Has the euro topped in the charts?

The charts are presenting us with a very clear long-term picture, says John C Burford. Here's what that means for the euro.

When I last covered the euro, I noted that I was wrong in my short-term analysis. And I'm OK with that. Being wrong is a fact of life in trading. We are dealing with probabilities, not certainties. And we always have incomplete information which only comes to light later.

Successful trading is about losing as little as possible on your losers and making as much as possible on your winners. But when you do go wrong, it always helps to go back and see why it happened. That way, you can hopefully learn from your mistakes.

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(Contracts of EUR 125,000)Row 0 - Cell 1 Row 0 - Cell 2 Row 0 - Cell 3 Open interest: 281,037
Commitments
75,04881,9777,684157,239131,888239,971221,54941,06659,488
Changes from 02/04/14 (Change in open interest: 6,891)
7,434753-1,289-3,49712,1072,64811,5714,243-4,680
Percent of open in terest for each category of traders
26.729.22.755.946.985.478.814.621.2
Number of traders in each category (Total traders: 183)
337323475396133Row 8 - Cell 7 Row 8 - Cell 8

John is is a British-born lapsed PhD physicist, who previously worked for Nasa on the Mars exploration team. He is a former commodity trading advisor with the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and worked in a boutique futures house in California in the 1980s.

 

He was a partner in one of the first futures newsletter advisory services, based in Washington DC, specialising in pork bellies and currencies. John is primarily a chart-reading trader, having cut his trading teeth in the days before PCs.

 

As well as his work in the financial world, he has launched, run and sold several 'real' businesses producing 'real' products.