The euro is following my script in the charts

I will follow up on the euro today because it’s highlighting an important benefit of my trading methods: the Elliott wave model combined with my tramline technique can give you a powerful edge – if you know how to use it!

Incidentally, you can have the very best trading method in the world, and still lose money, while another trader using the identical method may succeed (or vice versa, of course). This is simply because of the human factor.

We all bring our own biases, strengths and weaknesses into the trading arena. Some are more disciplined than others, and some come to trading with a faulty idea of what it takes to make it. But that is a subject for another day.

For now, I’m going to get back to the euro.

Why traders need detective skills

Let’s start with a long-term appraisal of where the EUR/USD is positioned. Here is the weekly chart going back to 2007:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

The blow-off top took the market to the Fibonacci 62% retrace of the latest large wave down off the most significant high to the major 2012 low. This was a level that was flagged well in advance. That means you could have prepared your trading stance with time to spare.

Also, the rally off the 2012 low is a clear A-B-C. That tells you that it is corrective to the main trend, which is down. That was another clue to position short.

You see, performing an analysis in this way is very much like a detective building a case from the evidence, which may come from many avenues. When all the evidence is in, it goes before the judge. In our case, the judge is Mr Market!


MONEYWEEK TRADER

Claim your FREE report: The five-step game-plan for
spread betting profits


How to find the evidence

On Monday, I showed my Elliott wave count off the 27 December blow-off top. Let’s see how that is working:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

My wave 3 did terminate on Monday, as I forecast. Remember, third waves are almost always long and strong and can extend beyond where you think it should end.

One clue that wave 3 is about to end is in the momentum reading. When momentum is edging up in a potential positive divergence, it is indicating a weakening of the selling pressure. There is a very large positive-momentum divergence at my wave 3 low.

Yesterday, the market followed the script and edged up in wave 4. But are there any clues as to how high wave 4 would extend? This is time to take a closer look.

Now that I have a few small waves down off the top, I can look for tramlines:

EUR/USD spread betting chart

Here they are – and they were not difficult to find. My lower line is drawn across the three sets of minor lows. And the upper line joins the wave 2 highs, with the market currently bouncing down off this line as it hit resistance.

I have also drawn in the Fibonacci levels off the top and the wave 4 rally carried to the meeting of the tramline and the Fibonacci 23% level.

Remember, when you have a good tramline meeting a solid Fibonacci retrace level, that represents extra-strong resistance. And because I expect a move down to new lows in my forecast wave 5, the odds are high that wave 4 has completed.

The euro could be in for an eventful year

OK, so what is my forecast target? Let’s back up and look at the bigger picture:

From the macro perspective, pressure is building in the eurozone for the European Central Bank to do something to counter the deflationary wave sweeping across Europe. So it seems 2014 will be a very eventful year for the euro.

EUR/USD spread betting chart

Here is the rally off the major November low with the Fibonacci levels. The market is currently testing the Fibonacci 50% level. And if my analysis is correct, this level should give way. The next target for wave 5 is the 62% level just above 1.35.

The alternative view is that the move down off the top is in an A-B-C form (only three waves so far). This implies a bounce up to new highs. But to me, this is a lower probability because it would have to push up through the strong resistance offered by the tramline in my second chart.

If my Elliott wave forecast is correct, that would magnify the odds that the trend was down and lower values lie ahead.

• If you’re a new reader, or need a reminder about some of the methods I refer to in my trades, then do have a look at my introductory videos:

The essentials of tramline trading
Advanced tramline trading
An introduction to Elliott wave theory
Advanced trading with Elliott waves
Trading with Fibonacci levels
Trading with 'momentum'
Putting it all together

• Don't miss my next trading insight. To receive all my spread betting blog posts by email, as soon as I've written them, just sign up here . If you have any queries regarding MoneyWeek Trader, please contact us here.
ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 25 09.51

New to MoneyWeek?

john-burford-141x188

Welcome, and thank you for visiting us.

Here at MoneyWeek, our aim is simple. To give you intelligent and enjoyable commentary on the most important financial stories of the week, and tell you how to profit from them.

If you've enjoyed what you've read so far, I've got something you'll definitely be interested in.

Three times a week I send out our spread betting email, 'MoneyWeek Trader', which gives you tips, secrets and trading strategies – to help you avoid the traps most spread betters fall into, and maximise your profits.

And with your permission, I'd like to send you MoneyWeek Trader for FREE.

To sign-up enter your email address below.

We hope you enjoy your stay on the site. Good luck with your investments!

John C Burford,
Editor, MoneyWeek Trader

(No thanks)

Because these emails are completely free, we do have to fund them with advertising. Occasionally we will send you promotional emails, however we will never give, sell or rent your email address to any other companies.For more information, please see our Privacy policy.

 

• Stay up to date with MoneyWeek: Follow us on TwitterFacebook and Google+

Comment on this article

MoneyWeek magazine

Latest issue:

Magazine cover
Profit from the agriculture boom

The UK's best-selling financial magazine. Take a FREE trial today.
Claim 3 FREE Issues
Shale gas 'fracking' promises to transform Britain's energy market. Find out what it is, what it means, and how to invest.

More from MoneyWeek

The problem with the Bank of England

Fracking: Nine reasons not to get carried away

Five small-cap stocks worth a flutter

This Dutch company could help us tame floods

ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 25 09.51

Get the latest tips and investment opportunities from MoneyWeek magazine: Claim 3 FREE issues HERE