US manufacturing growth takes a tumble

As promised… following on from our jobless claims blog, here’s the latest on today’s US economic indicators.

The blue line on the chart below shows the just released ‘Empire’ index. This gives a guide to business conditions for New York manufacturers. If the index is above zero – as it is now, although it’s at a seven-month low – conditions are still improving.

But a fast-falling blue line means that US economic growth is slowing sharply.

The green line is the ‘Philadelphia Fed’ index, which measures regional changes in American business growth. Again, a green line that’s dropping towards zero is a bad sign for US businesses. And the ‘Philly Fed’ has just hit an 11-month low.


Source: Bloomberg

The red line is last quarter’s US GDP growth. No prizes for where that’s heading, particularly after today’s poor manufacturing production figures (a 0.4% monthly decline).

“Today’s data suggests the US industrial recovery is rapidly losing momentum”, says Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics.

In other words, double dip, here we come…