From 1990 to 2018, China managed to grow its GDP 35 times, while American GDP merely tripled and Germany’s doubled. And this steep trajectory is expected to endure. By 2030, the US will increase the value of its goods and services by another 25% or so, and Germany is likely to be 17% bigger.
China’s economy may balloon by 85% as increasingly widespread automation in factories gives productivity a big fillip, says Sebastian Kirsch in WirtschaftsWoche. China could therefore be the single biggest driver of global growth over the next decade.
But it’s hardly guaranteed, says The New York Times. An economic slump, lack of innovation or high corporate debt levels could get in the way.
“Frankly I don’t know what’s more frightening – that the FAANG stocks lost more than $1trn in just a few months or that investors drove them higher by more than $1trn in just a few months without any material change in circumstances. Now investors are wrestling with the fact that Facebook is a fundamentally dishonest company that steals its customers’ data and privacy for a living, Apple is a victim of its own success and faces the law of large numbers, Amazon cannot trade at infinity-times earnings forever, Netflix can’t simply spend endless amounts of money forever, and Google earns virtually all its money from annoying ads that nobody wants to see… none of the FAANGs contributes meaningfully to the productive capacity of the economy but… feed solipsistic activities like social media and shopping… [this] is not the sign of a healthy society or economy.”
The Credit Strategist