China, the 'least sick patient on the ward', is still looking peaky

China's GDP growth fell to its lowest since 1992. But the country's $585bn stimulus package is beginning to bear fruit.

Investors across the world have been pinning their hopes on the notion that the downturn may be ending. In most markets this is wishful thinking but in China the latest data really do appear to point to "bamboo shoots of recovery", as The Economist puts it. China's $585bn stimulus package is bearing fruit.

GDP growth fell to 6.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the lowest such figure since 1992. But compared with the fourth quarter, there has been a strong improvement. China's statisticians don't calculate growth in this way, but JPMorgan reckons that GDP increased by an annualised 6% between January and March after almost stalling in the autumn; according to Citigroup, the annualised increase in the first quarter was around 5%, after less than 1% in the fourth quarter.

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