Mervyn King is right to be cautious on interest rates

If I were Mervyn King, I suspect I wouldn't be brave enough to raise interest rates, says Merryn Somerset Webb.

If I were Mervyn King, would I vote to raise interest rates? I suspect I wouldn't be quite brave enough. With the rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index at 4% and the Retail Price Index rate at 5.1%, there is no doubt inflation is uncomfortably high. But that doesn't mean we can, or should, try to do much about it.

Anyone in doubt as to the fragility of the UK economy need only look back at the most recent economic data. GDP growth is flat at best. Unemployment is still rising, with youth unemployment at a record high somewhere over 20%. Our productivity is collapsing. And the fact that the base rate is low doesn't mean for a second that the credit environment is particularly easy. Rates on personal loans and credit cards regularly hit new highs; getting a mortgage remains a distant dream for the average would-be first-time home buyer; and as John Stepek pointed out in MoneyMorning this week, as the year goes on, things will get much worse.

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Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.