The 2020 US presidential election will have a massive impact on stockmarkets, reckon staff at Paul Tudor Jones' investment firm. The billionaire investor told attendees at the Greenwich Economic Forum that an internal poll had found that his employees reckon the S&P 500 could fall by as much as 25% to 2,250 on a victory for Democrat Elizabeth Warren or jump by around 15% to 3,600 if Donald Trump remains in charge, reports CNBC.
Jones dismisses the idea that investors can ignore elections. "It does make a difference. Ronald Reagan, when he became president, was a huge difference to the stockmarket. And I would say who the next president is, is also going to have a huge impact on the economy and the stockmarket, particularly asset pricing." Overall, he adds, this election "is going to be more meaningful than any one certainly in my lifetime".
Jones agrees that Warren's tax-raising policies would likely "cause some economic contraction". That said, he describes Trump as "the greatest salesman" in US history because of his ability to convince the Republican party that running a budget deficit of 5% "is good government policy", and also his efforts to push the Federal Reserve into maintaining negative "real" (after-inflation) interest rates. For his own part, Jones has donated to both Republicans and Democrats in the past, and has expressed admiration for another Democrat candidate, Pete Buttigieg, who he described as having "a compassionate heart".
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