The trades of the decade
In 2000, Bill Bonner announced his first ‘trade of the decade’. Sell stocks, buy gold. Anyone who did so should have done very well indeed. So we’ve been waiting for a decision from Bill on his next trade of the decade. It came this week. Sell US Treasuries, buy Japan.
I can’t find much to argue with here. We’ve been bullish on Japan for a few years. While things haven’t exactly gone our way, the case for buying has got better, rather than worse. The currency is weakening, which should help the export market. Japanese stocks, particularly small caps, remain ludicrously cheap.
This year, says Wall Street veteran Byron Wien, investors may finally “focus on the attractive valuations of dozens of medium-sized companies in a market selling at one quarter of its 1989 high”. Note that the TSE Small Index trades on a price/book ratio of 0.77 times. That’s got to make it the world’s cheapest index.
• Read the full editor’s letter here: The trades of the decade