Finding Fibonacci in various markets

Today I go off-piste and show a few markets where Fibonacci retracements have pinpointed great trade entries. This should help any trader spot low-risk trades.

As you know, I love using my Fibonacci tool and will apply it whenever I suspect there has been a recent turn which gives me the second pivot point. I do this on any timeframe chart.

Let me give a few examples.

Nikkei versus Dow

The Nikkei is a widely traded index of major Japanese shares. It is considered the Dow Jones Industrial Index of Japan. You would think that since the world’s major economies are globalised and inter-connected that the world’s stock markets would move more or less in synch. After all, a slowdown in the USA and Europe should result in a similar move in Japan and China as these countries are export-driven.

But compare the Nikkei with the Dow on these daily charts going back to the pre-credit crunch days:

Nikkei 225 spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

Dow Jones spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

Following the 2007-2009 collapse, the Nikkei managed to rally to the exact 38% Fibonacci level (blue bar) – and had declined ever since. That was a great place to short the Nikkei.

In the Dow, we saw a similar collapse, but the Dow rallied to a deeper 62% Fibonacci retrace before hitting resistance. That was also a great place for a short trade. But here, the Dow has rallied, unlike the Nikkei. Maybe markets are not so inter-connected after all.

Let’s take a look at recent action in the Nikkei:

Nikkei 225 spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The decline off the April peak is a clear five-wave affair – complete with a positive momentum divergence at the wave 5 low. That is pure textbook and indicates the main trend is down.

But when you see this pattern, you know a rally lies ahead and it becomes a good idea to cover shorts.

The first rally carried to the Fibonacci 38% retrace (blue arrow) and after a series of overlapping waves (indicating a likely pause in the bear market), the market made two stabs at the Fibonacci 50% level (blue bars) and is currently challenging recent market lows.

The rallies to the 50% level were ideal places to enter short trades, of course.

I find that the shallow 38% retraces normally indicate a prompt resumption in the downtrend, while the 50% and deeper retraces normally indicate more work before the bear market can get back on track.

EUR versus USD

The euro has been in a bear market for some time, but with a recent large correction.

EUR/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

Following Monday’s 1.28 low – a new low for the move – the market this week has rallied in a clear A-B-C form (indicating a correction), and the market made it back to the Fibonacci 62% retrace with a slight overshoot (purple bar). 

These ‘pigtails’ are quite common and usually mark the end of the move.

Again, a short trade at the 62% area was indicated.

And finally…

GBP versus USD

This market has been swinging wildly recently with no clear direction, and here is the action over the past few days:

GBP/USD spread betting chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

From Friday’s high, the decline occurred in five waves: with a nice positive momentum divergence at wave 5; then a rally to the 36% Fibonacci level; then a dip; and then a run up to the 50% level. This last run completed a nice A-B-C (purple lines) corrective pattern.

The odds favour a declining market, which would be confirmed by a move below Monday’s low – and in fact as I write, this move has just occurred in the past minute!

In these posts, what I write can very quickly become out of date!

But I hope you can see that using these simple ideas could give you terrific low-risk trade entries.

• If you’re a new reader, or need a reminder about some of the methods I refer to in my trades, then do have a look at my introductory videos:

The essentials of tramline trading

Advanced tramline trading

An introduction to Elliott wave theory

Advanced trading with Elliott waves

Trading with Fibonacci levels

Trading with ‘momentum’

Putting it all together

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