May’s last stand

The prime minister’s “new deal” smelt fishily familiar. MPs are likely to pass on it. Emily Hohler reports.


The PM is on her way out
(Image credit: Copyright (c) 2019 Shutterstock. No use without permission.)

Theresa May "made her final big gamble" as prime minister on Tuesday, offering Labour a "new deal" that included the possibility of a second EU referendum, say Laura Hughes, George Parker and Sebastian Payne in the Financial Times.

However, her ten-point plan, aimed at cross-party consensus, was "declared dead on arrival" by angry Conservative eurosceptics, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called it a "repackaging of the same old bad deal". MPs are due to vote on May's new offer in the first week of June, but the vote has not been confirmed and some Tory MPs are calling for May to stand down "rather than risk another humiliation in the House of Commons".

Going down like a lead balloon

No wonder it went down like a lead balloon, says Harry Yorke in The Daily Telegraph 26 Conservative MPs who backed the deal in March, including Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, David Davis, Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg, said they would "switch back to opposing it", while sources close to the 20-strong group of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats have "indicated that only a handful will switch sides". The DUP and Labour confirmed they will reject it.

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"By adding the opportunity for a second referendum [and] a customs union, and by threatening that she will stop her successor from reversing anything by implementing binding legislation, this was perhaps the greatest hijacking of the referendum yet seen," says Iain Duncan Smith in The Daily Telegraph, who can think of "no more effective way" of encouraging voters to desert the Conservatives and vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections.

The Brexit confusion means that these elections, which historically have low turnouts, "stand to be consequential", says Yasmeen Serhan in The Atlantic. They will provide a "snapshot of where the public stands on Brexit" three years on from the referendum, and perhaps most importantly, "signal which voters are most mobilised to turn out in future elections".

Whatever happens, we can be "pretty sure" that Theresa May is on her way out, says James Blitz in the Financial Times. Assuming she departs without a deal, this along with what looks to be a "thumping victory" by the Brexit Party in the European elections will define the nature of the Tory leadership contest. May's failure will suit those like Johnson who want to "ram home a harder, cleaner Brexit", splitting the party and the country. The idea that a clean, no-deal Brexit would "work out just fine because of the provisions of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) treaty" simply isn't true, say Anand Menon and Catherine Barnard in The Guardian.

If Britain leaves without a deal, many of the laws that govern our interaction with the EU will simply "cease to apply". This will "mean significant problems", particularly relating to travel and trade, including potentially "crippling" tariffs and border delays. "No other major trading nation trades purely on WTO terms." To take just one example, 750 UK-based TV channels will have to stop broadcasting in Europe or move there. The "no-deal slogan is appealing in its simplicity", but its supporters should be honest about the consequences.


Europe is now a "cacophonous" political landscape

Populists gain ground in Europe

While it is true that Brussels is "prone to regulatory excess and plagued by a lack of popular legitimacy", its flaws "pale in comparison to the dangers posed by its critics". Left unchecked, the contagion of populism will "corrode Europe's identityas a democratic union"and "weaken Europe'sinfluence abroad".

As it stands, these elections are set to create the most "fragmented and fractious European parliament" in history, say Patrick Scottand Ashley Kirk in The Daily Telegraph. The two largest groups, the centre-right European People's Party and centre-left Socialists & Democrats, are expected to "shed support", while eurosceptic parties, notes Romesh Ratnesar on Bloomberg, are "on track to win more than one third of the seats", forming a unified voting bloc with real clout.

At both national andpan-European levels, leadersneed to understand whatis fuelling populism a "cacophonous" landscapethat is ideologically and demographically diverse and come up with "concrete solutions", says Bloomberg. Above all, this means expanding economic opportunity for the poor, reforming Europe's immigration system and making EU institutions more accountable. This won't be easy and it won't happen overnight, "but for the sake of Europe's future, it needs to start now".

Emily Hohler

Emily has extensive experience in the world of journalism. She has worked on MoneyWeek for more than 20 years as a former assistant editor and writer. Emily has previously worked on titles including The Times as a Deputy Features Editor, Commissioning Editor at The Independent Sunday Review, The Daily Telegraph, and she spent three years at women's lifestyle magazine Marie Claire as a features writer for three years, early on in her career. 

On MoneyWeek, Emily’s coverage includes Brexit and global markets such as Russia and China. Aside from her writing, Emily is a Nutritional Therapist and she runs her own business called Root Branch Nutrition in Oxfordshire, where she offers consultations and workshops on nutrition and health.