China's currency, the yuan renminbi, fell by 1.9% against the dollar on Tuesday, the biggest move since the current currency regime was introduced two decades ago, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) devalued the currency. It slid by another 1.6% the next day.
The Chinese central bank has effectively been keeping the yuan pegged to the dollar, setting a fixed rate every day and allowing it to trade within 2% on either side of that rate. But on Tuesday it moved the fix by 1.9% and said in future that it would base the fix on the previous day's market rate rather than its own judgement. As a result, the yuan fell by a further 1.6% on Wednesday.
What the commentators said
On the other hand, continued Pratley, the Chinese economy may be even weaker than the official data, "which nobody trusts anyway". So the government may be trying to boost exporters through currency devaluation, making Chinese goods cheaper for overseas buyers.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
That could spark a currency war in the region. As emerging market currencies slide, exporting "waves of deflation to the West", said Albert Edwards of Societe Generale, they will overwhelm lacklustre developed world profitability, taking us back to "outright recession".
Don't panic yet, said James Mackintosh in the Financial Times. For one thing, the yuan has been very strong in the round: since last summer it has climbed by 20% against the euro and the yen; in real trade-weighted terms, it is up by 17% since early 2014. So you can see why the government wants to weaken it.
On the other hand, as far as a devaluation is concerned, a big one-off move of, say, 20%, would make more sense than a series of little steps.
For now, it seems Beijing is killing two birds with one stone. It's allowing market forces more influence over the currency, which, given weak recent data, "conveniently means a weaker" yuan.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at BaslowMoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraudProperty tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
