Germany's economy has been trumpeted as a new Wirtschaftswunder, or economic miracle, in recent years. So analysts have been hoping that Germany can lift the rest of the eurozone out of the mire.
Forget it, says John Hulsman of the John C Hulsman global political risk consultancy. There is a "strong case that not only can Berlin not save the rest of the continent, it will be hard-pressed to save itself".
For starters, "the German economy has passed its peak for now", says Thomas Gitzel of VB Bank.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
In the past decade, over half of Germany's growth has come from exports. But Germany's main export market, the eurozone, is stagnating and the Ukraine crisis has fuelled fears of a trade war. So it's hard to see much momentum developing in exports.
Long-term prospects are weak
The population, and hence the work force, is set to shrink. In 2060, Germanyis expected to have a population of64 million, from 80 million in 2020. The working-age population will fall by more than 10% between 2015 and 2030.
The upshot? According to the OECD, a rich country think tank, potential annual economic growth will fall to below 1% within the next decade.
There are two main drivers of economic output: the size of the workforce, and its productivity. To make up for the demographic drag, Germany will have to give its productivity a massive boost. Unfortunately, it shows no sign of doing so. Instead, recent moves have been in the opposite direction.
One way to boost productivity, as The Economist points out, is to raise investment in human and physical capital. But spending on education in Germany is lower than in other developed countries, and it is starting to show. Employers are now reporting skills shortages across a range of industries.
Meanwhile, overall investment has actually fallen from21.5% of GDP to 17.2% since 2000. "The government is not only investingtoo little in infrastructure, but also spending too little on maintenance." Businesses have reined in spending too.
One reason for this is that energy costs have risen steeply of late. German industrial power costs are 19% above the European Union average and have climbed by 60% since 2007, compared to increases of about 10% in the US and China, says Bjrn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Centre in the Financial Times. Germany abandoned nuclear power in 2011 and is trying to ensure that renewables fill the gap.
But the huge subsidies required have raised bills for households and businesses as the state attempts to recoup some ofthe cost. It's extremely bad news for industry's competitiveness.
Heading for the iceberg
For instance, notesThe Economist, prices for the services of architects and building engineers are regulated, "a restrictive arrangement unique to Germany within the EU".
But instead of tackling these issues, the government has actually undone previous reforms that bolstered competitiveness. The pension age, raised to 67 in the mid-2000s, has been lowered to 63 for those in work for 45 years. So state spending will increase.
A relatively high national minimum wage, as opposed to sector-wide deals hammered out between unions and employers, is likely to stifle job growth.A clampdown on temporary workers is also looming. All these backward steps have also discouraged investment.
Add all this up, and Germany today resembles the Titanic, says Eric Schweitzer, the president of Germany's Chambers of Commerce and Industry. "Everyone is partying and no one sees the threat of the looming iceberg."
Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.
After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.
His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.
Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.
In the doghouse: hundreds of investment funds are underperforming - is it time to sell?
News The latest Spot The Dog research from Bestinvest reveals 151 funds are failing to beat their benchmark. We reveal the worst performers
By Marc Shoffman Published
Nationwide: House prices creep up for the first time in over a year
Nationwide’s latest house price index reveals property prices are finally rising. Will this pattern continue in 2024?
By Vaishali Varu Published