother. It seems mothers are contrarian indicators. As soon as my mother became interested in an investment, says Rogers, I always knew it was "time to get out".
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