First President Trump – next Prime Minister Corbyn?

Donald Trump defied the odds and took the American presidency. Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn repeat the trick? Stuart Watkins reports

The chances of Jeremy Corbyn leading his Labour party to victory in the next general election look remote. William Hill puts the odds of a Labour majority at the next general election at 6/1. Polls have Labour lagging behind the Tories by as many as ten points which, when new constituency boundaries are taken into account, implies that the Conservatives will secure a 70-seat majority come 2020, reported The Independent earlier this year. More recent polls tell a similar story equally if not more gloomy from Labour's point of view. In short, a Corbyn victory is about as likely as well, about as likely as Britain voting to leave the EU, or Donald Trump winning the American presidency.

But regardless of whether Corbyn can repeat the trick, Labour is the official opposition and its economic plans deserve scrutiny, as Daniel Mahoney points out on the CapX website. Mahoney and Tim Knox recently published a report for the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), a right-wing think tank, which did just that. So should we be worried by the prospects of a Corbyn victory? The authors think so the challenges of Brexit will pale in comparison, they think. Their report analysed Labour's current policy proposals in five areas: infrastructure, employment legislation, welfare, tuition fees and shale gas. And the cost of Labour's proposed measures in those areas alone is "simply enormous". It comes out at a cost to taxpayers of around £17,500 per family over just one parliamentary term (see table). Such a bill would cause "real chaos for families up and down the country", says Mahoney.

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Labour's next tax bombshell?

Stuart Watkins
Comment editor, MoneyWeek

Stuart graduated from the University of Leeds with an honours degree in biochemistry and molecular biology, and from Bath Spa University College with a postgraduate diploma in creative writing. 

He started his career in journalism working on newspapers and magazines for the medical profession before joining MoneyWeek shortly after its first issue appeared in November 2000. He has worked for the magazine ever since, and is now the comment editor. 

He has long had an interest in political economy and philosophy and writes occasional think pieces on this theme for the magazine, as well as a weekly round up of the best blogs in finance. 

His work has appeared in The Lancet and The Idler and in numerous other small-press and online publications.