Who will be the next PM?

published 7 June 2019

950_MW_P10_P&E — Johnson leads the field

The next PM will be decided by 124,000 Tory party members. But will it change anything? Emily Hohler reports

Donald Trump may have been elected by just 46% of 63 million Americans, says Simon Jenkins in The Guardian. But Britain's next prime minister will be chosen by 124,000 members of a "benighted Conservative party". And those members must choose between two candidates selected by their party's 314 MPs. Theresa May resigns on Friday, and her successor is expected to be selected by the week starting 22 July. At the moment, the most likely outcome is Boris Johnson and Michael Gove being offered to members, and Johnson being chosen. Eleven MPs are currently in the running, but the numbers are expected to be whittled down fast as a new ruling by the 1922 Committee means that an MP now requires the support of eight MPs in order to enter the contest, say Patrick Scott, Ashley Kirk and Asa Bennett in The Daily Telegraph. At present the frontrunners are Johnson, who has the publicly declared support of 40 Tory MPs, and Gove, who has the backing of 26. Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab have the support of 25 and 22 respectively.

The Michael Jackson strategy

It is notable that Johnson now has the backing of Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak and Oliver Dowden, all seen as "sensible centrists" whose decision will encourage other One Nation rising stars to "get on board", says Matt Chorley in The Times. In a piece for the paper, the trio warn that the Tories face an "existential threat" and that only Johnson can save them. At his first major set of hustings this week, Johnson insisted he was "best placed to beat Jeremy Corbyn and put Nigel Farage back in his box", and said it was critical to deliver Brexit by 31 October. While acknowledging that most centrist Tories will not countenance a no-deal exit, he said that any government should prepare for one. "The more determined we are to pursue no-deal, the less likely we will have to deploy it."

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And there you have it, says Daniel Finkelstein in The Times. Unfortunately, no candidate, Johnson included, has a "brilliant but secret" solution to Brexit. "If he hasn't already gone public with a startling scheme," he hasn't got one. Quite, says Marina Hyde in The Guardian. Ultimately, "a new face' is going to solve the Tory party's underlying problems about as much as a new face' used to solve Michael Jackson's underlying problems". My advice is to start drinking as soon as you see the opening credits for this election's TV debates. "Then keep doing it until the mid-2030s."

Emily has extensive experience in the world of journalism. She has worked on MoneyWeek for more than 20 years as a former assistant editor and writer. Emily has previously worked on titles including The Times as a Deputy Features Editor, Commissioning Editor at The Independent Sunday Review, The Daily Telegraph, and she spent three years at women's lifestyle magazine Marie Claire as a features writer for three years, early on in her career.

On MoneyWeek, Emily’s coverage includes Brexit and global markets such as Russia and China. Aside from her writing, Emily is a Nutritional Therapist and she runs her own business called Root Branch Nutrition in Oxfordshire, where she offers consultations and workshops on nutrition and health.