Boris Johnson's strategy is straightforward to make sure that he's "the people's choice" at the inevitable upcoming general election.
When an electorate is polarised, it makes political sense to pick a side. As Margaret Thatcher once said: "Standing in the middle of the road is very dangerous you get knocked down by the traffic from both sides". The Labour party's plunge in the polls should make that clear enough. By contrast, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken a persistent and commanding lead since he firmly committed to delivering Brexit by 31 October, "do or die".
But now it seems that his attempt at a deal is dead, shunned as too unworkable even to begin the formal negotiating process. That leaves only the option of leaving without a deal at all which the Benn act seeks to postpone by forcing the prime minister to ask the European Union for a three-month extension to the current Halloween deadline. How can Johnson now square the circle without breaking his promise and surrendering his lead in the polls?
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One suggestion is that failing to leave might not hurt him too much, if others can be blamed for forcing him to do it. Recent surveys suggest that 83% of British voters would blame Parliament for any such delay. But more than half would still blame the prime minster and why not? He's been in charge where others have stepped aside to argue among themselves, or merely virtue signal their protest. He had it in his power to get a deal, didn't he?
The People versus The Establishment
Being blamed for breaking his 31 October promise doesn't play well into this narrative. So he will have to go a step further. His hands must be tied tighter. The Establishment must be provoked more. Downing Street leaks that its legal advisers suggest the Benn act can be challenged, providing a loophole. They could argue that it was unconstitutional to allow Parliament to bind the hands of the government on foreign treaties; that the act is incompatible with EU law; that the act is internally inconsistent (as the Kinnock amendment requires an extension only to continue dialogue over a deal, and a deal isn't even on the table).
But these are just procedural sleights of hand designed to cause distraction and mass confusion. In this confusion, with the clock ticking down, Johnson will simply emerge with a clear message: "We are out." And what will the response be from the EU, the courts, Parliament, 21 Tory MPs, the speaker? The Establishment will say, in unison: "No, you're not."
This is not about rules it's about power
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The truth doesn't matter in this political game. Only that each time there is a clash, the war between The People and The Establishment intensifies. And in the heat, the battle drum marches on to a general election, where everyone must pick a side. The ultimate winner will be the person who correctly predicts where the balance of public opinion will fall.
Johnson is confident that he will be rewarded for his unswerving commitment to delivering the will of the 52%. They power his determination to take the next outrageous steps in this epic Brexit saga. Time will tell if he has picked the right battles.
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Helen Thomas CFA has worked in financial markets for over 17 years. She founded her own macroeconomic consulting firm, BlondeMoney, in 2017 providing expert analysis on financial markets and politics.
Before that she was a Partner at a Global Macro hedge fund and Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She started her career in Foreign Exchange at Merrill Lynch before going on to work for Societe Generale and SEB. She has also worked in politics, as an adviser to former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne during the financial crisis.
She is a CFA Charterholder and holds a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University.
She is a Board Member of CFA UK where she is responsible for their sub-committee on the Value of the Investment Profession.
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