Why gold is losing its lustre

published 1 June 2018

Irascible and capricious, Donald Trump would trigger a series of geopolitical crises and give gold, widely viewed as a safe haven, a boost or so many investors assumed. Yet "remarkably, after all the excitement" since he won the presidency, says John Authers in the Financial Times, gold "is almost exactly where it was on election day". It has slipped by 5% or so from January's 17-month high and now costs about $1,300 an ounce.

This is partly because investors have got used to "violence, political turmoil and uncertainty", Brian Larose of ICAP Technical Analysis told Barron's. Trump's bark has also so far at least proved worse than his bite, so the markets have become inured to his tendency to pick fights.

Meanwhile, gold is an asset that thrives on bad news, so robust worldwide growth, and the gradual increase in long- and short-term interest rates, undermine its appeal: gold offers no yield. The strengthening dollar hasn't helped either. Gold is priced in dollars so a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

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Investors should nonetheless continue to hold 5%-10% of their portfolios in gold. It is an insurance policy against a jump in inflation which may not be far away, given how tight labour markets are in the US and Britain because it maintains its value. And with the euro crisis flaring up again, the world has gained another potential geopolitical flashpoint.

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.