NS&I has increased the rates on nine of its savings accounts as it looks to draw in customers and meet its financing target.

The Treasury-backed bank increased rates on one, two, three and five-year fixed bonds and a green savings bond today (23 June).

The rise in the fixed bonds comes as NS&I looks to meet its net financing target for the 2026/27 financial year of £15 billion, up from £13 billion in 2025/26.

The financing target is set by the government, which can influence what rates NS&I offers on its accounts. If the target is higher, NS&I may raise interest rates.

It is the third time NS&I has hiked interest rates on the one, two, three and five-year fixed-rate bonds in 2026.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at investment platform AJ Bell, said: “The savings market is impressively competitive right now, and NS&I has entered the fray.

“Banks are pulling out all the stops to compete, keeping fixed rate deals higher and forcing NS&I to raise rates again to attract the cash it needs.”

Which NS&I accounts will pay more?

The interest rates have been raised on the following nine accounts:

Credit: NS&I

You can open one of the eight Guaranteed Growth or Income bonds with a minimum investment of £500 and save a maximum of £1 million.

You can open the Green Savings Bonds with a minimum £100 investment and hold a maximum of £100,000.

You cannot withdraw funds early as all nine accounts are fixed-term while you also cannot access the money until the end of the term.

After the accounts mature, you can withdraw any cash or reinvest it into a new NS&I account.

You can apply for the accounts on the NS&I website.

How do NS&I's savings accounts compare to others on the market?

While the boost in rates is good news for savers, there are slightly better options if you want to get the top rate.

The better deals are with smaller providers, but they are protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

Customers can get a 4.81% interest rate with StreamBank on its one-year bond, as well as 4.8% with Afin Bank.

In terms of two-year fixed-rate deals, Market Harborough Building Society is offering a 4.86% interest rate on its two-year bond while Afin Bank is offering a two-year bond paying 4.85% interest.

Afin Bank is also offering the most competitive rate on three-year fixed-rate bonds (4.85%) while thisbank has a three-year fixed bond paying 4.82% in interest.

Meanwhile, Afin Bank’s five-year fixed-term bond pays 4.9% interest while Atom Bank has a five-year fixed bond paying 4.85%.

NS&I’s Green Savings Bond has shot up the rankings and is now the joint-second best green savings account on the market, according to Moneyfacts, beaten only by Castle Trust Bank’s three-year e-Saver account paying 4.54% interest.

Coles said the significant hike to the rate on the Green Savings Bond suggested “the previous policy of hoping green-conscious savers would be happier to overlook a much lower rate for the bonds just wasn’t working in attracting the cash” NS&I wanted.

Santander has launched a market-leading regular savings account which pays an interest rate of 8%.

The account is open to new and existing customers with a qualifying Santander current account, including: Santander Everyday, Edge, Edge Student, Edge Up and Explorer.

The Everyday and Edge Student current accounts are fee-free while the other three charge up to £17 a month.

You must be 16 or over and live in the UK to apply for the regular saver.

Customers can open Santander’s regular saver with just £1 and save up to a maximum of £200 every month.

The 8% interest rate includes a 5% bonus for the first 12 months. After 12 months, it falls to 3%. The interest rate is variable meaning it could go up or down at any point.

Money can be withdrawn from the account anytime penalty-free.

Jessica Sheldon, MoneyWeek's deputy digital editor, added: "While an 8% interest rate is certainly eye-catching, restrictions on monthly contributions mean savers might not end up with as much interest as they think they would with a regular savings account, so it’s worth considering whether it’s the best option for you.”

“It’s a good idea to regularly check the best rates for savings accounts, and set a reminder to review the account once a bonus rate period ends.”

How does Santander’s regular savings account compare to the rest of the market?

When it comes to headline interest rate, Santander’s regular savings account pays the most on the market as of 23 June.

The next best account in terms of rate is Zopa’s regular saver paying 7.1% interest, followed by The Co-operative Bank’s regular saver paying 7%.

However, you could earn more interest with The Co-operative Bank’s regular saver as it lets you add £250 into the account each month.

Assuming you added the maximum £200 into the Santander regular saver each month, didn’t withdraw any money and the interest rate stayed the same, you could earn £104 in interest over the course of a year.

But, if you paid the maximum £250 per month into The Co-operative Bank’s regular saver, you could earn £114 over the year, assuming no withdrawals or changes to the interest rate.

Is a regular savings account the best option for you?

Regular savings accounts may not be as attractive as they seem, as the headline interest rate only applies to money that is saved for a whole year – meaning the first month’s deposit.

The second month’s deposit is only in the account for 11 months of that year, so you only earn eleven twelfths of the interest rate.

Therefore, on average, you’re effectively getting half the headline rate advertised.

This means, if you already have a lump sum, you could get more interest by putting the money into an easy-access or fixed rate savings account instead.

For example, you would get £104 in interest by drip-feeding £2,400 into Santander’s regular savings account over 12 months, based on no withdrawals being made and the interest rate remaining at 8%.

However, if you added a lump sum of £2,400 into the top-paying easy-access savings account, currently Chase which pays 4.5%, at the end of the year you would have earned £110 in interest.

The past decade has been a busy time for global markets, which have experienced countless shocks and transformations.

Each shock inevitably creates winners and losers. Take Nvidia for example. In 2016, few would have expected that a firm specialising in making computer components for gaming would become the most valuable company in the world – and yet it has.

Nvidia’s valuation is a result of it occupying a unique position. The firm’s chips, initially made to help process computer graphics for video games, are now incredibly valuable to the development of AI models.

Nvidia was, and still is, a leader in a market segment where demand for its goods increased faster than supply – it occupied a ‘bottleneck’.

These bottlenecks – firms with a unique place in markets that will be vital in a changing economy and showing the potential for generating value – hold clear appeal for the managers of Monks Investment Trust (LON: MNKS).

Monks is run by Baillie Gifford, the investment manager which also looks after the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON: SMT), one of the most popular funds for DIY investors.

While both trusts aim to invest in themes and companies with the potential to change the world, Michael Taylor, one of the managers of Monks, said the two trusts take different approaches.

Taylor said: “Some do things that will not strike you as exceptional but they do it well and the returns to shareholders may well be exceptional in the long run. We seek out and celebrate a diversity of growth businesses.”

That diversity is reflected in its holdings. Compared with the more concentrated Scottish Mortgage, where the top 10 names make up around 54% of the portfolio, Monks’ top 10 comprise around 36% of its total.

Growth investing in the age of the hyperscaler

Broadly, Monks’ investments sit in one of three categories: rapid growth, growth stalwarts and cyclical growth.

Rapid growth businesses include publicly listed firms like Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and other big-tech darlings, including SpaceX.

While these stocks have dominated broader index returns, their rapid growth has meant that more diversified trusts like Monks, which is long-term growth-oriented, has struggled to beat its index in recent years.

Further, the rapid nature of big tech’s growth means pressure on the resources needed to support it, with parts of the value chain unable to respond fast enough.

Taylor said this is where such bottlenecks are found, and where subsequent value can accrue.

Investing in the AI bottleneck

“What has often been in scarce supply historically has been intelligence. Coders, designers and skilled, knowledgeable workers. The business models that dominated had these people and they didn’t need much of the physical stuff,” said Taylor.

However, with the AI revolution, requisite intelligence is becoming less scarce and this trend may be set to flip.

Now, these opportunities – the AI-centred resources in short supply – are not human but physical. Taylor is looking at data centres and semiconductors, for example.

Take Disco Corporation, a Japanese firm that Taylor pointed out occupies a niche part of the AI value chain. It makes precision tools for use in the semiconductor industry, producing machines that can cut, polish and grind silicon.

As chips continuously decrease in size the demand for Disco’s machines, which cut silicon to a fifth of the width of a human hair, looks set to increase. The business is well-placed to provide growth in this area.

Taylor also picked out Freeport McMoRan, a copper miner heavily geared towards the US. It is set to benefit from higher copper demand as a result of increased electrification, including additional AI-related infrastructure like data centres.

Freeport’s US tilt is the bottleneck Monks has identified. In a world of tariffs, it is well-placed in the supply chain to provide copper to US firms, Taylor said.

But he added these positioning advantages are not enough for a firm to be successful.

“Not all businesses in the real world will develop or provide great outcomes. You need to pick the right companies with the right teams, and you need to pick a bottleneck which will endure through time.”

An ageing population presents unique opportunities

None of us are getting any younger. Quite the opposite, for some developed economies, where the birth rate is declining and life expectancy growing .

In 2022, around 19% of the British population was aged 65 or over but projections warn that by 2072, this figure could rise to around 27%.

It is a similar story in the US, where around 18% of the population is 65 years or older and projected to rise to 23% by 2050.

An ageing population presents both unique challenges and opportunities.

One example is the funeral industry, where an increasingly older population and rising death rate is set to increase demand for funeral services.

Taylor named Service Corporation International, which lands in the ‘growth stalwart’ category of Monks’ investments – firms he described as growing at a “statesman-like pace”.

Service Corp seeks to professionalise and consolidate the funeral industry. The company has been long-held by Monks as it’s set to benefit from the rising death rate that comes with an older population.

Taylor noted this investment is “far from exciting, but it’s steady, it’s dependable and grows at an above-index rate. It’s the biggest company in that industry and yet it is only 15% of the market, so we expect that figure to go up over time.

“Now, the market is always expecting that kind of business to experience a fade in its growth rate but we have the confidence that the duration of its growth is going to be remarkable,” Taylor added.

Growth can be found in less obvious places too

While the prevailing narrative in the market is how AI will transform (or potentially crash) the economy, Taylor noted that such narratives are simplifications, with the real world much more complex.

“There is a world of growth beyond just artificial intelligence,” he said.

Healthcare, for example, saw funding dry up after the pandemic. While that period itself was difficult for healthcare firms, it presents a new opportunity.

For example, access to new drugs. The bottleneck here is the length of time it can take for newly discovered drugs to come to market as smaller biotech companies can find it difficult to deal with the process.

Last year, Monks looked at this growth opportunity and invested in a firm called Medpace that designs, implements and analyses clinical trials for smaller biotech firms, helping reduce the time for their drugs to come to market.

Another example is Ensign Group, which Monks also invests in. This firm specialises in running nursing facilities that provide assisted living, rehabilitative and post-acute care. It has expanded to take care of over 300 businesses offering these facilities, and demand is set to soar with an ageing population.

While healthcare is perhaps less exciting than AI, it nevertheless has the potential to tell an exceptional growth story, bringing possible profits for investors who correctly identify the firms best-placed to make the most of a world full of bottlenecks.

Speculation has ramped up about who will be the next UK prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer kicked off a Labour leadership election by resigning on Monday (23 June).

Nominations will open on 9 July and end by the summer recess on 16 July.

The next prime minister may have different priorities to the current government, which has been working on several tax shake-ups including the mansion tax, cash ISA reforms and changes to pensions and inheritance tax rules.

New Labour MP and former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is the only candidate to have put his name forward so far, as many expected following his by-election win last week.

Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, said: “The Labour leadership contest will dominate the summer, with a new prime minister expected to take office when Parliament returns in September. Investors will be looking for a clear handover, a credible economic team and an early commitment to fiscal discipline.”

Who will replace Keir Starmer?

Burnham is the only name officially in the ring so far to become the next prime minister.

He has also been backed by former health secretary Wes Streeting, who was seen as a potential candidate.

No other Labour MPs have confirmed that they will run for the leadership role yet.

Burnham hasn’t confirmed what his policies will be, although he may have to stick to manifesto commitments to not raise income tax, VAT or national insurance.

He has previously backed reforming council tax and stamp duty.

Inheritance tax changes could also be a possibility. As health secretary in 2009, Burnham suggested a flat 10% charge applied to all estates, with the money being used to fund social care for all.

More recently, on BBC Question Time in June, he said he would look at raising the personal tax allowance and also said there was “definitely a case” for the return of a 50% top rate of tax for the wealthiest.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm and FX specialists Ebury, said: "Burnham sits firmly to the left of the Labour Party, and his record as mayor points to a significant step-up in public spending, a higher tax burden and greater gilt issuance.

“This is an experiment that the UK can ill-afford. Debt is at its highest relative to GDP since the 1960s, growth is weak, debt-servicing costs are already vast and the limited fiscal headroom leaves almost no room to manoeuvre, risking a self-reinforcing borrowing and growth trap.”

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist for Wealth Club, added that Burnham has tried to reassure markets by signalling that he will largely stick to fiscal rules and take a more cautious approach to spending.

She said: “He appears willing to tackle the UK's large benefits bill, arguing that welfare reform should focus on helping more people into work. Investors will also be scrutinising how Burnham's interventionist instincts translate into national economic policy. He has argued that the government should play a more active role in shaping economic outcomes, particularly through greater investment in regions outside London and the South East.

“He is also expected to push for further devolution of economic powers and has indicated support for a stronger public role in key sectors and infrastructure. However, concerns are bubbling that greater state involvement could deter private investment if it creates additional costs or regulatory burdens.”

Local supporters suggest the regeneration he has brought to Greater Manchester could be replicated nationally.

Property developer Mike Ingall, chief executive of Allied London, who has worked with Burnham on developments in Manchester including the technology and media campus Campfield, said: “He understands investment and that is the only way to get growth rather than just tax and spend.”

There have been rumours in the past that former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner could stand.

Rayner also sits on the left of the party.

Who could be in the new cabinet?

The prime minister is just one role that is likely to be up for grabs in July.

Whoever becomes the next Labour leader and prime minister is likely to want to appoint their own ministers and there are rumours that chancellor Rachel Reeves could be replaced.

Rob Morgan, chief investment analyst at Charles Stanley Direct, said: “Until we know more about the composition of the cabinet and likely policy direction it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from the soundbites heard so far. However, bolder moves on taxation certainly appear to be a possibility, so it’s a time for anyone planning their finances to be on high alert for changes.

“Already the Budget in the autumn looms large as a potentially highly consequential event. Yet given we don't even know the identity of the chancellor at this stage we can make no conclusions.”

Currie said a chancellor with a reputation for fiscal discipline could reassure markets but warned: “A more interventionist appointment, or a candidate perceived to be less disciplined with spending could have the opposite effect.”

Morgan added that there is some comfort in the fact that marked changes to taxation or other policies affecting personal finances rarely happen overnight and usually come with a long lead in time.

He said: “So while vigilance is essential there is likely plenty of time to assess any consequences, good or bad, that fall out of a change of political leadership.”

The Labour leadership election may be set to dominate the news agenda and dinner party conversations for the next month or so but it may not have as much of an impact on your investments as many fear.

Sir Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader this morning, paving way for a leadership election and a new prime minister to be appointed before the summer recess.

Newly-appointed Labour MP Andy Burnham is the only candidate to have thrown his name in the ring so far and it is unclear what his policies will be and who else will challenge.

Stock markets don’t like uncertainty but investors have had to get used to plenty of political upheaval in recent years.

Starmer is the fifth prime minister to resign since 2016, starting with when David Cameron stepped down in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

The most recent resignation before that was Labour leader Tony Blair in 2007.

But exclusive analysis by wealth manager Quilter for MoneyWeek shows that while these resignations make good headlines, they don’t actually have a drastic impact on stock markets, which could be good news for investor portfolios.

What impact do leadership elections have on financial markets?

Quilter analysed economic indicators such as equities, gilts and the value of sterling against the dollar in the three month build up to a prime minister’s resignation and the three months after.

The analysis showed a mixed picture.

Tim Armitage, investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, said: “Leadership resignations often prompt headlines about market uncertainty, but history suggests markets do not react to resignations themselves, rather they respond to the underlying risks those resignations expose or resolve.

“Across recent UK history, market reactions tend to fall into three broad patterns – where the resignation follows an external shock, reflects a loss of policy credibility, or occurs against an already dominant macro backdrop.”

UK equities were up by 3.8% in the three months before Tony Blair stepped down in May 2007 and fell 7% in the three month aftermath.

But in some cases, such as the resignations of David Cameron in May 2016 and Liz Truss in October 2022, UK equities actually rose in the three month aftermath by 13.6% and 12.3% respectively.

Armitage added: “In the case of David Cameron, his resignation followed the Brexit referendum, which drove a sharp fall in sterling. While this created immediate volatility, it also supported UK equities and bonds due to the international earnings profile of many listed companies.

“In contrast, Liz Truss’ resignation followed a clear crisis of policy credibility linked to unfunded tax cuts. Markets had already reacted sharply, particularly in gilt yields, and stabilised as her departure removed a key source of uncertainty alongside intervention and reassurance from the Bank of England.”

The impact on sterling has also varied, falling by 7.2% against the dollar when Boris Johnson resigned in July 2022, but rising by 9.2% when Truss left Downing Street.

Armitage said: “Boris Johnson’s resignation came during a period dominated by global macro forces, namely rising inflation and the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meaning there was little discernible shift in market direction attributable to domestic political change.”

The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 don’t appear to have been impacted since Starmer’s resignation.

Armitage said: “For investors, the key takeaway is that political change tends to matter most when it alters confidence in fiscal and economic policy. Periods of uncertainty can create short-term volatility, but markets often stabilise quickly once a clearer policy direction emerges.

“Looking ahead, any market reaction to Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation will depend less on the event itself and more on whether it reduces or increases uncertainty around fiscal policy, regulation and economic direction. Early signals on policy continuity and key appointments are likely to be more important for investors than the leadership change alone.”

The key lesson appears to be that time in the market, rather than timing the market, remains the main policy that investors should follow.

Andrew Prosser, head of investments at InvestEngine, said: “Political instability – such as a change in prime minister – can create both risks and opportunities for investors but those who want to grow their money over the long term should not be worried. This upheaval may move markets in the short term, but history has shown markets always recover, and often quicker than expected.

“The investors who tend to come out ahead of periods like this are the ones who stay diversified and stay invested. Our advice is that long-term investors should avoid making knee-jerk decisions, ignore the noise and sit on their hands. Time in the market, as ever, matters more than timing the market.”

A new world calls for new stocks. In the VT De Lisle America Fund, we use the paradoxical combination of value plus momentum to find winners for the next decade. For 40 years, declining interest rates and disinflation created a powerful tailwind for steady growth stocks such as McDonald's, Nike and Procter & Gamble. Their predictability was rewarded with rising price-to-earnings (p/e) multiples, thus they strongly outperformed the market. That all changed in 2021 with the return of higher interest rates and inflation, combined with the launch in 2022 of ChatGPT, which funnelled capital into AI infrastructure.

Higher rates and inflation tend to push down p/e multiples and put pressure on profits due to rising costs of materials and labour. At the same time, the urgency to spend on building out AI pushed capital into different, previously unloved, parts of the economy: construction, manufacturing and blue-collar jobs. Investors like to find a comparison with past cycles. We think the 1970s provides the best precedent, but with the addition of AI. So how will that play out today?

Companies that own scarce real-world assets and have growing order backlogs gain pricing power in this new capital-expenditure-driven cycle, positioning them to thrive in the new industrial economy. Within these big macro themes, minor ones are also emerging. One we like is the break-up of old industrial conglomerates via “spin-offs” – the packaging of overlooked industrial assets into attractive new listed companies.

Three stocks for your portfolio

In 2025, Honeywell spun off its speciality chemicals division, Solstice Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: SOLS). Solstice holds an oligopolistic position in refrigerants (its cash cow, increasingly necessary for data-centre cooling) while expanding capacity in its specialist chemicals business, supplying America's semiconductor supply chain. But the hidden crown jewel is its stake in the only US uranium conversion facility – one of only seven in the world – and a scarce asset during a nuclear renaissance. Although expensive-looking at a high 20s p/e, its earnings power is underappreciated as its chip exposure grows and higher-priced uranium contracts begin to roll in.

Forum Energy Technologies (NYSE: FET) makes high-tech parts for oil wells and subsea exploration. It is a picks-and-shovels play on rising global energy needs due to AI and on the increasing complexity of extraction. Forum operates in a high-value niche and is a leading player in all its product lines. The company prides itself on its patented technical know-how, which makes it hard to compete against. Low reinvestment requirements also provide high levels of cash generation. Even after a near tripling over a year, we think Forum's stock is a buy given its cheapness relative to cash flow.

Demographic trends offer another type of steady growth. Pennant Group (Nasdaq: PNTG) owns, leases and operates care facilities for the elderly and sees the ageing population in the US as a steady tailwind to increase sales for years. Its ability to renovate old buildings to add value in a market where supply is constrained by the cost of new-builds is impressive. Growing demand and scarcer assets, plus entrepreneurial local management teams, are giving it the chance to execute its vision. Pennant trades on a low 20s p/e and has a high double-digit growth rate, giving it an enviable p/e to growth ratio of not much above one.

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Tadashi Yanai is living out his dream. Of all the many art books lining his wood-panelled office in Tokyo, the most “sacred text” turns out to be a Next catalogue from 1987, shot by the now famous Vogue and Vanity Fair photographer Koto Bolofo. “This inspired me most, back in the Eighties,” says Yanai, who at 77 is Japan's richest man with a fortune put at around $69bn. “Ordinary people looking cool and casual… I wanted to deliver this kind of clothing for current times. Clothes to make people happy.”

You know when a brand has conquered the zeitgeist when the vocabulary around it goes mainstream. For Uniqlo – the fast-fashion phenomenon with a mission to dress the world in its anonymously chic “wardrobe building blocks” – that moment came when the word “unibare” entered the lexicon, says The Times. It expresses the moment you realise that someone is wearing Uniqlo, “rather than anything more expensive”.

In April, shares in Fast Retailing – Uniqlo's parent company – hit a record high on the back of roaring overseas growth in the US and Europe, says Bloomberg. They've now gained 45% year-to-date. Fast Retailing is the third biggest apparel company in the world after Zara's Inditex and the H&M stable, and its humble brown paper bags have become a fixture from Oxford Street to Fifth Avenue.

In a business culture “famed for grey conformity”, Tadashi Yanai “can't help but swim against the tide”, says Time – happily flaunting his success despite local taboos against ostentatious wealth. He owns two golf courses on the Hawaiian island of Maui alone. Yet when you walk with him through Uniqlo he reveals some “quintessentially Japanese traits”, says Bloomberg Businessweek: “attention to detail, supply-chain prowess, minimalist aesthetics” – and frugality.

Tadashi Yanai was born into the rag trade

Tadashi Yanai grew up in the trade – his parents ran a menswear shop in Ube on the main Japanese island of Honshu. The event that changed his life was the Vietnam war, which interrupted his studies in political economy at Tokyo's Waseda University because of a student walk-out. The break enabled him to travel to the US and UK, where the proliferation of mid-market clothing shops planted a seed. In 1972, after a brief stint selling men's clothes for a supermarket chain, Tadashi Yanai was handed the keys to his father's now expanded business.

In 1984 he opened the first branch of the Unique Clothing Warehouse in Hiroshima to pursue a more casual style. The firm's big breakthrough came in 1998 – as Japan was reeling from its burst economic bubble – when Yanai opened Uniqlo's first Tokyo outlet and sold a lightweight fleece for just £15. “Every fourth Japanese consumer bought one.”

When Tadashi Yanai published his autobiography, One Win and Nine Losses, he had a cathartic time describing his many mistakes down the years – not least overhasty expansion efforts, which necessitated a humiliating retreat. These days, Uniqlo's expansion is more measured, but has a relentless quality, says The Times. Having targeted national capitals, it's going for the regions – in the past year, opening new British stores in Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Bristol. A series of designer collaborations – with minimalist Jil Sander and, latterly, Dior maestro Jonathan Anderson – has boosted the brand's appeal.

Tadashi Yanai, who is building sponsorship programmes with art galleries globally, has strong ideas about being “a force for good” and giving back to society. Yet he runs his own fiefdom like “a dictator”, says Time. With two sons now working in the business, questions about the succession abound. But he's giving nothing away. “When I get older my dream is to take a walk every day on the streets of London” – a continuing source of inspiration, he told The Telegraph in 2015. No sign of that happening any time soon.

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This year marks the tenth anniversary of an event that has proved to be of huge consequence for the UK stock market. No, not the Brexit referendum – 2016 was the year in which Japanese company SoftBank, led by founder and chief executive Masayoshi Son, acquired the UK's leading technology company, Arm, for £24 billion. Unlike American investors, professional UK fund managers became permanently disillusioned with the technology sector as a result of the collapse of the technology, media and telecoms bubble in 2000-2002, and so were delighted to be shot of its flagship domestic representative at a 40% premium to the prevailing share price.

With the yield on ten-year gilts at historic lows below 1.5%, pension funds were desperate to ditch equities and buy even more gilts, even leveraging up in their chase of the “liability-driven investment” delusion, which was to cost them hundreds of billions six years later. New solvency rules introduced after the 2008 financial crisis required insurance companies to invest in “safer, more liquid” securities, that is, short-dated gilts. Wealth managers could crow to their clients about short-term performance.

Only one major investor vehemently disagreed; James Anderson, the then manager of Scottish Mortgage Trust, bitterly criticised the sell-out on behalf of Baillie Gifford, with a holding of more than 10%. “We found it deeply depressing that Arm's management, and particularly its chairman, were so influenced by short-term shareholders.” Anderson said it was a premature sale of the UK's leading technology and intellectual property champions, “Britain's sole serious shot at building a global tech giant”.

In September 2023, Arm again went public when SoftBank floated the company on the New York Stock Exchange at a valuation of £40 billion, while retaining 90% of the shares. Unsurprisingly, pleas to list the shares in London were shunned, though Arm remains a Cambridge-based company. Since then, the shares have multiplied more than sixfold, although they are now down 17% from their early June peak.

Had Arm listed in the UK, it would be by far the biggest company on the London Stock Exchange. London is now only the world's eighth-largest stock market, accounting for just 3.1% of the MSCI All Countries World index. It has been steadily slipping down the rankings owing to its low exposure to the technology sector, which accounts for just 1% of the FTSE 100. This compares with 8%-9% in Europe, 27% in the US (not including Alphabet and Amazon) and 37% in Asia.

Britain's technology firms are condemned to stagnation

Also easily forgotten is the 2014 sale of Britain's DeepMind, a pioneer in AI, to Google for just £400 million. In 2006, US-based Illumina bought Solexa, the UK-based inventor of gene sequencing, for £315 million. It became the key building block in Illumina's climb to a market value of more than £50 billion (although the shares have fallen by two-thirds in the last five years). These and other examples show that Britain has a good record of creating and building technology champions, but that unambitious management, combined with uninterested and short-sighted institutional investors, means that they sell out rather than scale up in the way that American giants have shown is possible.

Without the “ecosystem” that results from successful technology firms, Britain's pool of talent will go elsewhere, there will be no pool of capital looking for the next potential breakthrough, a diminishing appetite for risk and no list of success stories to inspire future entrepreneurs. The London Stock Exchange has become a value trap – a shrinking pool of reasonably managed solid businesses with mediocre prospects. Such a market can have an occasional catch-up year of outperformance, but without a cadre of proper growth firms, is condemned to an ever-shrinking share of global capitalisation. Arm's sale to SoftBank, now Japan's largest company, didn't start this process, but it marked the point at which it became irreversible.

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Alphabet, Google's parent company, is listed in the US with a total value greater than that of the entire UK stock market. Billions of people use its search engine every day – indeed, the Google name has become so ubiquitous that it is now used as a verb around the globe. Yet there is more to Alphabet than Google.

Beyond search and advertising revenues lies an empire that includes everything from deep-sea cables to self-driving cars and energy storage. The business uses the billions harvested from search advertisements to fund massive bets on the future and is fast becoming one of the most influential companies in history.

The Alphabet name reflects a corporate mission to fund independent bets that produce “alpha” – the term in finance for an investment that outperforms the broader market. Alphabet wants to be the structure underpinning countless future innovations. The name signalled to the market that the firm was no longer just a search engine, but an incubator of new technology.

Alphabet's rise from Google search to global dominance

Search remains Alphabet's largest source of profits. Its enormous scale explains why the company can afford to fund so many broader ambitions. When the business launched from a garage in 1998, it was just one of many experimental search engines competing on the early World Wide Web. Its rapid rise to dominance was driven by a proprietary algorithm called PageRank. Unlike rival systems that mainly counted how often a keyword appeared on a page, Google ranked pages based on the quality and importance of links pointing towards them. A link from a respected university or major news site carried far more weight than one from an obscure blog. This breakthrough produced far more useful search results, triggering a wave of adoption that quickly led to dominance. Put simply, Google search worked much better than everything else.

Today, Google remains the search engine used by most. It controls more than 90% of the worldwide search market and processes billions of queries every day. Its closest rival, Microsoft's Bing, holds only a tiny share by comparison. Google's reach also extends far beyond its own homepage. The company provides the underlying search infrastructure for countless browsers and software applications around the world. Competitors struggle to replicate what Google has built because search engines improve through users' behaviour. The more people who use the platform, the more data it collects and the better the system becomes. By capturing most of the world's search data, Google continuously improves, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that keeps competitors behind.

This constant stream of searches is transformed into revenue through a system of paid results. When a user searches for a term with commercial value, the engine places sponsored links at the very top of the page, positioned directly above the information. Google avoids charging businesses a flat fee simply to display these links. Instead, it operates on a pay-per-click model, collecting a fee when a user selects a sponsored result. Because millions of consumers use the search box to find products, services and local businesses every second, these small fees accumulate into billions of dollars of highly predictable revenue.

This is so profitable because the underlying mechanics require little human involvement. Traditional advertising agencies only grow by hiring armies of account managers and media buyers to manage campaigns. Google removed much of this by building an automated, self-service advertising platform to run its pay-per-click business. Advertisers simply log into a dashboard, set their budgets and bid against one another for visibility tied to specific queries from users. Valuable searches, such as those related to legal or financial services, command extremely high advertising prices. This allows Google to generate enormous profits from everyday internet traffic without relying on large numbers of highly paid employees.

At the end of last year, Alphabet employed roughly 191,000 people worldwide. However, those workers are spread unevenly across the business. Most do not work directly on the core search or advertising operations. Instead, they are concentrated in labour-intensive divisions such as Google Cloud and areas such as compliance and other administration. The core systems and software that power Google's search engine require only a small group of engineers to maintain and monitor it. By the end of 2025, Alphabet was generating annual revenue equivalent to more than $2.1 million per employee, although the figure within search alone is probably far higher, perhaps as much as $10 million per employee. This ultra-low headcount relative to sales creates a self-operating engine that supports the rest of the organisation, funds Alphabet's broader ambitions and produces vast profits – thought to be $1 billion every two to three days.

Branching out into Google Cloud and beyond

The fastest-growing large-scale part of the business outside of search is Google Cloud. This division sells computing power and data storage to large corporations and public-sector organisations, providing a platform for businesses to build, host and run their own software applications. Unlike the search engine, the cloud business is inherently labour-intensive, requiring a global sales force. By the end of 2025, the unit had exceeded $70 billion in revenue, driven by demand for machine-learning applications. This segment spent years burning cash to build physical data centres, but has now matured into a highly profitable operation, generating billions in quarterly operating income. The third large division within Alphabet is subscriptions and devices. This includes premium, advertising-free access to YouTube, digital storage upgrades through Google One, which pools together personal consumer storage for Google Drive, Gmail and Google Photos. This is distinct from the corporate cloud, focusing instead on individual consumers' hardware, such as Pixel smartphones. Total consumers' subscriptions have climbed past 325 million globally. This division generates more than $50 billion annually.

What ultimately cements Alphabet's dominance is how seamlessly it intertwines these separate businesses. Google Video's early failure was solved by acquiring YouTube, for example, which was then deeply integrated into core search results. Google Maps was built to serve local search needs, but is now embedded directly into the Android operating system and Android Auto vehicles' dashboards. This interconnected web provides built-in, zero-cost marketing across the entire portfolio, making the user's experience smoother while locking consumers firmly inside Alphabet's systems.

The relentless flow of cash allows the parent company to invest on a scale few companies in history can match. Rather than returning profits to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks, Alphabet operates like a vast venture-capital fund. Its investment strategy is divided into three tiers. For near-term product improvements, it uses Google Labs, a fast-moving environment where software teams test early features, such as improved AI systems, directly with the public. For medium-term time horizons, the company focuses on strategic acquisitions, buying external platforms and scaling them over time. Finally, the long-term horizon is handled by X Development (formerly Google X), the “Moonshot Factory” created to back speculative technologies ranging from self-driving cars to grid-scale energy storage. In these ways, Alphabet channels its search, cloud and subscription revenues into tomorrow's cutting-edge technology.

Alphabet's formula for acquisitions

Alphabet has acquired more than 250 technology companies over the years. Each deal has followed a similar formula: acquire a promising but financially constrained technology and scale it using the company's engineering expertise and vast profits. Google Maps originated from Keyhole, a struggling start-up founded in 2001. Keyhole developed a 3D digital globe called EarthViewer 3D and even received early backing from America's Central Intelligence Agency. The technology was impressive, but the business model weak. Keyhole sold its software on physical CDs to real-estate firms and defence agencies. Google recognised that around a quarter of all web searches were location-related and acquired Keyhole in 2004 for roughly $35 million. It removed the expensive pricing, introduced a cleaner, more accessible interface, and relaunched the platform as Google Maps. In the process, it transformed a niche military-style tool into a free utility that has become almost as recognisable as the search engine itself.

The acquisition of YouTube in 2006 stemmed from Google's own failure in online video. Its in-house platform, Google Video, was losing ground to its rapidly growing rival. YouTube succeeded by offering a simple interface that allowed anyone to upload and stream videos easily. However, by the summer of 2006, the company was struggling under the weight of its own popularity. Hosting costs were soaring, while copyright lawsuits from traditional media companies threatened its survival. Realising Google Video had lost the battle, management stepped in with a $1.65 billion acquisition. The takeover rescued YouTube from likely insolvency and allowed Google to secure the leading destination for online video before legacy media companies could shut it down. By the end of 2025, YouTube was generating more than $40 billion in annual revenue.

The 2005 purchase of Android is probably the most successful acquisition. As a start-up, it had been developing an operating system for mobile handsets, but ran short of cash to fund engineering salaries. At the time of its purchase, it was a small company employing eight people and was bought for just $50 million. This was such a small sum at the time that it wasn't even disclosed to the stock market. The goal of the acquisition was to prevent competitors from blocking its search engine on mobile devices. By making Android free, Google rapidly came to dominate mobile software, eventually capturing more than 70% of the global smartphone market. This comparatively small investment helped ensure that the search business continued to grow even as smartphone usage overtook computer usage.

The 2014 acquisition of DeepMind secured Alphabet's lead in AI. The laboratory, which was founded in London by Demis Hassabis, Shane Legg, and Mustafa Suleyman, had assembled one of the world's strongest machine-learning research teams. DeepMind focused on neuroscience-inspired AI and deep reinforcement learning. Yet cutting-edge AI research is very expensive, requiring vast computing resources and highly paid engineers while producing little immediate revenue. Much of Hassabis's time was spent raising venture capital. Recognising that DeepMind needed the support of a company with deep pockets, the founders agreed to a £400 million sale to Google, with Hassabis taking on the role of CEO of the renamed Google DeepMind. The deal kept the research group based in London and provided the resources needed to pursue foundational scientific breakthroughs. That long-term backing ultimately paid off. Among other things, Hassabis's work on protein folding using DeepMind recently won the Nobel Prize in chemistry.

How Alphabet is shooting for the moon

Where Alphabet stands apart is its willingness to invest in technologies that may take decades to mature. The X Development division filters all ideas through a demanding three-part screening process to protect capital. Projects must address a global problem affecting millions, propose a radical breakthrough solution and rely completely on technology that does not yet exist. Incremental improvements are rejected outright. To encourage bold experimentation, X is also designed to reward failure. Teams are expected rigorously to test their ideas and can even receive bonuses for proving a project is technically or economically unworkable before significant resources are wasted.

This strategy has produced a trail of discarded technologies, including mysterious, giant floating barges intended to be high-end, floating marketing showrooms; a technology for storing renewable energy by pumping electricity into massive tanks of molten salt and chilled liquid; high-altitude, helium-filled balloons designed to float in the stratosphere, creating a shifting network to beam wireless internet down to remote rural communities. But the crown jewel of the moonshots to date is Waymo, the autonomous-vehicle division that began life in 2009. Waymo shows how a massive cash cushion allows a company to outlast an industry cycle. While some car makers promised self-driving fleets by 2018 only to scale back their ambitions when machine learning proved too difficult, Alphabet simply maintained its multi-billion-dollar funding trajectory. By refusing to rush out unproven systems to market, the division solved the major challenges.

Waymo has now achieved scale, with roughly 3,700 vehicles operating, servicing half a million paid rides per week. Its fleets of autonomous vehicles operate robotaxi networks across major American cities, including Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, completing passengers' trips without human drivers. In September of this year, it is due to launch in London. What began as a highly speculative experiment has matured into a genuine advancement in transportation.

Deep underwater, Alphabet is also building global subsea cable infrastructure. This is an ongoing project that has so far created a total of 60,000 miles of armoured cabling crisscrossing the oceans. To support the growth of its cloud services and advertising, Alphabet shifted from renting space on third-party telecommunications networks to owning its own. These subsea lines are the plumbing of the internet, moving vast amounts of data across the world at the speed of light. In owning this infrastructure itself, Alphabet ensures its consumer services operate with lower latency than that of competitors.

Is Alphabet worth owning?

Turning digital advertising revenue into real-world infrastructure requires enormous investment. For investors, the key question is whether these assets will create lasting value or simply become an expensive distraction. The shares of Alphabet rarely look cheap on any conventional valuation metric, but waiting for a deep-value entry point has been a fool's errand. Ever since the company listed on the stock market in 2004, there has never really been a bad time to buy its shares.

Not that the shares have risen consistently. Alphabet's shares have fallen quite significantly a few times over the years, dropping roughly 50% during the 2008 financial crisis and weathering several 20%-30% declines since. Every single decline has proved to be an exceptional buying opportunity, as the underlying earnings have moved relentlessly higher. This compounding has generated astonishing wealth, transforming its founders into centi-billionaires and ranking them among the wealthiest individuals on Earth. The model does not just reward senior executives. In 1999, when Google employed just 40 people, massage therapist Bonnie Brown joined the company part-time. Her pay was only $450 a week, but she also received stock options. Five years later, she retired a multi-millionaire and went on to create her own charitable foundation. Had she kept her shares, she would now be a billionaire.

Despite a massive market valuation of about $4.5 trillion, Alphabet is still growing remarkably quickly. A simple heuristic for evaluating growing companies is to ask whether the business can generate enough operating profit within five years to make its current enterprise value look cheap. Specifically, can its future operating profits reach a tenth of that valuation? For Alphabet, that means aiming for roughly $450 billion in annual operating profit. Last year it made about $190 billion and is forecast to grow at 20%-25% per annum for the next five years. At that level of growth, the company's current trajectory makes $450 billion perfectly feasible.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

The Gulf states have been crucial to the global economy ever since the first oil shock in 1974 broke the post-war monetary system and ushered in an era of high inflation. With the world's biggest concentrations of oil and gas in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, and with producers locked into the Opec oil-exporters cartel, which could switch supplies on and off at will, the region held the world's energy supplies in its hands. That gave its rulers immense power and the wealth to buy up a vast range of assets. Interest rates, equity prices and inflation all over the globe were often determined by events in that one small region of the world. It mattered.

That looks to have changed. As the US and Israel attacked Iran, there were plenty of dire warnings that the oil price would go to $150 a barrel, or perhaps even $200. Flights would have to be cancelled as we ran short of jet fuel; petrol would have to be rationed. The closure of shipping lanes would send chemical and fertiliser prices soaring, triggering food shortages and factory closures. The global economy would be plunged into recession. Central banks started to consider an emergency response.

In the event, none of that happened. The price of oil did go up sharply, rising from $60 a barrel to close to $120 shortly after the conflict started. But rather than spiralling out of control, it steadied and then started to fall again, dropping below $80 as Iran and the US agreed a 60-day ceasefire at the start of this week. There is little sign of food shortages, or any basic commodities running low, and there are still plenty of cheap flights available. Most of the European economies are sluggish, but that is for a whole host of reasons. They have not collapsed and the US is still doing well, with strong growth, plenty of new jobs and the stock market hitting record highs. Inflation has ticked up a little, but should come back down again as the price of oil falls.

In reality, the Gulf states just do not matter as much as they used to. There are three big reasons for that. To start with, there is a lot more oil in the world than there used to be. Despite all the catastrophic warnings during the 1980s and 1990s that the world would have run out of the stuff by now, there seems to be more of it than ever. The US has turned itself into both the largest producer and net exporter of oil in the world, largely because of fracking. Despite all the fear-mongering, more countries, such as Argentina and Mexico, are developing their own shale oil and gas reserves. After the US strikes on the country, Venezuela will start to restore its oil fields and it has the largest reserves in the world. Far from running out, there will soon be too much oil. The Gulf can't hold the world to ransom when the global market is awash with oil.

Why the Gulf states' money is no longer so important

Second, alternative energy is rising in importance all the time. We can all debate whether the drive to achieve net-zero is too rapid, but there is no turning back the clock to the fossil-fuel era now. China's huge electric-vehicle industry is not going to disappear, and most open car markets will be electric within a decade or so. Renewables account for 45% of electricity generation across the EU and already for 25% in the US, the world's largest economy (and that share is rising fast, with solar last month overtaking coal as a source of power). Oil is a shrinking market.

Finally, Gulf states' money is no longer so important. Dubai and Qatar will take time to recover from the bombing campaign launched by Iran. A lot of money invested around the world will have to be brought home to pay for reconstruction and cover losses. The region's wealth funds won't be splashing billions on trophy assets as have done for the last 20 years. In a world where Wall Street is minting space- and AI trillionaires, there is a lot of spare capital around. The Gulf states won't matter so much. Add it all up and one point is clear. The main lesson from the Iran war is that the Gulf states' influence has evaporated. They are part of a small region, which no longer matters very much except to the people who live there. Investors will still have plenty of things to worry about – but the Gulf states and their oil resources can be dropped from the list.

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Private debt went through a “golden moment” after the rapid post-pandemic rise in interest rates, said Jonathan Gray, president of alternative-asset giant Blackstone, in 2023. The question now is whether that golden moment is past. With interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, sovereign yields rising sharply, and cracks appearing last summer in US business development companies (BDCs), some investors wonder whether private debt is entering its first real test as an asset class – or even facing a day of reckoning.

Private debt is a broad label. It includes syndicated leveraged loans, direct lending, asset-backed finance and even fund financing. These distinctions matter. Syndicated loans are liquid and volatile, but trade at tighter yield spreads (ie, they promise lower returns). By contrast, direct lending – where investors such as funds lend directly to borrowers – is illiquid and assets are rarely marked to market.

Direct lending is often presented as the core of “true” private debt, due to its potential for higher risk-adjusted returns. So far, that record has proved hard to ignore for institutional investors. Spreads of around 550 basis points over base rates remain appealing, while reported default rates are still modest. As a result, it attracted large inflows from pension funds and insurers. Assets could reach $2.8 trillion by 2028, up from $1.8 trillion currently, according to private-markets data firm Preqin.

However, this influx of capital and its potential ability to skew industry fundamentals has meant that some participants and regulators have begun to voice concerns about the risks of a private-credit crisis. Some signs of stress have emerged. US BDCs made the headlines last year after a rise in the number of investors who tried to redeem their holdings. Open-ended funds that invest in illiquid assets can enter a vicious cycle when redemption requests rise: as funds sell their most liquid assets (often assets of better quality) to meet redemptions, that news creates an incentive for other investors to also redeem so as not to be the ultimate “bagholders” of the riskiest and less liquid assets. In order to avoid the proverbial rush for the exits, some BDCs were obliged to cap redemptions – which obviously does not improve investors' sentiment.

A more challenging macro-economic environment, slower growth, persistent inflation and rates that are higher for longer also raises the risk that the asset class could be entering a more difficult phase. A further concern for investors trying to understand these risks is that valuations are opaque and largely controlled by managers. However, as the asset class is becoming more institutionalised, index providers such as S&P and Bloomberg are developing private credit benchmarks. Along with BlackRock's acquisition of Preqin in 2024, this suggests private markets will become more standardised and scrutinised despite some fund managers fighting this trend.

Private debt may like high interest rates, but borrowers don't

However, the primary concern at present is that the same high interest-rate environment that makes private debt attractive to investors is also increasing pressure on borrowers. The probability of default is growing, while recovery rates in private debt have never really been measured. Defaults can be obscured: for example, the restructuring of US educational technology firm Anthology last year did not trigger a formal default, as its lenders allowed flexibility in payments. Payment-in-kind (PIK) – where interest is added to the loan principal to be paid at maturity – can similarly mask stress by deferring payments out of cash flow. The covenant-lite nature of some lending offers less protection than investors might expect, while recovery rates in restructurings may be weaker than for senior debt that requires regular repayments in cash.

Meanwhile, diversification in some private-credit vehicles looks weaker than it first appears. A significant share of portfolios are exposed to software and/or software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses, creating hidden concentration risk. These companies benefit from recurring revenues, predictable cash flows and healthy earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margins, but there are fears that artificial intelligence (AI) fundamentally threatens their business models. AI may not disrupt these companies overnight, but it could gradually erode pricing power, compress margins and weaken exit valuations, making refinancing more difficult.

The sell-off in these software stocks earlier this year, combined with the impact on private debt as investors realise how exposed some lenders are to the sector, has highlighted hidden correlation risks in supposedly diversified portfolios. All lenders now have their eyes on business-software firm Visma, which has reportedly delayed its planned initial public offering (IPO) until 2027 – a decision that perhaps suggests growing caution among investors despite strong operations and cash generation. This highlights another important feature of the market: concentration in a small number of large credits backed by private-equity sponsors. Jitters in private debt can – by definition – be less publicly visible, but the performance of HgCapital Trust, the specialist private-equity investor in software and services that has 13% of its portfolio in Visma, testifies to how sentiment has changed: it is now trading at a 25% discount to net asset value (NAV), having been on a premium in 2024.

Momentum remains in the private debt market

And yet, the market remains active. Despite slower mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in Europe during the first quarter, two large refinancings – of TK Elevator (€1.8 billion) and Global Sports Group (€2.2 billion) – drove solid deal volumes. “The prominence of these large-cap deals also suggests direct lenders have successfully taken advantage of the volatility seen in Q1 to reclaim some market share from the syndicated markets,” notes Debtwire. The amount of funds raised in 2022-2024 that are not yet invested (known as “dry powder” in the industry) will allow the market to keep momentum.

The fact that direct lending can offer 100-500 basis points of additional yield over what is available in the traditional syndicated loan market (depending on the amount of leverage used by the vehicle, or if it acquires subordinated debt and junior capital) – combined with the ability to negotiate better structural protections than broadly syndicated loans – should continue to attract strong interest.

Dry powder will help lenders to inject capital if needed and protect their initial investments, tempering the risk of a private-debt crisis. It will be used to address the “refinancing wall”: a large stock of debt raised in the low-rate era now needs to be rolled over at significantly higher cost. So far, this has been managed through extensions and amendments – euphemistically renamed as Liability Management Exercises (LMEs). Widespread defaults are rare.

We also need to keep in mind that there are important regional differences in private debt. The US market is more mature and increasingly competitive as banks re-enter leveraged finance, given an incentive by the Trump administration's new regulations. In Europe, private debt is still expanding, supported by a more fragmented banking system and structurally lower penetration. Note too that public markets are treating private credit as a homogeneous bet on leveraged buyouts. However, outcomes will depend less on the asset class itself and more on managers' capabilities: origination, underwriting discipline and balance-sheet flexibility. Scale is an advantage in stressed environments. Large managers such as Ares, Apollo and Blackstone have the ability to amend loans, provide follow-on capital and manage restructurings internally. Origination is the real moat, because it separates lenders that focus on financing commoditised leverage buyouts (LBOs), which are often syndicated loans, from those that source bilateral or semi-bilateral deals with pricing power and better protections. Collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) – securities backed by a pool of loans, often from LBOs – have held up so far and offer diversified exposure to leveraged loans. However, their lack of control over the underlying loans and consequently over the outcomes when borrowers come under pressure may become more apparent as the cycle turns.

The easy part – that “golden moment” – is over. Higher rates are a source of stress. As refinancing pressures build and dispersion rises, returns will be less a function of a rising tide lifting the whole asset class and more driven by selection, discipline, structure and scale. A broad opportunity is turning into a more challenging game.

High-performing private-debt funds generally require high minimum commitments (ie, institutional size – maybe €2 million - €5 million to a private-debt fund such as CVI with strong exposure to central Europe). Some managers are starting to target individual investors as a source of further capital, but one should always be aware that individuals are less likely to get the best opportunities. Avoid products offered by private banks where layers of fees accumulate.

More interesting are listed funds and managers exposed to the sector. Some merit caution, but fears of a crisis may create buying opportunities in the best ones. In Europe, there is Tikehau Capital (Paris: TKO), which has robust exposure to special situations, ICG (LSE: ICG) and CVC Income & Growth (LSE: CVCG). In the US, Ares Management (NYSE: ARES) and Blackstone (NYSE: BX) have developed the strongest platforms in terms of origination. Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO) has the strongest exposure to direct lending, but readers may prefer to wait for the dust to settle.

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Stock markets are still setting record highs, despite the unstable geopolitical backdrop and economic uncertainty. Market euphoria has been boosted by SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) last week, and by the potential IPOs of OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT and its rival Anthropic.

Yet market breadth is at record lows. Just a handful of AI-related names have been responsible for virtually all of the MSCI World's performance this year. What's more, in the past, bumper IPOs have sometimes been the sign of a market top.

In the current environment, some investors may want to take some profits, reduce exposure to stocks and remove the temptation to trade, while still remaining invested. Adding some bonds to your portfolio could be part of the answer.

The return of bonds with the 60/40 portfolio

The traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds) fell out of favour between 2020 and 2024 after a series of unfortunate events. Throughout the pandemic, central banks held rates at, or below, zero, and bonds reached fresh highs. Yet from 2022 to 2024, inflation – which most investors had forgotten existed – returned with a vengeance. As interest rates spiked, bonds collapsed. As a result, a 60/40 portfolio of US equities and bonds returned 17.3% in 2022, its worst performance since 1937, according to Morgan Stanley.

Yet we are in a very different environment now. Yields on high-grade corporate and government debt are sitting at some of the highest levels since 2007, so investors don't sacrifice so much return in buying them (unlike 2020 and 2021). Higher starting yields mean that there is less risk of a sudden rise in rates sparking a 2022-style collapse. So a frothier stock market may make a 60/40 or 80/20 asset allocation look sensible again. The future is impossible to predict. However, a 60/40 approach has historically tended to offer good protection against volatility. A 60/40 US portfolio achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 7.3% over 200 years to 2024, according to Morgan Stanley. Stocks and bonds experienced negative returns in the same year on only 16 occasions, illustrating just how unusual 2022 really was.

Having a mix of bonds and stocks rather than all stocks has meant lower long-term returns. A global 60/40 portfolio would have returned 4% per year between 1901 and 2022 and an 80/20 portfolio would have returned 5%, but an all-stock portfolio would have returned around 6%, according to a report for the CFA Institute. Note also that the risk-adjusted return (the return relative to the volatility) was similar for both the 60/40 and 80/20 portfolios. However, a much more conservative portfolio of 30% stocks and 70% bonds had worse risk-adjusted returns. In other words, once you get beyond a certain point, being more cautious keeps reducing returns, but yields a more marginal reduction in risk.

All this implies that long-term investors should gauge bond exposure carefully and not be too conservative. Overdoing it will probably lead to lower returns. But it can still make sense temporarily to increase exposure in volatile markets.

How to adjust your bond exposure

One easy way to adjust your bond weight is to use a fund series such as Vanguard LifeStrategy, where you can move between the 100% Equity and 60% Equity or 80% Equity funds in a simple transaction. These funds are rebalanced daily and are very cost-competitive, with ongoing charges of 0.2%. Other choices include the Fidelity Multi Asset Allocator and the HSBC Global Strategy series of funds.

Alternatively, consider using a selection of index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (LSE: SSAC) for global stocks and Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond GBP Hedged (LSE: VAGS). This lets you adjust the stock and bond weight to your own preference.

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We've all stayed in hotels with noisy neighbours. But perhaps not the kind of neighbours who have fluffy tails or fly. Still, when you stay in one of the new and rather luxurious Treehouse Suites at Fairmont Windsor Park in Surrey, you are choosing to inhabit their world, if only for a short time – the world of the scampering squirrel, the rustling deer, the flitting bat, the warbling song thrush, the rattling magpie, the hooting owl… and, of course, being so close to London, the incessant squeak of the antisocial parakeet, no matter how well dressed. One must always make allowances for the locals.

On the lake behind the copse that is your immediate neighbourhood while staying in a Treehouse Suite, you will hear the ducks quacking and the seagulls laughing, although I don't believe I heard a peep out of the swans and herons. Your fellow guests have also come from far and wide – the geese from Canada and Egypt, and the Mandarin ducks from China (at least originally). All the while, a kite hovers high in the sky, keeping a beady eye on the busy natural world unfolding below.

Treehouse Suite at Fairmont Windsor Park

Magpie is the name of the Treehouse Suite I was staying in during an unseasonably warm and sunny weekend in April. These are wooden structures (four in all), which helps them to blend in with their woodland surroundings. And before you complain about false advertising, the suites are not actually in the trees as per the arboreal clubhouse of your childhood. Think of the size of the mighty oak that would be needed to support such an edifice! Rest assured, the trees of Fairmont Windsor Park remain unburdened. Rather, the four raised Treehouse Suites have been strategically built among the beeches and silver birches, with new saplings planted that will, in time, make the Treehouse Suites feel even more secluded. That said, privacy isn't a problem even now. You can wallow all you like in your elevated, outdoor Jacuzzi, up on the deck and away from the prying eyes of people. To be sure, the squirrels will get a good look at you.

My Magpie suite, in fact, had two hot tubs on the wraparound deck. This two-bedroom suite is really two apartments, which makes it ideal for families with older children or perhaps two couples travelling together, who will inevitably come to value some time apart. The other three suites have one Jacuzzi. But dry yourself off and come inside, through the French doors and into the living room of the Magpie suite.

A cosy winter paradise

Those doors form part of a curved wall of glass that can be folded back to let the outside in during the warmer months.

For the winter, there is a log fire that transforms this space into a cosy nest. Facing the fireplace is a modern and fully equipped kitchen, with an induction hob, a fridge for food and another for wine. We arrived to a basket of goodies on the countertop – cake, biscuits, crisps; all the sinful things to nibble on while you're sipping your wine out on the deck.

The first spacious bedroom is accessed from the living room and it, too, opens onto the wraparound deck. At the far end of the room, on the other side of the bed, you will find the white and black-tile bathroom with his and hers sinks, a standalone bathtub and a separate shower.

This set-up is more or less mirrored in the other mini-apartment accessed from the area reserved for coats, brollies and muddy boots when you come in through the suite's front door – although that en-suite bedroom doesn't have direct access to the kitchen, which isn't always a bad thing. But, like the first bedroom, this also opens onto its own hot tub.

So you could, if you so wanted, nestle down with your furry and feathered friends for the duration of your stay. But that would almost be a shame, because Fairmont thoughtfully provides the denizens of its Treehouse Suites with their own golf buggy and mountain bikes. You can use these to explore the grounds of the hotel. You will certainly want to stop at the spa with its quaint courtyard heated outdoor spa pool with various massage jets. Inside, you will find a second, bigger spa pool and there is also a salt room.

A variety of dining options to choose from

And you will most definitely want to stop at restaurant Il Giardino 1215 (although, if you are anything like me with the wine list, you may want to walk, which you can do easily). The à la carte is Mediterranean – I started with a handful of sweet, nutty scallops (and a rather sensational house-take on a negroni) and progressed to the pan-fried veal chop.

As of this month, you now have another dining option in The Windsor Brasserie. It is, according to the press release, a “lively, design-led brasserie”, focused on modern European cuisine “with a sense of theatre”. It has an open kitchen with a charcoal robata grill, and some dishes, such as the tartare, are finished at the table. I might just have to come back to try it.

After the lovely meal at Il Giardino, it was time to stroll back to the Treehouse Suite, via the atmospheric Art Deco-style bar. Waking early the next morning, I peered over the deck railing to spy one of my neighbours already at the breakfast buffet – a fat, fluffy rabbit, munching on the grass at the foot of the treehouse. The neighbourhood was waking up to another fine day.

Chris was a guest of Fairmont Windsor Park. Treehouse Suites cost from £2,300 a night, visit fairmont-windsorpark.com

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What's happening at the World Cup?

It's not merely the geopolitics of this football World Cup – taking place in the US, Canada and Mexico – that are truly unprecedented. The main host nation, the US, is at war with a participant country, Iran, whose players must enter and leave US territory on the same day for their matches; one host country recently threatened to annexe another; a highly regarded referee was ejected from US territory for the crime of being Somali; and citizens of four competing nations are banned from the US. Meanwhile, the bellicose US president was recently awarded with a newly invented “peace prize” by football's governing body, FIFA.

The economics of this World Cup are the “craziest” ever, too, says Faisal Islam for the BBC. The three co-hosts are in the midst of an “epic trade war”. Between last week's kick-off at the Estadio Azteca, and the final on 19 July at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium, the three will be renegotiating their trilateral USMCA free-trade deal.

Why is this World Cup unusual?

On the footballing front, the fact that the breakout star of the tournament so far is Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper is pretty astonishing. So, too, is the fact that FIFA has allowed football's structure – this is the archetypal game of two halves – to be watered down by compulsory “hydration breaks”, regardless of the weather. Footballers can already access water as needed. But the unprecedented breaks, which allow broadcasters to sell another three minutes of advertising mid-game, have turned World Cup matches into games of four quarters, with coaches and teams now having three chances to regroup and reset. But perhaps most astonishing of all are the gob-smacking ticket prices.

How expensive is a World Cup ticket?

The official prices, not those charged by touts (or “scalpers”), are astronomical. For the final at the MetLife stadium in New Jersey on 19 July, official prices are around $2,030-$6,730, but later sales phases and “dynamic pricing” surges pushed some final tickets as high as $10,990 – with secondary markets offering tickets at multiples of that. Even quite ordinary seats have sold for between $3,000 and $7,000, and the least attractive seats for more than $2,000. For the more attractive group games (featuring the big European and South American teams, or host nations), a rough typical price is $1,000, and as high as $2,700. Even the “bargain” prices, for a non-prestige group-stage match, are typically several hundred dollars.

Why are World Cup tickets priced so high?

“The fans are being squeezed like never before because this is a very different tournament economic model to what has gone before,” says Faisal Islam. In previous World Cups, part of the economic rationale for hosting was to help catalyse spending on new infrastructure, including on transport links and stadiums. This time, most of the games are taking place in rented American football (NFL) stadiums and FIFA has essentially adopted NFL economics, meaning that “seat pricing is designed for yield management” – and “revenue maximisation is prized above the act of selling out the stadium”. Throughout the World Cup's history, organisers have tried to keep ticket prices at a level ordinary fans can afford and coped with the massive excess demand via lottery distribution. Broadcasting and sponsorship rights were a vastly more lucrative source of revenue.

Economics of the 2026 World Cup

This time, ticket sales and hospitality are projected to count for almost as much revenue. For the first time, FIFA has taken direct control of ticketing, rather than outsourcing to local organisers, and has attempted to incorporate and exploit the secondary market by – in effect – acting as its own tout. This time, ticket holders are free to sell their tickets on an officially sanctioned marketplace, but FIFA takes a 30% cut (15% each from seller and buyer; a nice model). They have also embraced so-called “dynamic pricing”, where ticket prices rise (and fall) in line with demand, and where many customers complain they don't know how much they are paying, and for precisely what, until the deal is confirmed.

Is all this legit?

Not everyone is convinced. “FIFA has turned buying a ticket to the World Cup into a gauntlet of confusion, fake scarcity and impossibly high prices – all at the expense of consumers,” says Jennifer Davenport, the attorney-general of New Jersey. Both New Jersey, where the final takes place, and neighbouring New York, have launched formal investigations into potential skulduggery. Yet the model is certainly lucrative. Richard Sheehan, economics professor and sports finance expert at the University of Notre Dame, writing in The Conversation, predicts the total ticket and hospitality revenue for this year's tournament could top $14 billion, more than double the amount from the Qatar World Cup in 2022, which hit $6.6 billion. There are more games this time (48 teams rather than 32), but Sheehan projects revenue per game will rise from $14.5 million to at least $30 million.

What are the economic benefits of the 2026 World Cup?

FIFA projects the US economy will be among the winners from the event with a $17 billion boost in US GDP and 185,000 jobs created. But most analysts reckon any macroeconomic impacts will be marginal. That $17 billion is a short-term 0.05% boost to US GDP and it's likely that the World Cup will crowd out other kinds of tourism, with ordinary visitors eager to avoid price hikes on everything from hotel rooms to transport. Even the benefits for host cities are far from clear-cut, says Marni Rose McFall in Newsweek. City authorities are on the hook for logistics, transport, sanitation, security and policing, and other costs involved in staging multiple games across several weeks – hence the giant price hikes on transport to and from stadiums. But research, including a new report from insurance company Atradius, shows that most World Cups cost host cities more than they bring in. “FIFA collects most of the revenue, host cities absorb much of the risk.” The beautiful game is more bountiful than ever.

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Historically, gold has been regarded as a safe store of value against the potential for fiat currency to depreciate in value – in other words, as a hedge against inflation.

But for much of 2026 so far, higher inflation has coincided with lower gold prices.

“Gold was still up 6% over the year to the end of May,” said Joseph Greif, investment director at wealth manager Evelyn Partners, “but its recent behaviour has been uncomfortable for investors who expected it to protect portfolios immediately.”

Inflation has run hotter since the Iran war broke out, especially in the US. The US is a critical market for gold; the metal is priced in dollars, so its usefulness as an inflation hedge is implicitly measured against US inflation.

But while the Iran conflict pushed inflation higher, the price of gold fell. Between 27 February – the day before the war broke out – and 10 June, the price of gold fell 23%. Annualised US CPI inflation rose from 2.7% in February to 4.2% in May.

Why the gold price fell during the Iran conflict

Inflation is not the only dynamic that gold prices interact with. One of the key ones is interest rates, particularly in the US.

Gold pays no interest. That matters less to investors when interest rates are low, because alternative assets like bonds aren’t offering much interest themselves.

But once interest rates increase – or when markets expect them to – then gold loses appeal relative to interest-paying investments.

This is the main reason gold prices fell, both before and during the conflict in Iran. The price of gold peaked on 29 January at $5,595, around a month before the war broke out. The catalyst for prices to start falling from then was Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Until then, markets had assumed Trump would nominate a ‘dovish’ chair for the central bank and that this would result in relatively loose US monetary policy (i.e. lower interest rates) – a positive for gold.

By the time the Iran war broke out, markets had already spent weeks pricing in higher interest rate expectations. And the inflationary shock that the Strait of Hormuz’s closure prompted only amplified those expectations.

“The prolonged conflict sparked severe inflationary risks, pushing US inflation to 4.2% in May,” Benoît Harger, portfolio manager at private bank J. Safra Sarasin, told MoneyWeek. “This data forced markets to price in potential interest rate hikes instead of cuts. It boosted the appeal of yielding assets and triggered a 30% gold correction from its January high.”

This isn’t necessarily out of character with how gold has behaved in the past.

“What lots of people don’t realise about gold is it sells off in a crisis, often because of liquidity,” Cosmo Sturge, director of market strategy at metals fund manager Baker Steel, told MoneyWeek. “You had a lot of investors who had made a lot of money in the run-up to the [Iran] war, and suddenly that change in the outlook for inflation and the knock-on effect for interest rates [prompted them to] sell gold.”

Could gold still help hedge against inflation?

Despite the selloff, most experts agree that gold still has a role to play in portfolios, particularly as a hedge against inflation.

Central bankers are currently more constrained in how high they can push interest rates than they have been in the past.

The Fed hiked interest rates to as high as 19% in the early 1980s to combat rising inflation. This coincided with a steep decline in the gold price, from around $650 in January 1980 to around $320 in June 1982. But these high interest rates damaged the global economy and would be unworkable today.

“Rates clearly can rise, but could they rise to those levels again? Could the Fed really have the firepower to be able to fight true inflationary crises through monetary policy?” asks Sturge. “I'm not sure. Debt to GDP is four times higher than in 1980. You've had a huge increase in the money supply in the US, which has obviously been fueling inflation.”

If it reached a point where the Fed couldn’t control inflation through monetary policy, then financial repression – government policies that keep rates artificially low, at the expense of savers and private businesses – would result.

“That is a very positive environment for gold,” says Sturge.

Similarly, Harger believes that gold remains an effective inflation hedge because it protects against long-term structural fragility. He argues that interest rates will eventually have to fall: “The global economy cannot sustain permanently high financing costs without triggering a recession. Furthermore, under-pressure growth and massive public deficits… limit long-term rate hikes.”

Gold, he says, will likely be a beneficiary of this eventual reduction in interest rates. “A strategic allocation may provide protection against sovereign risk and currency devaluation as rising debts force loose monetary policies.”

“Over the long term, gold being an inflation protection, I think, has held very well, but it tends to be more in terms of protecting your purchasing power rather than necessarily shooting sky high every time there's inflationary scare,” said Sturge. “It's driven by persistent debt growth: the fiscal deficits of the world, long-term currency debasement – these are the reasons why people hold gold.”

There is no shortage of popular places to visit in the UK — whether you’re after a coastal holiday or an idyllic countryside retreat.

And thanks to warmer temperatures, the case for a staycation is stronger than ever.

According to Expedia, interest in holidays within the UK has risen by 77% year-on-year globally, while more than half of Britons are now more interested in taking a UK break than they were last summer.

We round up the best UK hotspots to visit this summer, whether you’re travelling solo, planning a family getaway or organising a trip with friends.

Planning a trip further afield? We look at where to travel around the world and when to visit them in a separate guide.

10 most popular places to visit in the UK

Britain is home to many memorable destinations with many of the most popular places outside of the bigger cities.

Quaint villages in England and islands in Wales are gaining popularity among those seeking a staycation, data from Sykes Holiday Cottages shows.

The data is taken from internal booking insights over the last three years, and the top destinations are selected from towns with the most bookings.

Source: Sykes Holiday Cottages

1. Anglesey

Anglesey in North Wales is the most popular region to visit in the UK, thanks to sweeping coastal views, ancient historic sites and impressive beaches. You can walk around the 140 miles of the Anglesey Coastal Path, visit Llanddwyn Island, home to rare red squirrels and associated with the Welsh patron saint of lovers, visit the Beaumaris Castle or have a fun-filled family day out at the Anglesey Sea Zoo or Pili Palas Nature World.

2. Weymouth

Weymouth is a classic English seaside town ideal for a relaxing retreat. Head to Weymouth Beach, take a stroll along Weymouth Stone Pier or opt for a laid-back picnic at Nothe Gardens. There’s plenty to do for history buffs, whether you visit the ruins of Sandsfoot Castle, explore the underground tunnels at Nothe Fort or walk around the town to see historic objects and the town’s role in the D-Day landings.

3. Bowness-on-Windermere

The Lake District is a haven for literature lovers — both Beatrix Potter and William Wordsworth drew inspiration from this rugged, charming landscape. Get out on the water at Bowness Bay in Bowness-on-Windermere, where you can drive a motorboat or hop on a lake cruise, or visit The World of Beatrix Potter attraction to see different literary characters come to life. You can also go for hikes, visit historic museums or try your hand at archery at Brockhole-on-Windermere.

4. Beadnell

Beadnell is the perfect spot for a quiet beach retreat for those who want to simply relax on the golden sand while enjoying spectacular views. At the same time, it’s a watersports paradise. Take advantage of the Beadnell Bay, where you can try kitesurfing or wakeboarding — you can even give dune sledging a go if you’re feeling adventurous. Other than that, you can take a boat trip to the Farne Islands to spot puffins, visit the Longstone Lighthouse or see the iconic Bamburgh Castle, which was originally the location of a Celtic Brittonic fort dating back thousands of years.

5. Tenby

The most popular place to see puffins is Skomer Island, which you can visit by taking a boat trip from Tenby. Steeped in history, the Welsh harbour town is known for its 13th-century medieval town walls, the Five Arches barbican gatehouse and a 15th-century church. You can even take boat trips to Caldey Island, which is one of Britain’s holy islands, and St Catherine’s Island, which you can access during a low tide.

6. Buxton

This historic spa town in Derbyshire sits on the fringe of the Peak District and is famous for its ‘healing’ thermal waters and 18th-century Georgian and Victorian architecture. Some top places to visit are the Devonshire Dome, the Buxton Opera House and the two-million-year-old natural limestone cave, Poole’s Cavern, which has been designated a Site of Special Scientific Interest.

7. Skipton

Skipton is a charming market town in North Yorkshire packed with history, scenic walks and family-friendly attractions. At the heart of the town is Skipton Castle, a Grade I-listed medieval castle built in 1090, which withstood a three-year siege during the English Civil War. You can also take canal boat trips, and use Skipton as a base for exploring the Yorkshire Dales National Park.

8. Bourton-on-the-Water

Bourton-on-the-Water is a popular village in the heart of the Cotswolds, straddling the River Windrush. You can wander through quaint streets lined with honey-stone cottages and charming low bridges, enjoy browsing independent shops and try a traditional cream tea. Some iconic landmarks include the Model Village, which is a one-ninth scale replica of the Cotswold village, or visit Britain’s only breeding colony of King Penguins in the nine acres of Birdland Park and Gardens.

9. Burnham-on-Sea

Situated on the Somerset coast, Burnham-on-Sea is a traditional seaside town known for its sandy beaches and relaxed atmosphere. It used to be a tiny fishing village until the late 18th century, and is home to the famous Low Lighthouse. An ideal location for seaside activities, you can enjoy amusement park rides and fish and chips by the sea, or choose to explore the Apex Leisure and Wildlife Park, where you can spot a wide range of plants and birds.

10. Inverness

The only Scottish city on the list will certainly not disappoint. The de facto capital of the Scottish Highlands sits on the banks of the River Ness, where you can enjoy lochside views and the nearby Inverness Castle. It’s famous for its rich history combined with spectacular natural scenery — you can visit the prehistoric Clava Cairns or Culloden Battlefield, the historic site of the final Jacobite Rising. The surrounding Highlands are ideal for hikes, wildlife spotting and scenic road trips, and you can even go island hopping without leaving the city.

There’s an age-old investment adage that promotes the value of spending time in the market as opposed to trying to time the market.

Unless you’ve got a crystal ball that tells you exactly when certain markets or asset classes are going to rise or fall, you’re probably better off investing smaller amounts on a regular basis, referred to as pound cost averaging. This smooths out any highs and lows, allows you to pay less for your investments on average and can make the journey less volatile, if indeed that’s your desired experience – some investors may enjoy the thrill of trying to time market highs and lows with a lump sum.

Behavioural finance experts often suggest that as humans, we’re predisposed to certain biases, including selling our investments when performance starts to drop off, despite all the expert evidence telling us not to do that; it just crystallises any losses instead of giving your investments a chance to recover.

That said, investor confidence is at its highest in seven years despite a year defined by geopolitical instability, global trade tensions and market uncertainty.

An annual study of investor behaviour and sentiment from research and communications businesses AML Group and The Nursery Research & Planning, The Investor Index 2026, showed investor confidence reaching a new high.

The index – a composite measure of investors’ confidence, sense of control and how informed they feel about their financial decisions – is back well above pre-pandemic levels, surpassing the previous high of the AI boom in 2024.

“What’s particularly interesting is how normalised uncertainty appears to have become for investors,” said Nicola Wright, insights director at The Nursery Research & Planning.

“Confidence is no longer closely tied to calm market conditions. Investors seem increasingly comfortable making decisions in a world where disruption and volatility are seen as part of the backdrop rather than temporary events.”

Several reasons are likely feeding that confidence, according to Jason Hollands, managing director at investment platform Bestinvest.

These include overplayed concerns that the US was facing a recession (which has not materialised) and markets (being forward-looking) appearing to discount the risk of the Middle East conflict as temporary, despite it lasting longer than many had first expected. He believes the over-riding reason behind many investors’ optimism is around AI and the exceptional levels of capital expenditure being ploughed into the sector.

Investing during uncertain times

Confidence is informed by several factors, including attitude to risk, life stage and level of experience and the amount of money you have.

The survey found 84% of investors (defined as having £10,000 or more invested) near or in retirement feel confident their savings and investments will be sufficient. Confidence is also higher among those already retired, as opposed to those in planning stages, and among those with more than £250,000 invested.

While the index showed UK investors were putting their money where their mouths were – 50% increased their investment amounts compared with last year while 40% maintained the same levels despite an uncertain backdrop.

That faith in the market is supported by a willingness to pay a premium for more likelihood of returns, a priority alongside decent track records and user-friendly products.

The choices UK investors are making also indicate optimism, favouring equity funds on the whole, with a rising demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In keeping with regular savings strategies, considering a diversified, long-term approach – such as looking at reliable large caps, high-quality fixed income and some uncorrelated real asset exposure – should help many investors, whatever their time horizon, weather any storms.

Hollands said the danger of buoyant markets is the risk of overconfidence or being swayed by casual conversations with people ‘down the pub’.

“A lot of DIY investors start off enthusiastically but over time their interest wanes and they tend to forget about their portfolio,” he said.

Asset allocation – checking if any position sizes need rebalancing to bring the overall investments in line with your intended risk profile and preferences – is something many self-directed investors tend to overlook. Many get excited about fund or stock ideas rather than looking at the bigger picture, he added.

“Try not to over-react to the last thing someone told you but also make sure you’re reviewing your portfolio at least a couple of times a year, at the same cadence. Having a well thought-through asset allocation is really important, which can then anchor you to making better decisions.”

Are you thinking about investing but not convinced yet?

Intenders, perhaps unsurprisingly, are more cautious. The Nursery and AML define this cohort as those with over £10,000 in savings or over £2,000 in savings and an income over £40,000 but also likely to invest in the next two years. These people are keen to invest but still waiting for a ‘trigger’ event.

Tending to listen to banks, family and friends rather than professional advisers, they are more anxious across the board compared to investors. They see property and savings as safer bets than stocks and shares, with fear of loss and risk aversion their main barriers to getting started.

Of this group, 41% worry they will lose money and 37% say it feels too risky. Yet 44% say low-risk options or better knowledge would get them over the line.

“One of the main reasons that a lot of people who’d like to invest don’t do it is they’re nervous about putting their money in at the wrong time, and then suddenly seeing a significant drawdown in the value of their investment. That can stop them investing full stop,” explained Hollands.

He said the way to overcome that was to take the pound cost averaging approach.

“By just investing a little often regularly, it takes the emotion out of it and also means that across a year, you can expect to smooth out some of the ups and downs that you see in the short term.”

He also urges even experienced investors to consider the benefits of this approach – it’s not just for beginners.

How to start investing during uncertain times

Bestinvest is seeing novice investors increasingly choose readymade portfolios rather than trying to build their own from scratch, selecting funds themselves.

Readymade portfolios are essentially multi-asset funds designed to cater to a range of risk profiles, which have become common across most DIY investment platforms, which have evolved their offerings to serve customers of all levels of experience.

“Readymade portfolios provide inexperienced investors with effectively a ‘one-stop shop’ managed investment solution, through a diversified selection of underlying funds selected by a portfolio manager and an asset allocation approach that is periodically rebalanced to stay in line with the risk profile,” said Hollands.

He also said that passive funds had become more popular, with novice investors increasingly putting relatively small amounts via regular savings into global tracker funds.

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• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates at 3.75% today.
• The decision was in line with expectations from most experts.
• The MPC seems to be adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to setting rates, holding off on a hike or cut until we see concrete evidence of how the war is affecting the UK.
• The Bank estimates that inflation will be lower than their previous expectations in 2026.
• The latest inflation data showed prices rose by 2.8% in the year to May 2026, unchanged from April.
• Unemployment fell slightly to 4.9% in the three months to April.

When will interest rates fall further? | Is the UK heading for stagflation? | MPC meeting dates | UK inflation forecast |

Good afternoon and welcome to MoneyWeek’s live coverage of tomorrow’s (18 June) interest rates decision.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet today to decide where to take interest rates, and the decision will be announced on Thursday.

Follow along for the latest commentary and analysis on the upcoming decision and the breaking news tomorrow afternoon.

What is the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)?

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is a group of nine experts who are responsible for setting interest rates.

The group is made up of five senior members of staff at the Bank of England, and four external experts who are there to make sure the MPC benefits from expertise outside the BoE. The committee is chaired by Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank.

They meet every six weeks and vote on whether to cut, hold, or raise interest rates. If there is a tie, then the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey holds the deciding vote.

Interest rate decisions are usually announced on a Thursday, though the meeting itself typically takes place on the day before the announcement.

At their last meeting, the MPC voted to hold rates at 3.75%, with the motion passing by eight votes to one.

ONS: Inflation held steady at 2.8% in May

Inflation held at 2.8% in the 12 months to May, as the lowest food inflation in 17 months helped offset high transport prices, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

The figure undershot expectations from many economists who expected inflation to rise.

Although inflation is lower than many had forecasted, it is still significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target and many economists expect it to rise this year thanks to the economic disruption from the Iran war.

The largest upwards contributor to inflation in May was the transport sector, where inflation was 6.8% in the year to May. Price growth for airfares, vehicle taxes, and motor fuel costs pushed May’s overall inflation up by 0.29 percentage points.

Much of this was offset by surprisingly low food inflation, which was the lowest in May since December 2024. Food prices rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to May, pulling overall inflation down by 0.07 percentage points.

Other notable downwards contributions to the inflation rate came from the housing and household services, furniture, clothing, restaurant, and recreation sectors.

For more detail and analysis on today’s inflation figures, you can read our inflation live report from earlier today.

What’s the link between interest rates and inflation?

Inflation is one of the most important, though not the only, economic indicators used by the MPC to help them set interest rates.

This is because the Bank of England has a mandate to keep inflation at 2%, a level of price growth that economic consensus deems healthy for an economy.

Most Western central banks, like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US’s Federal Reserve (Fed), have an inflation target of 2%.

The Bank of England can use monetary policy to help keep inflation at the target level. The most important of these levers is the moving of interest rates.

Broadly speaking, when inflation is too high, the MPC will raise interest rates, and when it is too low, it will lower them.

These are not the only two reasons why interest rates are moved. For example, rates might be lowered if economic growth is too slow in a bid to speed up the economy.

Where have interest rates gone in the last decade?

Interest rates are currently at 3.75%, the lowest they have been since February 2023.

Before 2022, rates had languished under 1% for the most part as low interest rates were used as a tool to help stimulate the economy following the 2008 financial crisis and during the covid-19 pandemic.

But high rates have been the norm since 2022, when energy prices exploded in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This led to high inflation and the start of the cost of living crisis, which we are still feeling the effects of today.

In order to tame inflation, the Bank of England quickly and aggressively hiked rates, going from 0.5% in February 2022 to 5.25% in August 2023.

Rates have since been gradually lowered, with the bank rate going from 5.25% in July 2024 to 3.75% in December 2025, where they have stayed.

Before the Iran war, most economists expected the Bank to cut rates at least twice in 2026, but few now expect this to happen.

They now either expect rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year, or potentially rise depending on how deep the inflationary shock from the war will be.

What should we expect from tomorrow’s interest rates announcement?

Most economists agree that an interest rate cut is incredibly unlikely tomorrow as global economic conditions make this a risky move. If rates are cut at a time when many expect inflation to rise, it could exacerbate the issue.

Instead, many experts are forecasting that the MPC will choose to hold interest rates at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Today’s inflation data bolsters the case for a hold, as it undershot the Bank’s projection by 0.4 percentage points, helping paint a rosier picture of price growth.

With inflation holding steady compared to the April 2026 figure, the possibility of a rate hike in tomorrow’s announcement also becomes more unlikely, though future hikes are not off the table yet.

Experts at Oxford Economics forecast a hold at tomorrow’s meeting, expecting the MPC to vote 7-2 in favour of a hold.

Edward Allenby, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said: “Although energy prices remain elevated, most MPC members don’t appear close to voting for tighter policy.

“Early warning signs of indirect and second-round effects remain benign, and most members have argued that the weakness in the economy means the risks around the medium-term inflation outlook are two-sided. But these members are still likely to signal that they remain open to rate rises if necessary.”

The economic backdrop to tomorrow's announcement

The economic backdrop to tomorrow’s MPC meeting is a mixed picture. While May’s inflation figures were much lower than most economists expected, the rest of the economic news is not quite so rosy.

The UK economy shrunk in April as the country started to feel the economic disruption from the Iran war, figures from the ONS showed last week.

The economy contracted by 0.1% in the month to April, the first time negative growth figures were seen since August 2025.

The contraction is a far cry from the more positive growth figures in the first quarter of 2026, which showed the economy grew by 0.6%, indicating that the Iran war disrupted the start of an economic recovery for the UK.

Negative growth is a big worry for policymakers as it means the country is getting poorer as a whole.

When periods of economic contraction are prolonged, the effect is worse as firms see revenues dwindle and start to lay off staff – if the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters, it officially enters a recession.

We are not quite at that point yet, but depending on how the economy responds to the economic shocks coming, we could get closer.

The Bank of England also closely monitors the labour market to help inform their interest rates decision.

The latest figures show unemployment climbed to 5% in the three months to March, bringing joblessness to its highest level in almost six years.

Meanwhile, wage growth is slowing. In the three months to March, wages grew by just 3.4%, also the slowest rate in six years.

Although high unemployment and slow wage growth are bad for individuals, according to the orthodox view of economics, a soft labour market does act as a disinflationary pressure in the economy – if you are laid off, your income falls and so does your spending.

That means that a poor jobs market can help lower inflation, which can in turn help persuade the MPC to cut rates.

Why does conflict in the Middle East mean inflation in the UK?

The war in Iran has caused a significant global economic shock with trade being disrupted since 28 February as hostilities have made transporting goods through the region very risky.

The disruption has been particularly acute because the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which around 20% of the world’s oil and gas is transported, has remained shut.

With such a large proportion of the world’s oil supply effectively stuck in the strait, oil prices have soared.

The average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was around $70 before the start of the war, but once hostilities began prices became high and volatile. They peaked at around $114 a barrel in May, but hovered between $90 and $100 for the most part since February.

Following news that a peace deal had been reached between the US and Iran, prices plummeted as traders expect the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and allow the ships stuck there to continue on to their original destination.

But even if this peace deal is signed and comes into full effect, the economic consequences of the war will be felt for some time.

Though the oil supply is set to return to normal, the damage has already been done.

The price of oil impacts how much many everyday items cost. This includes more obvious things like petrol and diesel, but also goods you may not expect like crayons, plastic bags, and iPhones.

With prices being so high for four months, we can expect the hangover effects to last for the rest of the year and potentially spill into 2027. The hard work of restarting the whole process of oil production and distribution takes time.

An additional pain point for the UK from the war is energy prices. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz sent wholesale energy prices flying, and this will be reflected when the next price cap comes in on 1 July.

Millions of households in the UK will be shelling out around 13% more for their energy this summer, and prices are expected to remain broadly at this elevated level until at least 2027, according to most forecasts.

When will the interest rate decision be announced?

The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) interest rates decision will be announced tomorrow (17 June) at 12pm.

Alongside the decision, the Bank will publish the minutes from the MPC meeting, where the committee’s thinking can be seen.

This document also has statements from each MPC member on why they voted the way they did.

Every other meeting, the Bank of England also publishes a Monetary Policy Report that sets out the economic analysis and inflation projections used by the MPC.

There will be no report published alongside the June meeting as one was published in April.

Thank you for following our live coverage of interest rates this afternoon. We will pause the blog for now, but will be back in the morning.

Make sure to come back to this page tomorrow to get the latest breaking news, analysis, and commentary on interest rates when the MPC announces their decision.

Good morning. Welcome back to our live coverage of today’s interest rates decision.

The Bank of England will announce whether rates are falling, rising, or staying where they are at 12pm.

While most economists think the bank rate will remain at 3.75%, there is still a small chance that rates will rise today.

Follow this page to get the news as soon as it's announced, as well as analysis and commentary.

ONS: Unemployment fell slightly to 4.9% in three months to April

Unemployment fell to 4.9% in the three months to April, down from a reading of 5% in the previous month, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Meanwhile, payrolls rose to 30.3 million in May, up slightly by around 2,000 compared to April.

The figures slightly undershot most expectations from economists, who largely anticipated joblessness to remain at 5%.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “The labour market remained broadly stable in the latest quarter, with further softening evident in some numbers.”

The data indicates the jobs market may be strengthening. If this is the case, it would be good news for workers, but potentially mean the Bank of England will be more inclined to keep interest rates high to avoid the inflationary pressures that arise when the jobs market is strong.

The ONS also published provisional data for May, showing the number of vacancies in the UK was down by around 2.6% (19,000 jobs) in the period between March and May, the lowest level since April 2021.

McKeown said the fall in vacancies suggests “firms are becoming more cautious about taking on new staff”.

The provisional figures also showed payrolls rose to 30.3 million in May, up slightly by around 2,000 compared to April.

ONS: Wage growth remains at a near six year low

Public sector wages are growing far faster than those in the private sector, new data from the ONS shows, as overall earnings growth remains at its slowest level in almost six years.

Wages for the average worker in the UK grew by 3.4% in the year to April when excluding bonuses, remaining at the same level as the previous month. When including bonuses, this figure grows to 4.4%.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Regular wage growth in the private sector slowed to its lowest rate in five and a half years, though total earnings are growing faster because bonus payments in March and April are higher than a year ago, particularly in the financial sector.

“Public sector pay growth increased but is once again affected by the timing of pay awards varying this year.”

Public sector workers received the biggest pay bump in the period, with their average wages growing by a rapid 5.1%.

Private sector wages lagged far behind this figure, growing by just 2.9% overall in the same period. When excluding bonuses, earnings grew at their slowest rate since October 2020, during the height of the covid-19 pandemic.

Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said the latest labour market figures “point to a jobs market struggling under the strain of soaring energy bills and employment costs, with more firms limiting hiring and holding down pay, especially for younger workers”.

He said: “Weak wage growth offers a silver lining for rate-setters by raising hopes that any inflationary spillover from the Iran war will be limited, especially as rising unemployment will help keep pay settlements heading downwards.”

He added that the figures “seal the deal” on an interest rate hold today as rate-setters will be reassured that a soft labour market can help mitigate the inflationary shock from the Iran war.

Recap: What you should expect at 12pm

The MPC’s interest rates decision will be announced at 12pm today. We will be covering the result of the decision in this live report.

Most economists think the MPC will keep rates where they are at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

They are likely to do this because of the economic shock that is coming from the Iran war. Analysts expect the war to push up inflation in the UK this year, although we are yet to see data that shows how deep the shock is.

While fuel prices are already high because of the war, and energy prices are set to rise from July onwards, overall inflation has been lower than expected in March and April, holding steady at 2.8%.

However, when the new energy price cap comes in in July, we can expect inflation to rise more significantly.

As the Bank of England has a mandate to keep inflation at 2%, they are highly unlikely to cut interest rates at a time like this, as doing so might exacerbate the problem.

While a hold is the most likely result, the MPC may decide to raise interest rates to help stave off inflation. However, a rate hike is not expected today as the MPC will likely wait and see before taking more drastic action.

Before the war, most experts thought the MPC would cut interest rates twice more in 2026, but most now think they will remain where they are for at least the rest of this year.

BREAKING: Interest rates held at 3.75%

Interest rates are unchanged at 3.75%, the Bank of England has announced.

The hold was widely anticipated by economists, as the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wait to see how the shock from the Iran war will be reflected in economic data.

Interest rate hold passed by 7 votes to 2

The Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold rates at 3.75%, with seven members supporting the motion, and two members opposing it.

The two members who opposed the hold instead wanted rates to rise by 0.25 percentage points to 4%.

The members voting to raise interest rates were Huw Pill and Megan Greene.

Energy prices were a major concern for the MPC

The minutes of the MPC’s meeting show that the elevated level of global energy prices were a key concern for the committee when deciding where to take interest rates.

They acknowledged that wholesale energy prices have fallen since their previous meeting in April but noted that they still remain higher and more volatile than they were before the Iran war.

They added that the impact of the energy shock on the economy is still uncertain, with concrete data only set to become available in the coming months.

The minutes said: “Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

Future interest rate decisions set to depend on scale of Iran shock

Where interest rates go next is uncertain and highly dependent on how the economy reacts to the shock from the Iran war, the minutes to the MPC’s meeting showed.

The Bank’s mandate to keep inflation at 2% will require different amounts of intervention from the MPC depending on the rate of inflation later this year.

The minutes show that a potential future rate hike is still on the cards despite more positive developments in the Middle East as the inflationary impact of the war is still set to get worse.

They said: “The policy stance required to achieve this [the 2% target] will depend on the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy.”

Economists at the Bank still expect inflation to accelerate later this year when the effects of higher energy prices pass through to consumers in July through the increased price cap. They are also closely monitoring second-round inflationary effects, which are typically worse the longer higher energy prices persist.

One economic indicator that helps the Bank justify avoiding a rate hike is the softening labour market, which could help “contain inflationary pressures.”

The minutes read: “The Committee will continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and how its impact propagates through the economy. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.”

Bank of England lowers its inflation expectations for 2026

Inflation is expected to remain just below 3% for most of the year, but briefly rise to “a little over” 3.25% in the fourth quarter of 2026, new estimates from the Bank show.

The new estimates are well below the Bank’s April forecasts which expected inflation to peak at 3.6% in their best-case scenario and over 4% in their worst-case scenario.

The downgrade in the Bank’s inflation expectations came after energy prices have fallen since the previous estimates were made, with significant drops coming after it looked like the Iran war was coming to a close.

Lower non-energy prices also helped the Bank revise their inflation forecast down.

BoE: Strong economic growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in 2026

The UK’s strong economic performance in the first quarter of 2026 is unlikely to continue in the rest of the year, the Bank of England has said.

The minutes of the MPC’s meeting showed that this figure overstated overlying economic momentum, which has remained subdued, according to business surveys analysed by the Bank.

April’s GDP figures, which showed the economy shrank by 0.1%, are consistent with this.

Bank staff estimate that underlying GDP growth in Q1 was around 0.2%, and that the economy would continue growing at this rate in Q2.

Base rate held for four consecutive meetings

Today’s announcement that interest rates would stay at 3.75% is the fourth consecutive time the MPC has voted to keep rates where they are.

Compared to interest rates in the last 20 years, 3.75% is relatively high, especially considering rates had been near 0% for years following the 2008 financial crisis.

However, as inflation has remained persistently high since the 2022 energy crisis and the accompanying cost of living crisis, the bank rate has been high for some time. That means that 3.75% is actually the lowest since February 2022.

Bailey: We must tolerate above-target inflation to get back to target

In the minutes of the MPC’s meeting, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, justified his vote to hold interest rates.

He argued that the marked fall in energy prices in recent days was a positive sign, especially considering the progress on US-Iran peace talks, but warned “the situation remains unpredictable, and there is clearly a risk that energy prices remain elevated for an extended duration”.

Bailey noted the labour market is showing signs of further softening and said there are further signs of demand weakness in the economy.

He added: “Our remit recognises that attempting to bring inflation back to the target too quickly may cause undesirable volatility in output.

“Given the context at present of softness in the real economy and uncertainty around the scale and duration of the shock to energy prices, tolerating temporarily above-target inflation as part of a return to target is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off, providing inflation expectations remain contained.”

He said that inflation and interest rates risks are on the upside, meaning it is more likely for the bank rate to rise than fall in the foreseeable future.

“I would respond promptly to any signals that an extended period of elevated energy prices could be leading to stronger possible second-round effects,” he added.

Why two MPC members voted to raise interest rates to 4%

While the majority of MPC members voted to keep interest rates held at 3.75%, there were two dissenting voices that wanted to hike rates.

These were Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, and Megan Greene, an academic economist and external member of the MPC.

Greene voted to hike rates as she saw the risk of second-round inflationary effects as higher and more uncertain than other members of the committee. To deal with this, she called for the MPC to “pursue a risk management strategy!.

She said the risk of holding rates where they are and second-round effects being more extreme than expected is worse than hiking rates and these effects being as forecast.

She said: “These risks are asymmetric, so we should insure against the possibility of larger second-round effects until we have evidence to determine they are not materialising. A proactive hike now in bank rate should help anchor inflation expectations.”

Pill’s justification was similar, arguing that, with the inflationary outlook so uncertain, raising interest rates to 4% “continues to be the most robust monetary policy response to the intensification of these risks”.

“Global energy prices remain volatile, and elevated compared with their pre-hostilities level, despite the announcement of a new ceasefire. Even with a looser labour market, the risk that second-round effects will create greater intrinsic persistence in UK inflation remains.”

He added that moving the bank rate to 4% now would put monetary policy in a good position to address the uncertainties in the economy.

Deutsche Bank: Interest rates expected to be on “long hold”

Deutsche Bank has said that interest rates are set to stay at 3.75% for a long time, with a lower chance of a rate hike as the economic and geopolitical backdrop has become more favourable and given rise to a wider consensus within the MPC.

Sanjay Raja, the bank’s chief UK economist, said: “For the MPC, recent data outturns combined with an Iran/US deal has meant that the risks around second-round effects have receded. Indeed, while the MPC still sees upside risks to inflation, lower wage and price inflation has given the MPC more confidence that price pressures remain more contained for now.

“Put simply, despite an inevitable inflation wave, the MPC may be willing to tolerate and look through a temporary bump in price momentum.”

Raja added that today’s decision has also helped the MPC keep their options open in the summer, when we will start to see more concrete data about how the Iran war has affected the UK.

“Despite better data and a dramatic fall in energy prices, the MPC avoided sounding too dovish. Instead, it maintained its hawkish bias – keeping flexibility should there be any meaningful signs of indirect and/or second-round effects.

“While financial conditions have tightened since the war began, the MPC's decision today reflects the importance of maintaining some policy restriction in market pricing – allowing it to stick to its 'active hold' strategy.”

As for where interest rates will go next, Raja says the need to act swiftly has reduced as more favourable economic data than expected bought the MPC some extra time to assess the situation.

With that extra breathing space, Raja expects interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of 2026 and adds that Deutsche Bank’s models still see the case for rate cuts in spring 2027.

What does today’s interest rates decision mean for your finances?

Decisions made at the Bank of England to cut, hike, or hold interest rates will affect your personal finances.

This is because the bank rate is the core interest rate in the UK, and is the rate of interest the BoE pays to commercial banks, building societies, and financial institutions that hold money with the central bank.

The bank rate is also the interest rate that the BoE charges on loans made to other financial institutions.

That means that when interest rates change at the BoE, the lending and savings rates offered by retail banks also tend to change.

This is why you may find that your mortgage rate is higher after the bank rate rises, or why you may find your savings are generating less interest when the bank rate falls.

According to data from Moneyfacts, its Average Savings Rate has risen to 3.57%, the highest point since May 2025. “Much of this change to fixed rates is down to speculation that interest rates will remain higher for longer,” said Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.

For more on how interest rates affect your finances, read our article.

MPC remains in ‘wait and see’ mode

Today’s decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% indicates that the MPC is continuing the ‘wait and see’ approach that they have used since the beginning of the Iran war, according to analysis from advisory firm Oxford Economics.

Multiple economic indicators have turned less inflationary in the last few days.

Oil and energy prices in particular are in a better place than any of the BoE’s potential scenarios outlined in their April Monetary Policy Report, with oil and gas futures trending down as the Iran war winds down.

Meanwhile, the labour market has continued to soften, which acts as a further disinflationary force in the economy.

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said that the majority of the MPC who voted to hold rates “appear to take the view that the most likely scenario is that a weak labour market and fragile demand will keep a lid on second-round effects via pay growth and margins. And leading indicators on the strength of those second-round effects will remain key to the MPC’s decision making”.

Like Deutsche Bank, Oxford Economics agree that we are probably going to see interest rates settle at 3.75% until at least next year before a potential cut in late 2027.

Goodwin said: “On balance, we can’t see any reason to change our call that Bank Rate will remain at 3.75% for the rest of this year. The majority of the committee appear content to sit back and see how events play out, and we don’t expect to see leading indicators showing evidence of growing second-round effects that might trigger a change of heart.”

Thank you for following our live coverage of today’s interest rates decision.

We will close our live report now, but make sure to subscribe to MoneyWeek’s newsletters to get a wealth of news, features, and analysis straight to your inbox.

Around £221.5 million was stolen in investment fraud during 2025, as scammers target those trying to get investing.

Across all types of scams, Brits unknowingly handed over a whopping £1.3 billion to fraudsters in 2025, up 4% from 2024, trade body UK Finance found.

Investment fraud was the leading type of authorised push payment (APP) fraud, where criminals exploit online platforms to manipulate victims into authorising payments themselves, making up just under half of all losses of this type.

The vast majority (66%) of all APP fraud, including investment fraud, begins online as scammers are more easily able to cast a wide net to attract victims with get rich quick schemes, UK Finance found.

Other types of APP fraud on the rise include purchase scams, where a victim pays in advance for goods that are never received, which accounted for 71% of all APP fraud. Losses in this category were up 20% to £118.1 million in 2025.

The amount stolen through romance fraud, where victims are persuaded to make a payment to a person they have never met but believe they are in a relationship with, was up 22% in 2025, totalling £39.2 million.

Ruth Ray, managing director of economic crime at UK Finance, said: “Fraud operates on an industrial scale, harming people, businesses and the UK economy, typically funding serious and organised crime in the UK and globally.

“The financial sector invests huge amounts in protecting customers, but we cannot be the only line of defence. Almost £1.3 billion was stolen again last year and it is clear we are not tackling the underlying problem effectively enough.

Ray called for online tech platforms to have “stronger, enforceable responsibilities” to urgently stop criminals profiting from fraud.

AI is making investment scams easier than ever

The rise of AI-generated images and videos has made fraud easier than ever for scammers, as many imitate famous figures in finance to feign credibility. Last year, MoneyWeek found fraudsters using the likeness of investor Steven Bartlett to lure unsuspecting victims.

Since then, similar scams that use the likeness of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, and Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, and others have been found.

A survey of fraud-management and financial crime prevention experts showed that AI is making fraud more difficult to deal with.

Around 84% of respondents to the survey by BioCatch, said AI has increased the sophistication of fraud and scam schemes as deepfakes are becoming increasingly difficult to spot.

Jonathan Frost, director of global advisory for EMEA at BioCatch said: “Agentic AI is making fraud faster, more scalable, and harder to detect. Criminals will inevitably use AI, potentially leading to exponential growth in fraud.”

How to protect yourself from fraud

With fraud on the rise, there are steps you can take to protect yourself. These include:

• Never give out your personal information to any organisation before you check they are legitimate. This includes your name, address, bank details, email, or phone number.
• Make sure your personal devices have up-to-date antivirus software so that any malware targeting you can be stopped before it does significant damage.
• Be conscious of phishing attempts where scammers send emails, texts, or phone calls pretending to be an organisation or individual that they are not. They often try to get you to give out your personal details or passwords. Common signs of a phishing message include grammatical errors, urgent language and suspicious-sounding email addresses or numbers.

If you think you have been a victim of fraud, contact your bank as soon as possible. You should also report the crime to Action Fraud.

To prevent yourself from becoming a victim, you should also remember the number 159 – a number you can dial if you get a suspecting call. It will direct you to your bank who can confirm if the caller is legitimate.

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released UK inflation data for May 2026.
• Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation stayed at 2.8% in the 12 months to May, the same as in the previous month’s release.
• Economists had previously predicted a rise in inflation compared to the month prior.
• Lower food prices were one of the main counters to higher transport costs in May.
• The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this week to decide on UK interest rates and will watch today’s inflation data closely when making its decision.

| UK inflation forecast | What is inflation? | When will interest rates fall further? | CPI release dates | MPC meeting dates |

Good afternoon and welcome to live coverage of the upcoming UK inflation data release.

Tomorrow, we’ll find out how prices changed in the UK during May. Last month’s release showed a slowing of UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation in the 12 months to April, despite higher oil prices resulting from the conflict in Iran.

While oil prices have fallen this week following the announcement of a peace deal between Iran and the US, the expectation is still that the impact of the conflict will have pushed CPI inflation higher in the period the data covers. How great will the impact be – and what could it mean for your money?

When is UK inflation data released?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release May’s UK inflation data at 7am tomorrow (17 June).

We’ll bring you live reporting and reaction following the release, as well as rolling coverage and expert views on what changes in inflation might mean for you.

What do experts predict for May’s UK CPI?

The headline CPI figure took a surprise dip in April, but few experts anticipate a repeat in the May UK inflation data.

Economists at advisory firm Pantheon Macroeconomics expect CPI inflation to have risen to 3.0% in May, due to the impact of recovering air fares and vehicle duty base effects.

“Most of the action comes in services,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief UK economist Robert Wood and senior UK economist Elliott Jordan-Doak in a report seen by MoneyWeek. “Non-core components should add 1 basis point to inflation in May compared to April, and core goods will shave off 6 basis points.”

Similarly, Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, expects CPI to rise to 3%, with most of the uplift driven by services inflation.

Both Deutsche Bank and Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast services inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.7%.

Notably, both organisations forecast a lower rate of UK inflation for May than the MPC itself. In its latest report (published in April), the MPC forecasted CPI to rise by 3.3% in the year to May, driven largely by a 3.9% rise in services inflation.

UK inflation data to be followed by interest rates decision

UK inflation data is released once per month, and the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets every six weeks to set UK interest rates.

This means every other MPC meeting and every third inflation data release coincide. Inflation data is released on Wednesdays and the MPC’s decision is posted on Thursdays, so when this happens the MPC announces its decision the day after inflation data is released.

That’s the case this week; the MPC’s interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday 18 June. The committee will factor tomorrow’s inflation data closely into its decision.

“Absent some huge surprises in this week’s inflation and labour-market figures, we think the MPC will say at Thursday’s policy meeting that they remain prepared to act but feel they can keep rates on hold for now,” said Robert Wood and Elliott Jordan Doak, chief UK economist and senior UK economist respectively at advisory firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note seen by MoneyWeek.

Why small changes in inflation make big differences to your finances

Inflation measures the rate at which prices rise or, from another perspective, the rate at which money falls in value. One pound today buys less than it did ten years ago.

The MPC targets a 2% rate of inflation. This is generally viewed by economists as a healthy rate of inflation (too little inflation or, worse, deflation are signs of a weakening economy).

The difference between 2% inflation and 3% might sound trivial, but over the long term it has a surprisingly large effect on your money.

“People often assume there isn't much difference between low rates of inflation, but the rule of 72 shows how it can mount up,” says MoneyWeek’s editor Andrew VanSickle. “At 4%, your money takes only 18 years to halve in value. At 3%, 24 years. At 2% – the Bank of England's target – 36 years.”

UK inflation data history

The peak for UK inflation in recent history came in October 2022, when the headline CPI inflation measure hit 11.1%.

CPI inflation fell below the Bank of England’s 2% target in September 2024, before rising steadily over the next year.

Until the war in Iran broke out, inflation had been trending downwards. The war’s outbreak, though, pushed UK inflation to 3.3% in March this year – ahead of the dip in April.

Could the Iran ceasefire ease UK inflation in time to avert rate hikes?

The MPC will look closely at tomorrow’s UK inflation data when it meets this week. But this data is backward-looking – reflecting what happened to UK prices in May. The committee will also pay close attention to what is likely to happen to inflation going forward.

With that in mind, the ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the resulting re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, could have come at the perfect time for rate-setters who had appeared set to decide between hiking rates, which risks stifling an already weakening economy, and cutting or holding them which could risk letting inflation get out of control.

“Falling oil prices have arrived at a convenient moment, giving both the [Federal Reserve] and the Bank of England something to work with ahead of their meetings this week,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG. “Cheaper energy takes pressure off inflation, and that should allow both central banks to strike a more measured tone than some of the more excitable commentary and market pricing seen since the US and Iran went to war.”

Your personal inflation rate

CPI inflation is just one way of measuring inflation. It is the headline rate measured by economists and policymakers largely because, of all the metrics, it is one of the easiest to compare internationally. For more information on different inflation measures, see our explainer on CPI vs RPI inflation.

All inflation measures have one thing in common: they distil an immensely complex combination of goods and prices across the whole economy into a single number. While that number in theory represents the economy as a whole, different people with different spending patterns will experience inflation differently from one another.

Everyone has their own personal inflation rate. You can calculate yours by answering a series of questions at the ONS’s personal inflation rate calculator.

“My personal inflation benchmark is the peppermint Aero,” says MoneyWeek’s editor Andrew VanSickle. “I paid 22p in 1988. Now it's 63p or so.”

Thank you for following today's live reporting ahead of tomorrow's UK inflation data release. We're pausing coverage here for this evening, but we'll be back live tomorrow morning to bring you the May inflation data as soon as it breaks at 7am.

Good morning, and welcome back to our live coverage of the upcoming UK inflation data release.

As a reminder, the Bank of England most recently forecasted a rise in Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation to 3.3%, though some economists believe that inflation will have been cooler at 3.0%.

We'll bring you the headline figure as it happens, as well as rolling reaction and analysis following the release.

UK inflation data release imminent

The May UK inflation data release is just minutes away. Will inflation have risen, and by how much if so?

BREAKING: UK inflation stays at 2.8% in May

UK inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) stayed constant at 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2026.

Lower food prices lead to surprisingly flat UK inflation

UK CPI inflation, which was expected to have risen in the 12 months to May compared to the previous month, has instead stayed flat with lower food prices counteracting increased transport costs.

“After last month’s slowdown, inflation held steady in May as various price movements offset each other,” said Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

“The main upward movement came from transport with airfares, vehicle taxes and petrol prices all pushing up inflation,” Fitzner continued. “These were offset by lower food prices, with decreases in inflation seen across a range of meat, dairy and vegetable items compared to last month, as well as the cost of domestic heating oil, which fell back after climbing in recent month[s].”

UK inflation in detail

Let’s have a look at some of the other UK inflation figures beyond that headline 2.8% rate of annualised CPI inflation.

While annualised CPI inflation held steady in May, on a monthly basis the metric increased by 0.2% from April, the same rate as in May 2025.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to May 2026, unchanged from the 12 months to April.

CPIH also rose by 0.2% in May 2026 – the same monthly rate as in May 2025.

Core CPI (CPI excluding volatile goods like energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to May 2026, up from 2.5% in the 12 months to April.

As had been predicted, CPI services inflation rose from an annual rate of 3.2% to 3.7% between April and May.

Could the Iran inflationary shock be short-lived?

When looked at in historical context, there is very little sign of a bump in inflation linked to the Iran war.

“UK inflation was flat during May, coming in below expectations despite higher energy prices continuing to weigh on UK households and businesses,” said Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing. “This reading will provide some hope that any rebound in UK inflation could be short-lived after the announcement of a framework deal earlier in the week between the White House and Iran to stop fighting.”

Other experts are striking a more cautious tone, though.

“Despite energy prices having fallen recently, there is more inflationary pressure to come for the UK, when the Ofgem price cap moves higher next month,” said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at asset manager Aberdeen.

Rachel Reeves: Economic plan is controlling inflation

The chancellor of the exchequer Rachel Reeves has responded to today’s inflation figures.

“While the war in the Middle East pushes prices up globally, we have got the right economic plan and inflation has held steady,” said Reeves.

“We’re protecting families and businesses from rising costs, with cuts in energy bills and freezes in fuel duty and rail fares.”

Reeves’s statement drew attention to measures that the government has brought in including targeted support on heating oil, reduced tariffs and an extension of the fuel duty cut to December 2026.

Which categories had the biggest impact on UK inflation?

Different categories of goods and services had contrasting effects on UK inflation during May.

Transport had the largest upward impact on an annualised basis, rising 6.8% in the 12 months to May and contributing 0.29 percentage points to 12-month CPI inflation. On a monthly basis transport costs increased by 0.4% in May, having fallen 1.8% in April.

Conversely, the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 0.1% during the month, which led to this category lowering annualised CPI inflation by 0.09 percentage points. While furniture and household goods prices increased 0.8% between April and May, they fell by 0.1% over the preceding 12 months, meaning this category reduced annualised CPI inflation by 0.04 percentage points.

Unchanged UK inflation suggests price pressures are ‘finely balanced’

The easing of food price pressures indicates that, beneath the headline impacts of higher energy prices, there is a longer-term disinflationary trend at play, according to Richard Flax, chief investment officer at wealth manager Moneyfarm.

“It was a modest positive surprise to see UK headline inflation hold at 2.8% in May, as consensus expectations had pointed to a move closer to 3%,” said Flax. “This suggests underlying price pressures remain more finely balanced than anticipated.”

Middle East disruption could still lead to higher UK inflation

Experts are warning UK consumers not to get carried away with the idea that the UK has escaped the inflationary risks resulting from the war in the Middle East, even following the peace deal negotiated between Iran and the US.

“Despite a peace deal being reached, disruption to global energy markets and related supply chains is yet to work its way through the system,” said Rob Morgan, chief investment analyst at wealth manager Charles Stanley. “Households still need to brace themselves for pricier shopping baskets and energy bills in the coming months.”

Despite this the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “is undoubtedly good news for consumers, business owners and central banks alike”, Morgan added. “It means that the price jolt won’t be as ferocious as it might have been, and it could give way to a calmer inflationary setting next year… it’s far from a ‘worst case’ inflationary scenario for UK households and businesses.”

UK inflation outlook looks softer, says Deutsche Bank chief economist

Investment bank Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist, Sanjay Raja, has highlighted the benign outlook for UK inflation implied by today’s release.

“Outside of services CPI, headline, core, and food prices [inflation] all undershot our expectations,” said Raja.

“Driving some of the downside in price momentum was a combination of weaker core goods prices and food prices. Indeed, despite rising energy costs, retailers remain hesitant to price in any cost pass-through.”

The easing of pricing pressures on these goods coincides with the apparent resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, which has already seen oil prices fall to around 10% below last month’s market assumptions.

“This will slowly flow through the inflation data over the summer and winter,” said Raja. “And, in even better news, the fall in oil prices has coincided with a fall in gas prices. It’s looking increasingly likely that the Ofgem Price Cap could be lower as opposed to higher come October 2026, bringing some much-needed relief for UK households and businesses.

“Altogether, the sting from the Iran conflict looks less than markets initially assumed,” Raja added. “The peak in CPI could end up well below what we saw last year.”

UK inflation recap

Here’s a recap of the main talking points from this morning’s UK inflation data release:

• CPI inflation was 2.8% in the 12 months to May, unchanged from the previous month.
• While transport costs rose, food prices fell month-to-month which contributed to the lower-than-expected figure.
• CPI services inflation rose to 3.7%, maintaining upward pressure on UK inflation more broadly.
• CPI rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis.

What does inflation mean for your money?

You’ll have already felt the impact of the May inflation figures the ONS has announced today when you bought travel tickets, food and drink or petrol last month. Inflation figures are backward-looking and reflect what people across the economy spend on everyday goods and services.

But beyond straining your monthly budget there are indirect consequences for your money when inflation runs above the 2% level that the Bank of England (BoE) targets.

First and foremost among these is the impact on interest rates. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is meeting this week to decide on interest rates. Higher inflation incentivises central bankers to raise interest rates, which would increase the interest you pay on any debt (including your mortgage) but would also increase the amount of interest you could accrue on savings and cash.

Higher inflation also puts up any utility bills you have that are inflation-linked. Many contracts have a clause allowing them to increase by the rate of annual inflation (often this is based on the Retail Prices Index (RPI) rather than CPI).

State pensioners also potentially stand to benefit, as the triple lock means that state pension payments increase by whichever is highest out of CPI inflation, average wage growth or 2.5%.

Inflation reality checks

UK inflation undercut expectations in May and that’s a cause for optimism in many respects. Before we get carried away though, various experts have cautioned that the trouble may not be over yet.

“On the face of it, a flat 2.8% reading on headline UK inflation, against a 3% expectation, and almost all of which attributed to transport costs, is good news,” said George Lagarias, chief economist at financial consultancy Forvis Mazars. But despite this and the anticipated impact of a peace deal between the US and Iran, Lagarias warned that “businesses should not casually overlook the jump in services inflation from 3.2% a month ago to 3.7%.”

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at investment platform AJ Bell, also highlighted that some categories such as motor fuel and pet ownership have seen significant inflation, while cumulative impacts of inflation can mount up over time.

While the US-Iran peace deal could mitigate inflation in future, “there are no guarantees that the deal will hold, and even if peace endures, price rises are already baked in through higher input costs”, said Coles.

Those on lower incomes are also disproportionately impacted by things like higher energy costs, as a greater proportion of their household income goes on energy-sensitive spending.

“The ONS Family Spending figures out last week showed that the 20% of households with the lowest disposable income spent 15.2% of their budget on food and drink – compared to 7.9% among the highest 20%. They also spent 7.8% on gas and electricity, compared to 3.9% among the richest fifth, and 2.5% on petrol, diesel and motor oils, compared to 2.1%,” said Coles.

What does the latest UK inflation data mean for interest rates?

The biggest question from here is what impact today’s inflation data might have on UK interest rates.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting this week, and tomorrow it will announce its latest interest rates decision.

We’re ending live inflation coverage here – but don’t worry, we’ve got a separate live report covering the MPC’s decision. Keep a close eye on that today and tomorrow as we bring you rolling news, insight and analysis of the announcement.

Did you miss out on the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO)? Perhaps you missed the cutoff altogether or failed to get your desired allocation of shares, given its fourfold oversubscription? In either case, you can still look forward to subsequent opportunities to get involved in the investment story du jour.

While most IPOs trigger a period of volatility the expectation with this one is that it will be sharper and more protracted. Given the huge level of attention, limited allocation available to UK retail investors and the staggered timeline for expected trading (selling as lockups expire and buying as the underlying indices of various tracker funds bring the stock onto their benchmarks), investors can expect swings in SpaceX’s share price to continue through the second half of the year, at least.

Lynn Hutchinson, head of ETF and index solutions at Charles Stanley, said: “It’s [not only] one of the most talked about stocks of the last few months but retail investors quite like a new stock becoming available. Plus it’s got the ‘Elon Musk factor’ – who has a huge retail fanbase as well, albeit not across the board. Many investors have wanted access to this company for years.”

Multiple buying opportunities as shares are released

Funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will be among the first index funds to include SpaceX, in line with newly amended rules.

These include fast-tracked entry, allowing inclusion to Nasdaq’s flagship index fund 15 days after an IPO instead of the previous window of three months, and removal of its minimum float requirements. A three times multiplier will be introduced; rather than the currently tradable market cap – or free-float – of $75 billion, the stock will be weighted based on a market cap of $225 billion, which could force passive investors to chase the stock, further fuelling volatility across the index as a whole.

Index providers MSCI and FTSE Russell will include SpaceX after 10 and five trading days, respectively.

S&P 500 index funds will include SpaceX later after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed it won’t fast-track the company’s inclusion in the index.

“There will be an initial dash for the shares because of the limited availability but after that, the next release will likely be after Q2 earnings, so more shares will likely come on between July and September, if indeed the holders (employees and early investors) decide to sell them,” said Hutchinson.

Early investors, staff and other insiders are subject to staged lockups to manage supply and demand, she added.

“It looks like it will be staged, with some released earlier, and the full lockup expiration after 180 days. We expect it will be staggered and therefore volatile for several months yet.”

She said clients had been in touch asking whether they should sell the Nasdaq in favour of something else. But she warned investors not to get carried away, reminding that the allocations within many of these funds would be tiny, given the 5% expected free-float stock being made available.

“Perhaps as it gets further along and if the stock’s still really volatile, it might make more of a difference. But at the moment we’re looking at, in some cases, 0.2% to 1% depending on which index it’s going into because there’s not enough free-float available.”

Hutchinson urged investors to think about the underlying inclusion criteria, whether they’re looking at a broader index fund or a specialist thematic exchange-traded fund (ETF).

“The VanEck Space Innovators ETF (LON: JEDG) is the largest space ETF by assets under management, which you’d expect [SpaceX] to go in, but it’s unlikely to go into that until September because it’s got a 10% requirement of free-float, and there won’t be 10%. It will go in at some stage, and I guess they’ll look at it around September again.”

Speaking to MoneyWeek, Moritz Henkel, product manager at VanEck EU, concurred; the company said it will wait until the September review before deciding if SpaceX will be added to the ETF, subject to it meeting the criteria at that time.

“There will be no pre-IPO or super fast-track inclusion, nor rule change,” he said.

From a governance perspective, his team believes any new company should be assessed against the full set of index rules, not on an ad hoc basis, especially because increased volatility makes it more difficult to find a fair price in the beginning.

“For us, it’s more important to stick to defined rules and have a consistent rules-based exposure than to chase this early onboarding of SpaceX.”

Elon Musk and his team have blazed the trail, bringing a government industry into the private sphere as a commercially viable ecosystem. Henkel said the reusable Falcon boosters were a turning point, dramatically lowering launch costs and enabling new space companies, seen in the proliferation of IPOs and special purpose acquisition companies (also known as SPACs) coming to market.

Yet much still depends on launch execution, R&D and mission reliability. As SpaceX transitions to public markets it will essentially rerate the whole sector, bringing greater transparency, investor scrutiny and pressure to meet deadlines, amplifying its successes and failures.

“We’ve seen much hype and the current growth estimates are obviously very ambitious. But we’re talking about decades, not months for their business strategies.”

He said the focus on risk is a real point of difference, which was highlighted in the IPO prospectus.

“A couple of failed missions may only have a small impact to the balance sheet – even though they are very costly – but they’re potentially having a much larger effect on the actual stock price. Failed missions lead to decreased investor confidence in the technical abilities, which can cause you to lose trust.

“When we’re looking at SpaceX in the coming months and years, and capabilities of meeting deadlines, and commitments they’ve communicated to the open market, these are now more pressured because they are in the public market.”

Where will the money come from for this massive IPO?

Several reports cite JPMorgan’s estimates that roughly $95 billion worth of holdings – likely in the big tech names – will be sold off to accommodate new positions in SpaceX.

In her blog last week, Boring Money’s Holly Mackay makes a similar point: “If large investors want to buy in, they will need to free up cash by selling other holdings. They might take some profits from high-performing shares like Nvidia, so I’d expect some knock-on volatility in other shares which have had strong gains so far this year.”

What other IPOs have shown parallels to SpaceX?

While the hype may be comparable to Google’s IPO back in 2014, the reality for those trying to participate in a hugely popular public listing may more closely mirror that seen when Royal Mail floated in October 2013, with a seven times oversubscription.

Jeremy Fawcett, head of Platforum – a retail investment consultancy – said Royal Mail was the last big one in the UK, comparable to the government sell-offs during the move to privatisation in the 1980s.

If the amount you actually buy is significantly lower than what you’d hoped for, by the time you come to sell, taking into account trading fees and foreign exchange, you have to really think about how much you end up with.

“There’s a huge amount of uncertainty… if you remember the 2012 Olympics, we all applied for hundreds of tickets. And most people got nothing. So you get excited because you think, ‘I put my money on the line’, and then you get very little out of it.”

Pensioners who were in certain pension schemes of failed companies are in line for a share of almost £2 billion in top-up payments.

The Pension Protection Fund (PPF) – the industry-funded rescue fund for defined benefit pension schemes – will begin writing to in excess of 300,000 former staff of collapsed firms from July. Payments will be made from January 2027.

These pensioners missed out on inflation protection which they should have been entitled to as part of their payments from their company pension schemes – meaning their pension should have risen in line with prices but didn’t.

Defined benefit pensions pay a regular guaranteed income based on a worker’s salary and length of service. Many are closed to new members but are particularly valuable because of the inflation protection which boosted the retirement income.

However some pensioners were denied this valuable benefit before 1997 by their former employers, in firms that later went bust.

A recent rule change now means they will get the money they are owed. In April, the Pension Schemes Act became law, allowing the PPF and the Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) to make the additional inflation-linked payments.

The PPF protects millions of UK defined benefit scheme members if their employer becomes insolvent. The Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) is a separate but similar government-funded scheme designed to help those whose employers became insolvent between 1997 and 2005. Both are administered by the PPF.

A PPF spokesperson said: “Supporting our members is central to the PPF's role. The government's decision to enable us to pay inflation increases on pre-97 compensation will strengthen outcomes for many PPF and FAS members.

“Implementing this change requires significant work and we’re making good progress to be able to start paying these increases to eligible members from January 2027. We will continue to keep members fully informed throughout."

Who will get payouts?

The change in the law applies to PPF and FAS members whose former pension schemes promised to pay its members pre-1997 inflation-linked increases in their retirement payments.

Prior to 1997 – long before the PPF and FAS were set up – the law did not compel employers who provided defined benefit scheme pensions to also provide inflation protection for their members’ retirement income.

In practice the majority of defined benefit pension schemes did, in their scheme rules, provide inflation protection, but not all.

When the PPF and FAS were set up, the founding legislation (Pensions Act 2004) did not allow these lifeboat funds to pay pre-97 inflation-linked increases to all their members.

Now, however, the change in the Pension Schemes Act applies to PPF and FAS members whose former schemes promised pre-97 indexation as a right.

The PPF has, in the past months, reviewed the scheme rules of all 2,000 schemes which have transferred to the PPF and FAS.

Having completed this exercise, the PPF has determined that in excess of 300,000 members will be eligible for pre-1997 inflation-linked pension increases in the future.

Affected pension scheme members don’t have to do anything. The PPF will write to those eligible from next month.

The average asking price for a property fell in June, dipping by 0.6% (equivalent to £2,113), as historically high stock and low buyer demand have kept them on ice.

It marks the largest fall recorded in June for 14 years, and may be a result of the May heatwave distracting buyers from house-hunting, according to the latest house price index from Rightmove.

The dip means the average asking price for a property in the UK is now £376,191, around 0.5% lower than this time last year.

While summer tends to be a slower season for the housing market, this June has been particularly difficult for prices, which typically rise modestly in the month.

The recent slowdown may be a result of the high level of competition and low demand in the market, according to Rightmove.

Housing stock is still at a historic high, and sellers are responding to this by cutting asking prices more fiercely in an attempt to make their homes more attractive to buyers.

Buyer demand was down 10% year-on-year in May. One reason for this larger-than-normal dip in demand could be higher mortgage rates.

Rates have been high since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February, the effects of which are expected to weigh heavily on the UK economy.

Inflation in particular is expected to rise, it’s unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates in 2026. That, in turn, means mortgage rates are set to stay high for the foreseeable future.

Rightmove adds that slumping demand may be worse this year as heatwaves and the World Cup are set to distract buyers for the next few months.

Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, said: “It’s unusual to see a price fall of this size in June, as we would normally expect to see modest price growth at this point in the year.

“What’s different this time is a combination of factors, including wider economic uncertainty, the timing of the May bank holiday and unusual heatwave, and the high number of homes on the market, which together appear to be bringing forward the traditionally slower summer market.”

While asking prices have dipped, sales activity has remained relatively steady. Though Rightmove’s data shows sales are down 6% year-on-year, 2026’s numbers are broadly in line with those from recent years (about the same as 2024 and 5% more than 2023).

Babcock added: “While the summer market has come a bit early this year, overall activity is still within a typical historic range. What has changed is some buyer behaviour; with more homes to choose from and higher borrowing costs, buyers are deliberating more and taking longer over their decisions.

“Sales activity remains stable, but it’s a very price-sensitive market with buyers looking out for the right property at the right price.”

Asking prices grew in Scotland and London

While almost all regions in the UK saw average asking prices fall, Scotland and London actually saw them rise in June.

The average asking price for a house in Scotland is up 0.8% in June, bringing it to £207,011. Sales in the country are also the fastest in the UK, with the average seller only having to wait 31 days to find a buyer. Overall, asking prices are up by 3.3% on the year.

Asking prices in London have been falling recently, but June’s data has bucked the trend. The average home in the capital is now 0.3% more expensive, with average asking prices coming in at £687,080.

Despite the June bump, asking prices for homes in the capital are still lower today than they were a year ago, slumping by 1.2%.

The poorest-performing region in the UK for asking price growth in June was Wales. The average asking price for a house in the country is now £271,459, down 1.6% this month and 0.3% on the year.

Small-cap stocks have been abandoned by investors. That is bad news not only for the companies themselves, but for the wider UK economy. In the past, the smallest businesses listed on the London stock market have played an important role in Britain's economy. Ambitious young companies could raise money, expand their operations and, if successful, grow into much larger businesses. Investors who backed them early often enjoyed excellent returns along the way.

Today, that system is breaking down. A series of regulatory changes and industry shifts has steadily diverted money away from smaller companies and towards the largest firms in the market. The result is a funding drought for many promising businesses and fewer opportunities for savers seeking long-term growth. Because these changes are now deeply embedded, a reversal looks unlikely anytime soon.

That does not mean investors should ignore small caps. In fact, the current environment may offer some of the best opportunities seen for years. But investors need to adapt. Simply buying cheap shares and waiting for the market to recognise their value is no longer enough. Many small-cap stocks remain overlooked for years. The most attractive opportunities are often companies that can grow rapidly, recover from temporary setbacks, or unlock value through corporate activity. In other words, investors should be looking for tomorrow's mid-caps rather than today's statistically cheap shares.

Finding bargains in small-cap stocks isn't enough

The UK stock market is shrinking as listed companies disappear through takeovers, private-equity bids and delistings. At the same time, fewer investors are directing money towards small caps. As a result, prices at the lower end of the market often fail to reflect the underlying performance of a business. In theory, that should make stockpicking easier. If markets become less efficient, bargains should become more common. The problem is that cheap shares can now remain cheap for a long time. Buying undervalued stocks only works if someone eventually notices that they are undervalued.

To understand why this is happening, it helps to look at how the wealth-management industry has changed. Not long ago, stockbrokers and fund managers devoted considerable resources to researching smaller companies and allocating clients' capital across the market. That process helped ensure that money flowed to promising businesses and that share prices broadly reflected reality. Things have changed. Building bespoke portfolios has become increasingly expensive and administratively burdensome. Faced with rising compliance requirements and growing scrutiny over fees, many advisers have stopped making investment decisions themselves. Clumsy rules from the regulator triggered this shift. To eliminate compliance risks and operational costs, advisers stopped managing money altogether. Instead, they outsourced the process entirely to mass-market model-portfolio services (MPS).

That trend has concentrated massive wealth into a handful of firms. Four dominant discretionary managers now control the bulk of the UK MPS market. Quilter WealthSelect, Tatton Investment Management, Timeline Portfolios and AJ Bell Investments manage more than £70 billion combined and are growing rapidly. Today, the MPS marketplace relies almost entirely on passive tracking funds. Driven by regulatory pressure to keep fees low, providers invest in cheap index funds that replicate the wider market. Human judgment has been replaced by algorithms. Instead of analysing whether a business is worth buying, a passive fund allocates cash based purely on how large a company it already is.

The big four allocate a combined £9 billion to the UK stock market. Yet tracing the money down to the underlying holdings reveals that almost none of it reaches smaller companies. When investment committees use passive UK equity trackers, index rules determine where the money goes. These index rules explain why the largest wealth managers hold next to nothing in smaller companies. In the past, a balanced portfolio routinely allocated several percent to small caps. Today, that support has vanished. Quilter WealthSelect and Tatton Investment

Management control around £50 billion between them, yet their reliance on broad market benchmarks dilutes actual small-cap exposure to around 0.3% of total assets. AJ Bell relies on trackers that systematically lop off the bottom 3% of the investable market, so its allocation to pure small caps sits at virtually nothing.

This starvation of capital has triggered a destructive feedback loop, worsened by past regulatory mistakes. New rules permanently damaged the stock market by forcing brokers to charge separately for research and trading. When active funds dominated the market, brokers employed armies of researchers to write detailed reports, helping fund managers choose where to invest. In the past, brokers spent time analysing small companies to drum up interest among investors and find buyers for their shares, funding the work through trading in large companies. This research gave smaller firms visibility and kept their share prices accurate. Once the regulator banned this so-called bundling, the commercial model for small-cap broking collapsed because passive tracking funds do not buy research.

Analysts' coverage for companies valued under £250 million has all but vanished. Today, hundreds of listed British businesses are completely ignored by the market. With no regular broker reports, private investors have to work much harder, using specialised resources to find out how well these businesses are performing. Institutional investors will not buy shares in a company that nobody covers and brokers will not spend money writing about companies that the big wealth platforms are blocked from buying. Investing is becoming a purely automated exercise driven by index size, leaving high-quality small companies completely cut off.

How to find the right small-cap stocks

Yet all is not lost. For savvy investors who understand this breakdown, the dysfunction creates a lucrative hunting ground. To succeed, investors must leave behind old-style value investing. Buying a stock simply because it looks cheap on paper is a mistake, as passive investing means that value stocks may remain cheap forever. Instead, investors must look through these three specific lenses to find the stocks that can entice money from investors.

The first lens focuses attention on structural growth – that is, high-quality businesses expanding their operations and becoming more valuable in the process, generating high levels of real growth by deploying a proven commercial formula. This could make them the mid-caps of the future. When a company grows its earnings consistently, the compounding effect eventually overwhelms the lack of market interest. Even if the valuation multiple stays depressed, the sheer scale of the underlying profit expansion forces the share price higher, dragging the business out of the small-cap index to where there are far more investors.

The second lens reveals recovery plays that have hit cyclical lows. The turbulent economy of the last few years has battered corporate earnings, causing share prices to collapse and pushing formerly substantial businesses down into the small-cap sector. But this is often a temporary condition driven by external cyclical factors rather than permanent structural decline. The goal is to identify businesses that have survived the worst of the downturn and have the strength to capitalise on the inevitable rebound. When the cycle turns, these companies will enjoy a dramatic recovery, delivering an explosive bounce in earnings.

The third lens focuses on corporate activity – revealing under-the-radar businesses where an activist investor has built a stake to force operational change, unlock shareholder value or streamline the group. The activity can take many forms – from cost-cutting programmes to selling off non-core assets, or shrinking the share count using excess cash – and create prime targets for full takeovers by external corporate buyers. Private-equity firms and larger international corporations routinely scan the UK small-cap market for high-quality assets trading at steep discounts to their private market value. When a corporate buyer launches a full cash takeover bid, the market reaction can deliver value for shareholders. The following companies are examples that meet some of these three criteria.

Nine of the best UK small-cap stocks

Fintel (LSE: FNTL) is a structurally growing business that is priced as if it is not. It provides critical compliance data and fintech software to thousands of British financial advisers through its dominant SimplyBiz and Defaqto brands. The result is a highly predictable stream of recurring subscription income, with demand likely to increase as regulation across the retail wealth sector becomes more stringent. Yet the market prices the combined entity at a steep discount to the price that other similar businesses have been acquired for. This allows investors to buy a highly scalable fintech at a bargain valuation, long before the compounding earnings force a market rerating.

Software Circle (LSE: SFT) aims to generate structural growth via a disciplined consolidation strategy. It is actively buying up niche software businesses within highly fragmented sectors across the UK. Operations are at an early stage, but management is progressing sensibly, securing acquisitions at very attractive multiples while maintaining a lean head office and a decentralised operational structure. This playbook closely mirrors the model of other firms that have generated immense long-term wealth. Though tiny today, this firm has all the traits necessary to deliver exceptional multi-year shareholder returns.

Amcomri Group (LSE: AMCO) operates a strict buy, improve, build strategy across the fragmented UK engineering and manufacturing sectors. The business targets high-quality industrial firms facing the owner's retirement, acquiring them at low single-digit multiples before driving organic margin improvements. This roll-up model generates highly predictable structural growth completely independent of the wider macroeconomic backdrop. Recent final results confirm this operational formula is working, with pre-tax profits significantly ahead of market expectations.

Vanquis Banking Group (LSE: VANQ) is a cyclical recovery play. Formerly a FTSE 100 stock called Provident Financial, the lender shrank into a micro-cap minnow after major operational disasters. Management has finished cleaning up the wreckage, yet the market still prices the shares as if collapse is certain. Vanquis provides credit cards and vehicle finance to millions of sub-prime borrowers that mainstream banks ignore. Management targets mid-teens returns on tangible equity by 2027. If they deliver, the shares will be unbelievably cheap and a sharp market rerating should drive the share price up to reward investors who timed the recovery correctly. The bank operates as a far better business than its depressed price reflects.

Focusrite (LSE: TUNE) is a clear case of a former stockmarket darling caught at a cyclical low. The audio-products group enjoyed an unprecedented sales boom during the pandemic. However, as global demand normalised, the business wrestled with severe inventory overstocking and costly distribution headaches that clouded performance for several years. Recent trading updates indicate that these operational problems are finally clearing. Trading on a low multiple of its current depressed earnings, Focusrite offers massive upside. As underlying profits recover toward historic levels, this corporate recovery could trigger a rise to a much higher share price.

Marshalls (LSE: MSLH) serves as another example of a business hitting a cyclical low, operating as a highly respected supplier to the struggling UK building industry. High interest rates, inflation and uncertainty about policy have brought domestic construction to its knees, dragging the business down with it. This company once commanded a premium valuation as a well-known mid-cap, but it has now fallen into obscurity. The shares historically traded at a multiple to book value, yet they currently languish at a clear discount. When building activity inevitably recovers, Marshalls will benefit immensely, potentially driving a sharp recovery in its share price.

Capita (LSE: CPI) is another cyclical recovery play, a fallen angel offering massive potential for recovery. The outsourcing giant once sat in the FTSE 100 before a collapse dragged it down to micro-cap levels. New management has aggressively cleaned up the balance sheet, selling non-core software assets to eliminate debt. The business still generates more than £2.4 billion in annual revenues, yet trades at a deeply depressed valuation. This turnaround relies entirely on internal cost-cutting rather than macroeconomic growth. As administrative cost-cutting leaves more free cash in the bank, the shares could enjoy a substantial and justified market rerating.

Funding Circle (LSE: FCH) is an underappreciated growth story driven by massive operational gearing. The digital platform matches small business borrowers with institutional lenders. This matching model requires very few incremental cost rises to service new volume. This structural efficiency allows expanding revenues to drop straight to the bottom line. Pre-tax profits recently surged from £3.4 billion to £20.3 billion and are on track almost to double again to £35 million this year. The wider market remains blind to this compounding scaleability, mispricing a high-margin financial matchmaker as just another lender.

SDI Group (LSE: SDI) offers a double whammy by combining structural growth with a cyclical margin recovery. The company runs a highly disciplined buy-and-build strategy, acquiring niche scientific-instrument businesses that specialise in optics and photonics for laboratories. This consolidation model delivered excellent long-term returns until a recent downturn in its core scientific end markets depressed the group's earnings. This temporary pain leaves the shares trading at a very cheap valuation. As laboratory budgets normalise and operating margins recover, investors could capture the combination of compounding growth and an explosive rebound.

The best specialist funds in the sector

Picking individual micro-cap stocks requires patience and knowledge, and is certainly not for everyone. For investors who prefer to delegate the task, backing a specialist fund manager with a proven record is sensible. Two specific investment trusts have proved their ability to navigate these markets with skill. The lead manager of Rockwood Strategic (LSE: RKW), Richard Staveley, has more than 25 years of experience and runs a concentrated portfolio of undervalued businesses. He engages directly with boards to unlock value, a strategy that has delivered a stellar record. Staveley targets unloved, mispriced assets and drags them through a turnaround process until the wider market is forced to pay attention.

For those looking even further down the market scale, Onward Opportunities (LSE: ONWD) provides exposure to some of the smallest companies listed in the UK. Lead manager Laurence Hulse launched the trust in March 2023 on the Aim junior market and took it to the main market in April 2026. He deliberately operates in the smallest, most illiquid territory and his execution has been outstanding, delivering a very good performance since the trust's inception.

For those selecting individual stocks today, three of the stocks mentioned above look particularly interesting. Focusrite is a cyclical recovery play that has finally cleared some post-pandemic hurdles and positioned its manufacturing operations for a strong earnings recovery. Vanquis Banking Group remains absurdly mispriced, trading at a steep discount to its underlying net asset value while the market completely ignores its mid-teens profitability targets. And Software Circle provides an underappreciated growth story with a disciplined, decentralised model for integrating niche acquisitions efficiently. Investors who back these stocks will gain direct exposure to tangibly improving businesses.

For investors who prefer to delegate the stockpicking, Rockwood Strategic is the ideal vehicle. It has a long record of active engagement by the board and offers instant diversification across a concentrated basket of deeply undervalued turnaround plays.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

RentGuarantor Holdings (Aim: RGG) has been given a boost by the Renters' Rights Act, one of the most significant pieces of legislation to hit the UK rental market in decades. It's only been in force since the beginning of May, but the Act is already driving a complete rewriting of the market.

Under the new law, fixed-term tenancies have been abolished, “no fault” evictions are no longer allowed, rents can only be raised once a year, and during the first 12 months of the tenancy, the landlord cannot serve notice to move back into the property or sell it. These changes, far from protecting tenants, have forced landlords to become more defensive.

The changes have made it much harder for landlords to evict tenants who can't or won't pay their rent, piling pressure on a system that's already on the verge of collapse. According to professional body Propertymark, due to lengthy court backlogs, the average time from claim to repossession has risen to more than 68 weeks, compared with just over 20 weeks in 2019. At the point of eviction, average unpaid rent stands at £12,708 across England and Wales and £19,223 in London.

Landlords have responded by demanding that tenants provide a guarantor before they agree deals. According to multiple reports, around 40% of landlords now require guarantors for both new and existing tenants. This is where RentGuarantor comes into play.

How RentGuarantor works

The firm is a rare example of how effective London's capital markets can be for early-stage growth businesses. Founded in 2016 by Paul Foy, a property investor since the mid-1980s, RentGuarantor does what it says on the tin – guarantees rents. Tenants pay a fee (£20) for an initial background check and the firm uses tools such as Open Banking and AI to calculate how much the tenant can afford and if they're able to maintain payments. If the tenant passes the check, which should be completed the same day, RentGuarantor can offer the guarantee.

This incurs a further fee, usually around three to five weeks' rent, depending on the underlying risk profile. When the tenant has paid and signed, RentGuarantor provides a legally binding guarantee of rental payments to the landlord or letting agent. Unlike traditional guarantors, such as parents or grandparents, this provides an extra layer of protection for the landlord. RentGuarantor passes the risk to a panel of insurers while collecting the origination fee and remaining the key point of contact for customers.

Five years of RentGuarantor Holdings on the London market

After spending five years building the foundations, Foy and his team took the company public in 2021. It listed on the Aquis exchange in 2021 with hardly any revenue and moved to the Aim junior market in the second half of 2025. The new listing raised £4 million in 2025 to support its growth efforts and it ended the year with revenue of £2.4 million, up 87% year-on-year. The founder has remained a key shareholder with a 30% stake.

RentGuarantor hasn't charged into the market seeking break-neck growth and drawing down shareholders' goodwill to fund spending. There's a very tight grip on marketing spending, which totalled just £200,000 in 2024 and £500,000 in 2025 against revenue of £2.4 million, or around £165 per contract (based on the year-end figure of 3,123 contracts). The focus over the past five years has been on getting the offering right and putting in place the right technology and team to scale up effectively.

The firm has now reached the point where this hard work is beginning to pay off. In May, the month the Renters' Rights Act came into force, RentGuarantor recorded a 115% increase in unaudited revenue compared with the average for the first four months of the year. Moreover, revenue per contract was up 24%. The group also recorded its first positive monthly Ebitda earnings since its admission to trading – well ahead of the board's expectations.

The challenges facing RentGuarantor Holdings

The key risk for the group here will be scaling up without falling flat on its face, as so many firms do when they encounter a sudden surge in demand. The Act is driving demand for guarantees, but it'll also lead to a surge in disputes.

To help, RentGuarantor is looking to AI and has an expert on the matter in its orbit. The AI strategy is being led by Dave Cliff, a non-executive director and professor of computer science at the University of Bristol. He previously worked at MIT's artificial intelligence laboratory, so unlike many other businesses, which seem to be turning to AI with little actual understanding of the benefits, drawbacks and costs, RentGuarantor looks well-placed to exploit the benefits of the technology fully. Management estimates the group can process 20,000 contracts per year, but that will rise to 100,000 with AI's help.

According to house broker Shore Capital, RentGuarantor could agree 7,000 contracts this year, 13,000 in 2027 and 62,000 by 2030. Revenue could hit £6 million in 2026, rising to £19 million by 2028 and £54 million by 2030. Even if it achieves this lofty growth, it would still leave the group at only 3.4% of the potential total market.

Now that the firm is essentially self-funding, there's scope for marketing spending to rise. Shore Capital expects a ten times rise by 2030, easily covered by the firm's 79% gross margin. The broker has pencilled in adjusted earnings per share of 3.6p by 2028. As with all early-stage firms, these forecasts are likely to be wrong, but they illustrate the growth potential if the firm manages to scale up over the next 12 months. This is a high-risk play, but one with a huge and growing market to support it.

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Archer Aviation (Nasdaq: ACHR) is a company that focuses on advanced aircraft, particularly a category described as eVTOL (electrical vertical take-off and landing). These light aircraft offer the promise of being able to take off and land without a runway, but in a much more efficient, cost-effective and environmentally friendly manner than helicopters. This would enable them to overcome two major problems with helicopters: expense and noise.

Other technology companies ranging from SpaceX to Anthropic have floated on the stock market at valuations of hundreds of billions – or even trillions – of dollars. Excitement over technology stocks is at fever pitch. However, the ascendancy of these high-profile names shouldn't obscure the fact that the market has already started to sour on some technology firms with bold visions of the future. Archer Aviation is a case in point.

Archer Aviation wants to make flying taxis

Archer's idea is that eVTOL aircraft could allow people to avoid congested urban streets and motorways, particularly in the US, for trips that are too short for planes. Some argue that using these “flying cars” could even become the equivalent of calling a taxi for those who want a greater degree of speed and convenience, but can't afford to charter a conventional aircraft. However, as with any eye-catching technology, bridging the gap between hype and reality is proving to be a major challenge.

For example, even though the US government has tried to accelerate the regulatory process, getting the aircraft approved for use in US airspace will still take several years. Next, Archer Aviation needs to find a way to manufacture them at scale and at a reasonable cost, and then convince people to buy them. All the evidence suggests that despite some limited successful test flights, Archer Aviation is a long way from completing any of those steps, especially compared with rival firms in the area such as Beta Technologies. There are also wider concerns around how eVTOLs will be able to fit safely into airspace used by planes, helicopters and drones.

With no profits in sight, here's how to short Archer Aviation

Perhaps the most compelling argument against Archer Aviation is the fact that it burning through large sums of money. It lost $618 million last year. The board admits that it expects to lose up to $200 million next quarter alone. The company has enough cash to sustain these losses in the short run, but analysts expect steep losses to continue throughout the next few years, with no route to profitability in sight. The stock's valuation is nonetheless so high that even if Archer's revenue takes off, it will still be valued at around 30 times expected 2027 sales.

Investors also seem to have soured on Archer. Despite a brief resurgence in the spring, the stock is on a downward trajectory. It has lost almost two-thirds from its 52-week peak, and trades well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. I would therefore suggest shorting it at the current price of $5.73 at £300 per $1. I would cover the position if it hit $8.73, which gives you a total downside of £900.

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The 2020s have swung investors between exuberance and despair. What this decade has reminded us is that markets are driven by forces that are nearly impossible to predict and that genuine diversification, not just across firms or geographies but also asset classes, styles and valuation, is the most reliable basis for long-term returns.

Diversification is famously the only free lunch in finance and its value goes beyond performance: portfolios built to withstand drawdowns also protect investors from the emotion-driven decisions that volatile markets so often provoke.

With a wave of mega-cap initial public offerings expected to deepen the S&P 500's already significant concentration in AI and technology, now is the time to ask: how truly diversified are you? Our VT Chelsea Managed Funds range is built on exactly this principle, blending active and passive strategies across asset classes and geographies with a valuation-conscious approach and no obligation to follow benchmarks. Here are three holdings that show how we stay diversified across all market conditions.

Three funds to consider

Despite its global remit, the Ranmore Global Equity fund holds just 5% in technology and 25% in North America, vastly underweight compared with the index on both counts. Manager Sean Peche, who has more than 25 years of experience, tilts towards businesses with pricing power and recurring demand.

The fund has higher exposure to sectors such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples and communication services. The fund trades on 8.8 times forward earnings against 19.3 times for the index, and offers a yield of 4% compared with the index's 1.7%. In 2022, when growth and technology stocks sold off sharply, Ranmore delivered positive returns.

Ironically, it is the so-called “Jurassic Park” industries such as mining that may be among the best positioned to benefit from the AI revolution rather than be disrupted by it. You cannot commoditise what has already been commoditised and you cannot conjure a copper mine out of thin air. Meanwhile, the build-out of AI infrastructure, from data centres to robotics, is driving an explosion in demand for the very materials the BlackRock World Mining Trust (LSE: BRWM) holds.

Copper, one of its largest exposures, is essential to electronics, data centres and electrification, and AI-driven growth in global GDP is only expected to accelerate that demand further. Managed by one of the most experienced teams in the sector, the trust spans everything from explorers and developers to major diversified producers across gold, copper, iron-ore and platinum-group metals, with an attractive dividend on top. Natural resources and mining equities have a historically low correlation to technology stocks and real assets often outperform when stretched tech valuations come under pressure.

UK smaller companies are currently experiencing their longest period of underperformance in years, yet over most long-term timeframes, small caps have outperformed their larger counterparts. UK small caps are where some of the best value available in global equity markets is right now and overseas investors have been quicker to recognise it than many at home. Philip Rodrigs, a decorated UK small-cap manager with sector-leading returns dating back to 2006, runs WS Raynar UK Smaller Companies with a high-conviction, bottom-up approach targeting firms with strong growth potential, improving margins and share prices trading well below intrinsic value.

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At the annual meeting of Edinburgh Worldwide (LSE: EWI) at the end of April, Saba Capital was at last successful in ousting the trust's directors and replacing them with their own nominees. The US activist had a 30% shareholding in EWI and gained the support of a couple of other sizable investors, and the board was unable to summon a high-enough turnout from the rest of the shareholders to win.

Saba objected to an ill-conceived proposal to merge Edinburgh Worldwide with its sister trust Baillie Gifford US Growth (LSE: USA), which also has Saba as a 29% shareholder. More importantly, it was furious that EWI cut its stake in SpaceX by 35% in October, shortly before the rocket and satellite firm's valuation doubled to $800 billion. Saba demanded to know whether this decision was made by the board or Baillie Gifford.

An obvious answer for Edinburgh Worldwide

The new board says it will now launch a review into Edinburgh Worldwide's “historic significant portfolio activity and related decision-making processes”. Yet the answer seems obvious. Two other trusts managed by Baillie Gifford made more modest reductions in their holdings – USA and Schiehallion (LSE: MNTN) – while Scottish Mortgage (LSE: SMT) made none. If this were a Baillie Gifford decision, all would have sold equally. Almost certainly, Edinburgh Worldwide directors thought their holding in SpaceX was too large and asked to sell. Baillie Gifford would then have offered other trusts the opportunity to reduce. Some did, others didn't.

A wiser board would have asked Baillie Gifford for advice, followed it, and sold none, or only a small proportion. For that mistake, the directors were rightly ousted. But dismissing Baillie Gifford, who bought the stake in the first place and were unwilling sellers of any of it, would be a terrible mistake.

In the last year, Edinburgh Worldwide shares have returned 70%. The discount to net asset value (NAV) has shrunk to 1%. The NAV return has been 60%, far ahead of market indices, and is rapidly recovering the underperformance of prior years. Strong performance is very likely to continue.

Saba's mooted alternative strategy makes no sense. It wants to take over as manager and use Edinburgh Worldwide to invest in other investment trusts that are trading at large discounts to NAV. The problem is that discounts have fallen to single digits on average and are lower for trusts invested in quoted equities. Higher discounts remain at trusts with illiquid assets, with excessive gearing or where the trust is under the thumb of a controlling shareholder. There is no easy money to be made from activist campaigns against these trusts. Saba did well to invest in the sector, but the opportunity has now gone and is unlikely to reappear for many years.

What will Edinburgh Worldwide do next?

So what will the new directors do? The message is muddled. They say they will “continue to work closely with Baillie Gifford regarding the company's holding in SpaceX and potential future liquidity initiatives”. They promise a tender offer after SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). With the shares trading so close to NAV, this is unnecessary. In any case, Edinburgh Worldwide will be locked into its SpaceX holding for six months after the IPO, so “working closely with Baillie Gifford” implies retaining it as manager for now.

They propose appointing new directors, which will be difficult without clarity on the manager and strategy. The best solution is surely to renew the agreement with Baillie Gifford and let it get on with the job that it was doing rather well.

That would make Saba's activist campaign completely pointless. It might cause Saba to call another extraordinary general meeting to seek to replace the directors it has just appointed. But it is more likely that Saba would just sell its stake at a large profit and walk away. Let's hope the new board shows that its claim to be independent of Saba is for real.

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The Caprons, Lewes, East Sussex

This Grade II-listed Georgian house in the centre of Lewes was once home to historian Asa Briggs, who was also a Bletchley Park code breaker. The garden includes a Grade-II listed, octagonal summer house. 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 3 reception rooms, kitchen, cellars, roof terrace, walled garden.

Price: £2.1m Jackson-Stops 01444-484400

Broomshields Hall, Satley, Bishop Auckland, County Durham

A Grade II-listed Georgian house with gardens that include a one-bedroom cottage, two summer houses and a lake. The house has a carved oak staircase and a large kitchen with an Aga. 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 3 reception rooms, library, 18 acres.

Price: £1.75m Finest Properties 0330-111 2266

The Manor House, Great Harrowden, Northamptonshire

A Grade II-listed manor house in a popular village, set in south-facing gardens with a kitchen garden with a greenhouse and a circular summer house with sofas and a fridge for wine. The house has beamed ceilings, panelled walls and period fireplaces. 6 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 3 reception rooms, breakfast kitchen, attic, pond, 0.8 acres.

Price: £1.15m Fine & Country 01604-309030

The Court, Axbridge, Somerset

A Grade II-listed Georgian house in Axbridge with views towards Glastonbury Tor. The house is set in gardens that include a summer house and an area dedicated to archery. It has flagstone and oak floors, period fireplaces and an indoor swimming pool with a gym. 7 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 3 reception rooms, breakfast kitchen, garden room, cinema, courtyard, parking, walled gardens, kitchen garden, 1.15 acres.

Price: £2.395m House & Heritage 01257-441990

Orchard Cottage, Wood End, Ardeley, Hertfordshire

A Grade II-listed, 17th-century house comprising three original cottages, with a summer house with a wood-burning stove and Wi-Fi. The house has exposed wall and ceiling timbers and inglenook fireplaces. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, reception room, gardens, 0.75 acres.

Price: £1.15m Fine & Country 01920-443898

Polwarth Terrace, Merchiston, Edinburgh

A duplex apartment on the first floor of a period property in the sought-after area of Merchiston. The flat retains its period fireplaces and has a dining room with French doors opening onto a balcony and a spiral staircase leading to a garden with a summer house. 6 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, reception room, office/bedroom 7, dining kitchen, garage, summer house, parking.

Price: £985,000+ Savills 0131-247 3770

Moreves Manor, Great Waldingfield, Sudbury, Suffolk

A Grade II-listed, 17th-century house set in large gardens that include a wildlife pond and a summer house complete with a shower, sauna and wood-burning stove. The house has exposed wall and ceiling timbers and a breakfast kitchen with an Aga. 6 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 reception rooms, office, garden room, outdoor swimming pool, 1.58 acres.

Price: £950,000+ Strutt & Parker 01473-220444

Heamoor, Penzance, Cornwall

A renovated, Grade II-listed Cornish long house set in landscaped gardens with a tree house, an orangery overlooking the kitchen garden and a summer house that is used as a pottery studio. The house has Georgian sash windows, open fireplaces and a newly fitted kitchen with French doors leading onto the gardens. 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 3 reception rooms, study, utility with en-suite shower, workshop, paddock, stable block, 2.5acres.

Price: £1.2m Savills 01872-243 200

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ESG investing – which focuses on environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics – is the latest iteration of ethical or sustainable investing, whereby investors aim for returns without compromising their principles. ESG considers a company's impact on the environment and society and operational matters such as transparency over leadership decisions, executives' pay, diversity, and shareholders' rights, alongside typical financial metrics.

The rise and fall of ESG investing

ESG investing peaked between 2020 and 2022 with a surge of fund launches and record asset flows driven by huge subsidies for clean energy and ultra-low interest rates, which encouraged investment in alternative assets. Covid also fostered a re-evaluation of priorities and a growing emphasis on ethics and sustainability. Investments in global ESG funds topped $645 billion in 2021.

The bubble burst when central banks began hiking interest rates to squeeze out inflation after the pandemic. Higher borrowing costs made speculative clean-energy projects more expensive and risky, exacerbating the impact of the broader flight to safety.

It was feared that ESG investing could go the way of socially responsible investing (SRI), its precursor in the 1990s. That trend saw investors focus on growth stocks as they filtered out the likes of tobacco, alcohol and defence stocks, which tended to be value and income stocks. Then the growth bubble burst and SRI withered on the vine. “What I call ESG 1.0 is really a resurrection of that [SRI] movement,” Alec Cutler, manager of the Orbis Global Balanced fund, told Citywire in 2023.

The ESG boom was also interrupted by the energy crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, which pushed many nations to prioritise energy security – a concern reinforced by the war in Iran – and by a political and regulatory backlash in the US that has spilt over into Europe. ESG has been dismissed as “woke capitalism”.

US president Donald Trump has announced further drilling to bolster fossil-fuel production in the US. He also withdrew the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time. At the COP30 climate-change conference in Brazil last year, many were disappointed by the lack of agreement on moving away from fossil fuels.

Recently, former prime minister Tony Blair urged the government to drop its commitment to net-zero and focus on North Sea oil and gas exploration to generate energy for AI. Trump has also pushed back against diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, with large US companies such as Amazon, Disney, Google, and Meta following suit.

The challenges of ESG investing

Against this backdrop, many asset managers have scaled back commitments to ESG, while funds have dropped the term from their names amid large outflows. Larry Fink, CEO of the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, perhaps sensing the change in the mood music around ESG, announced in 2023 that he would stop using the term, despite having previously advocated the investment strategy.

Another difficulty was that ESG, like SRI, had always struggled with ambiguity. The term is subjective, as ethics are personal. ESG strategies generally back companies developing renewable energy or prioritise capital-light firms with low carbon footprints. This could mean excluding tobacco, fossil fuels and defence companies to focus on firms tackling climate change.

However, as there is no universal, legal definition, ESG relies on differing interpretations of what it means to be ethical or sustainable. For instance, defence could be taboo for one investor or ESG-focused fund, but to another it could be deemed crucial to national security and social stability, and thus perfectly acceptable. Similarly, nuclear energy is considered costly and dangerous by some, as it produces radioactive waste. But to others, it is a vital source of low-carbon electricity and critical to the energy transition.

Furthermore, factors comprising ESG can change over time. For instance, governance was once the primary focus, but now environmental and social aspects, such as diversity, are more prominent. This subjectivity has led to differences in how rating agencies score a company's ESG characteristics and there can sometimes be conflicting scores and priorities.

This has triggered concerns about companies and funds “greenwashing” their environmental credentials: using marketing or advertising to make vague, misleading or false claims about their operational impact on the environment. In 2025, Environmental law charity ClientEarth filed a complaint against BlackRock, accusing the world's largest asset manager of calling its funds sustainable despite having invested over $1 billion in fossil-fuel companies, such as Shell and BP. BlackRock has since made changes to many of its funds.

According to a survey by Hargreaves Lansdown, 75% of its clients think it important that their investments reflect their values, with cybersecurity, anti-corruption, bribery and water security key issues. Meanwhile, 47% of women agreed that responsible investing, which includes ESG measures and companies that make a “positive, measurable impact”, is important, compared with 28% of men.

Other asset managers, such as Vanguard Investments Australia and UniSuper, have also been accused of mislabelling their funds.

Since 2022, markets have shifted towards AI or capital-intensive sectors, such as banks and oil. But ESG funds still manage $3.9 trillion in assets, says investment platform Morningstar.“While it may look like responsible investment is a busted flush,” says Darius McDermott, managing director at online research centre and fund ratings agency FundCalibre, “the reality is more nuanced. The atmosphere has changed, and... responsible strategies have had a difficult run of performance. But [the] urgent need to decarbonise our economy remains.”

Despite political scepticism over renewables in the US, the private sector is pressing ahead with investments, backing the energy transition. Several US Republican lawmakers still back the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $369 billion in spending and tax incentives to bolster clean energy and lower greenhouse-gas emissions. “Even if it is partially repealed, this won't necessarily affect the bottom line of all decarbonisation companies,” says McDermott.

Deregulation, such as changes to the US planning framework, could accelerate investment in renewable infrastructure, as occurred during Trump's first term. But McDermott's “biggest concern” is sticky inflation and interest rates that could stay high for longer than expected, potentially deterring the large capital investment needed to decarbonise economies.

ESG investing makes a comeback

Although the hype around ESG investing has subsided, “most mainstream fund managers integrate financially material environmental, social and governance risks and opportunities into their investment processes”, says Dominic Rowles, head of ESG at retail-investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown. Global sustainable funds enjoyed a modest recovery in the first quarter of this year, with $3.5 billion in net inflows thanks to a rebound in Europe, says Morningstar. The US, however, saw its 14th straight quarter of outflows at $4.3 billion. ESG investing is “not a fad, nor do the reasons for it delivering good long-term returns fade”, says Peter Michaelis, head of Liontrust's sustainable investment team. “The broad themes of improving resource efficiency, quality of life and resilience will persist, and companies delivering them will see strong growth.”

A source of future demand

There are also generational differences. According to a survey in April 2025 by Morgan Stanley, Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) and Generation Z (1997-2012) were more likely to be interested in sustainable investing than Generation X (1965-1980) and baby boomers (1946-1964). “As the largest living adult cohort, [Millennials'] preferences matter – and studies show that they are willing to change their buying habits based on their views of a company's sustainability credentials,” says Rowles.

Meanwhile, regulators are tackling greenwashing. The Financial Conduct Authority's (FCA) Sustainability Disclosure Requirements require claims relating to sustainability to be “fair, clear, and not misleading”. The EU has introduced the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, which obliges 50,000 European companies to disclose information on a broad range of ESG issues, and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan to encourage capital toward green infrastructure.

FundCalibre's Darius McDermott says investors should not focus on labels when picking a sustainable fund, but consider holdings, exclusions, engagement policies, proxy voting records, and ESG metrics, as well as any third-party verification and the consistency of the fund's investment approach.

He points to the £623 million Janus Henderson UK Responsible Income Fund. “For investors seeking a sustainable yield, in both senses of the word, it remains an attractive option.” The fund avoids sectors it considers environmentally and socially harmful, such as alcohol, animal testing, weapons manufacturing, fossil fuels, nuclear power, gambling, and tobacco. Its top holdings include AstraZeneca, London Stock Exchange Group, HSBC, National Grid and Smith & Nephew.

“Most ESG themes are driven by long-term structural demand,” adds McDermott. The Regnan Sustainable Water and Waste Fund targets the need for improved water supply and waste management amid growing urbanisation and global wealth. The £240 million global fund consists largely of local operators that are less exposed to tariffs and geopolitical disruption than multinationals. Top holdings include Cia Saneamento Basico Do Estado de Sao Paolo, a Brazilian water and waste management company, and Watts Water Technologies, a US manufacturer of plumbing and heating products.

Liontrust's Peter Michaelis says that the challenge over the last few years has been that market leadership has been concentrated in the AI hyperscalers, defence, mining, and oil sectors, which Liontrust's Sustainable Future funds avoid completely, or are underweight in. “We have always favoured a multi-thematic approach focused on areas such as innovation in healthcare, renewable energy infrastructure, and cybersecurity.”

Although the heady days of ESG investing inflows are unlikely to return and political headwinds remain, the market is maturing. Demonstrating greater resilience than SRI, ESG remains a key tenet of the global investment landscape.

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The emerging market (EM) universe is very diverse in terms of what drives individual economies. What does China have in common with India (other than being populous and in Asia) or either of them with Brazil? Yet they are treated as a block, and recent trends are stretching these contradictions further than ever.

A top-down investing strategy often involves assigning things to groups, then buying the most compelling groups or choosing the most attractive within a group. These groups can seem arbitrary – the difference between members can be as big as the similarities. Yet in the investment business, classifications that seem easy to understand can stick around well past the point where they make sense.

Standard rules of thumb for emerging markets would tell you that the last few months have been difficult. Many emerging markets are energy importers, so will suffer from higher oil prices. Markets also tend to be affected by inflows and outflows from foreign investors. If global investors get more nervous, they would be expected to cut emerging-market exposure first and take their money home. Yet the MSCI Emerging Markets index is up by 20% in sterling so far this year. How?

AI stocks are over-represented in emerging markets indices

The explanation hinges on two points. The first is that two of the biggest markets in the index are emerging markets only in one very specific sense. South Korea and Taiwan retain certain restrictions, mostly around their currencies, that MSCI deems incompatible with being in the developed markets group. Yet in many respects, they are both wealthier and more advanced than many developed economies.

The second is that a few huge companies – Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix – are huge beneficiaries of the AI boom and are driving their markets even more than the Magnificent Seven drives the US market. Those three stocks account for almost 30% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index. Taiwan and Korea together make up 50% of the index. In turn, TSMC is 55% of the MSCI Taiwan, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for 60% of the MSCI Korea.

These are eyebrow-raising numbers. They have worked out very well for any broad emerging-market investor. Still, we must remember that if the AI boom ends and the US market slumps, the emerging market index will do the same – it's been a play on the same theme.

If you want diversification, you will only find it in funds whose mandate does not bring in these stocks – BlackRock Frontiers (LSE: BRFI) or Barings Emerging EMEA Opportunities (LSE: BEMO), for example. Of course, these funds have lagged in recent months, held back by the lack of tech exposure or battered by the Middle East crisis. I would not say it is yet time to rotate out of broader emerging market funds. But it is something to keep in mind if the crisis passes and the AI boom falters.

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Sarah Wynn-Williams, a former senior director at Meta, offers in her 2025 memoir Careless People what The New York Times described as “a darkly funny and genuinely shocking” account of one of the world's most powerful companies.

But, thanks to a gagging order imposed by Meta, owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp (which has frequently invoked the importance of freedom of expression to justify some of the more extreme content on its own sites), Sarah Wynn-Williams was forced at this year's Hay Festival to sit mutely on stage during a panel discussion of her whistleblowing book – on pain of financial ruin. Meta, which calls the book's claims “false and defamatory”, last year won an emergency ruling in the US to stop Wynn-Williams promoting the memoir on the grounds that she had “potentially violated her severance contract”.

This prevents her from saying anything negative about Meta, “potentially for ever”, says The Times. The company asserted that her appearance alongside investigative journalist Carol Cadwalladr and former White House technology adviser Tim Wu – two critics of Meta – also breached a legal ruling. “This amounts to targeting people for the ‘crime' of free association and the public discussion of ideas” at a literary festival “taking place in Hay-on-Wye, not Beijing”. What kind of legally sanctioned madness is this? As Wu observed, it smacks of “medieval” despotism.

It's easy to see why Meta is so “rattled” by the book, which, as well as containing unflattering portraits of senior executives Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl Sandberg (who quit the board in 2024) and global affairs director Joel Kaplan, provides a detailed account of some of its worst alleged practices. An extraordinary array of allegations ranges from “sexual harassment” and the “deliberate manipulation of vulnerable teenagers” to embedding staff in Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, working “hand in glove” with China's autocratic regime and complicity, in the writer's view, in the 2017 Rohingya genocide in Myanmar. The book is “petty, malicious and tremendous fun”, says The Spectator. It also paints an often horrifying picture of “a supranational colossus untroubled by local laws or ethical codes”, says the Financial Times. The book takes its title from F. Scott Fitzgerald's description of Tom and Daisy Buchanan in The Great Gatsby – a couple who “smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness”.

How Sarah Wynn-Williams got involved with Facebook

New Zealand born Sarah Wynn-Williams, now in her mid-40s, had “a front row seat in Meta's growing-up stage”, working in Sandberg's public policy department from 2011-2017, says the FT. After growing up in Christchurch she graduated in law from the University of Canterbury and briefly practised law before joining New Zealand's diplomatic service, which posted her to Washington. She joined Facebook, excited about the potential of the platform. “After years of looking for things that would change the world, I thought I'd found the biggest one going,” she recounts. It didn't take long for disillusionment to set in. In 2017, Wynn-Williams was fired for what Meta/Facebook called “poor performance and toxic behaviour”. She maintains it was after she'd filed a claim of sexual harassment.

“Everyone who cares about free speech” or “the deeds of the powerful and unaccountable” should buy this book, observed The Times after Wynn-Williams' appearance at Hay-on-Wye. It seems readers have taken the message to heart, notes The Bookseller. Sales soared by 305% week-on-week after her very public silencing.

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A new $250 bill has been proposed to celebrate America's upcoming semi-quincentennial, and Donald Trump has a plan to put his face on it. This might be easy to dismiss as yet another example of his overblown ego. But that would be a mistake. If Trump goes ahead, it could undermine faith in what remains the world's reserve currency at the worst possible time.

Trump's allies in Congress have already introduced a law that allows for an exception to the existing rules that no living president can appear on American banknotes. Designs have apparently already been commissioned from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which designs dollar bills. There are still plenty of obstacles in the way. The legislation still has to be passed for one, which is never easy, even with a Republican majority in Congress. But even if it doesn't happen, or is delayed beyond the main celebrations, Trump has already decided to become the first living president to add his signature to the notes. What used to be American money is steadily being turned into Trump money.

Trump's $250 bill could undermine the dollar's credibility

That may seem harmless enough. Trump loves the limelight, and what's a few pictures on the banknotes? In Britain, we have always been happy to have the monarch on notes and coins, and the same is true in many other countries. It is not as if we use cash as much anymore, and it is hard to imagine many people will be using the $250 note regularly. But in reality, this is a symptom of something far more serious – a warning sign about the underlying strength of the dollar.

There is a reason central banks have always put weighty historical motifs on their notes. The British have the likes of Winston Churchill and the Duke of Wellington. The European Central Bank has never managed to agree on any real people or buildings – since one member or another would end up taking offence – but has done the best it can with synthesised images of historic building styles. The Bank of Japan has a selection of famous scientists from the country's history. All over the world, central banks choose an image everyone can feel proud of.

There is a logic to that. Paper money is basically a conjuring trick. It is only worth something because we all accept it is worth something, and we are willing to exchange it for goods and services. Reaching into a nation's past is one way of establishing its credibility. It gives paper money an air of tradition and solidity. Without that, there is a real risk people might start thinking it is just a few brightly coloured pieces of paper.

King Dollar is under attack

This is the worst possible time to start taking risks with the US currency. The challenges to the dollar have been growing stronger all the time. The US budget deficits are out of control, running at 6% of GDP even when the economy is doing well, and eventually the rest of the world will get tired of financing those. Central banks globally now hold more of their reserves in gold than they do in dollars, and while that is partly because the price of the precious metal has risen so much over the last year, it is also an illustration of how they are diversifying away from the dollar. China has already launched a digital yuan and is starting to promote it as a serious alternative for settling payments for cross-border trade. The cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin have had a rough year, but there is little sign they are going away and with every year that passes, they become more established within the financial system, and were always designed as an alternative to the dollar.

The list goes on. On their own, none of those factors might be enough to knock the dollar from its throne as the world's most important currency. But when they all come together at the same time, the greenback is clearly at risk. Like a Latin American strongman, Trump is intent on personalising the government of the US and boosting his own reputation. But if he goes ahead, this may well turn into the moment when the world decides the dollar was not the rock-solid reserve currency any longer and decides to switch to something new. If that happens, the results won't be pretty for the US economy, and Trump may well come to regret his vanity project.

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As Elon Musk’s SpaceX gets ready to list on the Nasdaq, investors are poised for what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) ever.

SpaceX has targeted an IPO price of $135 per share to raise around $75 billion, with a target valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion. Shares will start trading on 12 June.

High-profile events like an IPO can serve as a ‘rising tide’ for a sector and others that are closely related; adjacent companies that might have otherwise been overlooked can benefit from a halo effect. This might include satellite technology, launch services and defence infrastructure stocks.

“A SpaceX listing could do exactly that for space,” said Darius McDermott, managing director at Chelsea Financial Services.

It’s important to remember that an IPO isn’t always a ‘one and done’ event. While there’s often (but not always) a ‘pop’ the day after a company floats, the period immediately after a listing can be volatile – and SpaceX is expected to bring more share price movement than usual, and for longer. So while these ideas present opportunities that may benefit by proxy to the main headline act, investors across the broader sector could be in for an equally bumpy ride.

Investors flocked towards space stocks and funds in the run-up to SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO), according to data released by investing platform AJ Bell.

Analysis of the platform’s most popular stocks and funds in the three months leading up to the IPO show that investors have been eager to invest in the space economy, with funds and investment trusts like Scottish Mortgage (LON:SMT) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like VanEck Space Innovators ETF (LON:JEDG) rocketing in popularity.

“Investors keen to join the race to space haven’t sat on their hands waiting for the SpaceX IPO,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “Space-related investments feature heavily in the most popular purchases on the AJ Bell DIY investor platform over the past three months, as excitement builds ahead of SpaceX’s stock market debut on Friday 12 June.”

How SpaceX’s IPO could lift the space sector

AJ Bell’s analysis ranked the most popular stocks and funds that tie into the space theme ahead of SpaceX’s IPO, based on net buys on its DIY investor platform.

^{Source: AJ Bell. Based on highest number of net buys 8 March to 8 June 2026 on AJ Bell DIY platform.}

It is noteworthy that many of these investments have had greater demand than otherwise staple investments.

“More people bought shares in Scottish Mortgage, Seraphim or the VanEck Space ETF during the past three months than blue chip stocks Shell, BP, AstraZeneca and National Grid, all of which regularly feature in the most popular names with UK investors,” said Coatsworth.

“That’s remarkable as these names are stalwarts of ISAs and pensions across the country, with investors often buying shares in them every month for their attractive dividends and long history of generating solid earnings.”

Not all the investments gained in value in the months running up to SpaceX’s IPO: aerospace contractor BAE Systems (LON:BA.) fell 12% over the past three months.

Some, however, have soared. SpaceX supplier Filtronic (LON:FTC) and spacecraft builder Redwire (NYSE:RDW) both more than doubled in value in the three months leading up to SpaceX’s IPO.

How can you access other upcoming IPOs?

Anthropic and OpenAI, both private AI developers, have announced plans to IPO since the start of June, and should these be a success then it could usher in a new wave of tech IPOs.

“SpaceX may be the IPO of the moment but there are plenty of other exciting private companies in the pipeline for a potential public offering,” said Chelsea Financial’s McDermott.

“Without specialist knowledge, it can be hard to know which ones to back, but investment trusts offer retail investors a ready-made route to some of the best pre-IPO opportunities”.

For a ‘pure-play’ private company focus, Chelsea favours Baillie Gifford’s Schiehallion (LON:MNTN).

“It holds eight of the 10 largest private companies in the world, with the majority of its portfolio in unlisted names, including Bending Spoons, ByteDance, Databricks, Revolut, Stripe and Anthropic.

“These managers have deep private equity networks and the expertise to value private businesses that most ordinary investors simply cannot replicate, and by getting in before a listing, investors can capture far more of the growth,” he said.

Chelsea’s Managed Funds range also holds Chrysalis (LON: CHRY) and Seraphim Space (LON: SSIC), which offers exposure to the space sector specifically with both ordinary and C-shares available.

Should you buy private or public shares?

Once a company lists, its shares become available on the secondary (or open market) and are far easier to buy.

Many of these companies are remaining private for longer (before moving into public ownership when they IPO), generating huge amounts of revenue while doing so, meaning once they list they’ve already enjoyed rapid growth.

For investors keen on space investing broadly but put off by the perceived risk or administrative burden that can be associated with an IPO, it might be worth looking for similar companies already listed; sometimes the more attractive entry points may not be the headline names but companies further along the supply chain.

McDermott said Schroder US Mid Cap Fund is one such option for indirect, diversified exposure.

“[Its] holdings include Hexcel (NYSE:HXL), which makes composite materials used in spacecraft for clients such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin; MACOM Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:MTSI), whose semiconductors are critical to satellite communications; and BWX Technologies (NYSE:BWXT), which provides nuclear propulsion and power components for NASA space programmes,” he said.

Investing in a specialist fund

You might prefer to invest in the theme with a more targeted approach. ETFs are common routes to investing in a specific theme, such as the space economy. Some broad portfolios available to UK investors include the ARK Private Innovation ELTIF (only available via a financial adviser), VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF, or a new vehicle from WisdomTree, whose Space Economy UCITS ETF (LON:WSPG) launched on the London Stock Exchange on 5 June.

Pierre Debru, head of research, Europe at WisdomTree, said while the SpaceX IPO could be a “defining milestone” in driving the sector’s broader appeal, the fundamentals behind the investment case look robust and durable.

As the sector matures, he believes launch systems will become more efficient, easier to access and cheaper, expanding the opportunity set across the value chain.

Earth observation and geospatial intelligence are increasingly feeding into the real economy, supporting industries from agriculture to critical infrastructure.

“Emerging applications, including in-orbit manufacturing, servicing and space-based data infrastructure, are also opening new markets and reinforcing the long-term growth potential of the theme,” added Debru.

If actively managed funds are your preference, one dedicated option is Neuberger Berman’s Next Generation Space Economy Fund. When the fund launched four years ago, the group said the space economy was so much “more than rockets and satellites”, influencing sectors as diverse as banking and precision agriculture to air traffic control and ride sharing.

The Renters’ Rights Act went live in May, ending no-fault evictions and shifting tenancies to rolling contracts.

The reforms also ban landlords from requesting more than one month of rental payment upfront.

The one month advance payment can only be paid once a tenancy agreement is signed.

This means tenants only need to pay a deposit when moving into a property and one month upfront if requested.

Before the changes, landlords could request large amounts in advance.

Requesting larger upfront rent payments was traditionally a way to reduce the risk of rent arrears, particularly when tenants failed to meet affordability criteria.

We reveal alternative ways to test tenant affordability and reduce the risk of rent arrears.

Tenant referencing

A key part of choosing a tenant is referencing.

Landlords can conduct credit checks, get employer references and assess affordability.

You can also talk to a tenant’s previous landlord to check if rent was paid on time and if the property was kept in a good condition.

Some of these checks can be done yourself but there are companies such as Goodlord and HomeLet who can do the work for you.

Nouran Moustafa, practice principal at Roxton Wealth, said: “Landlords need to stop seeing large upfront rent as the only form of security. It was never a perfect test of affordability anyway. Someone can have cash today and still be financially unstable three months later.

"The better approach is proper, evidence-led referencing, income checks, employment status, credit history, previous landlord references and whether the rent is genuinely affordable against the tenant’s wider commitments.”

Rent guarantors

Some analysts predict that landlords will become more reliant on guarantors.

This is where a family member is required to set aside funds in case a tenant fails to pay rent.

Analysis by property insurance technology firm Zero Deposit found the average renter in England is likely to fall short of standard affordability requirements of 2.5 times the annual rent.

With average rents currently standing at £1,438 per month, equivalent to £17,256 per year, tenants would typically need to earn at least £43,140 annually in order to pass affordability checks, Zero Deposit said.

However, average earnings across England currently sit at £41,859, leaving the average renter £1,281 below the required threshold.

Sam Reynolds, chief executive of Zero Deposit, said: “While the Renters’ Rights Act is designed to improve security for tenants, it also significantly changes the way landlords manage financial risk within the private rental sector. With restrictions on upfront rent payments and fewer traditional safeguards available, landlords and agents naturally place greater emphasis on affordability checks and income protection when assessing prospective tenants.

"As a result, we expect guarantors to become an increasingly common requirement for renters who fall outside standard affordability criteria, particularly younger tenants, overseas applicants, self-employed workers, and those moving to high-cost rental areas."

Rent guarantee insurance

Landlords can also protect themselves with rent guarantee insurance.

In return for a premium, this type of insurance pays out the monthly rent amount for a set period if your tenant falls into arrears.

It may also cover the legal fees associated with serving notices and legally evicting tenants.

Michelle Lawson, director of Lawson Financial, said: “Rent guarantee insurance is now a must and is a low cost way of protecting your rental income against most adversities.”

Find a good lettings agent

A lettings agent should have a book of reliable tenants that they have already reference and recommend.

Using a lettings agent can also help keep up with ever-changing rental rules and regulations to ensure you are renting your property out legally.

Lawson added: “A good letting agent will be fully referencing prospective tenants.

“Self-managing landlords will be the ones potentially sleep-walking into disaster as so many are inexperienced and rely on social media to find tenants and for advice- they need to ensure that they use reputable channels.

“There are many industry backed resources that they can call upon but a number will still cut corners which, with the Renters Rights Act and subsequent council imposed fines, could prove costly. to avoid doubt, they should now be employing the services of a good letting agents who knows the new legislation as the buck stops with the landlord regardless.”

SpaceX is about to hit the public markets for the first time, and when it does so it is likely to instantly transform from the world’s most valuable private company to one of the ten most valuable of any type.

The question that will always raise its head at any initial public offering (IPO) is the price at which it sells.

IPOs are often an opportunity for founders and long-term investors to cash in on the efforts they have put into its growth, and the risks they have taken along the way. Because of this, value-focused investors, including Warren Buffett, the chairman and former CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, have tended to eschew them – the logic being that these company insiders will time their exit to coincide with the moment when they will receive the highest value for their shares.

It’s overly cynical to apply this logic wholesale. The same reasoning could be applied to any purchase or sale of any asset; if you buy a stock or fund on the open market, the person you are buying it from probably knew about it before you did, and probably thinks that now is as good a time as ever to sell.

In SpaceX’s case, existing shareholders (including founder and CEO Elon Musk) will also have to hold their shares for 366 days after the listing before selling. The funds raised will go back into SpaceX, enabling it to accelerate its growth plans.

But given that SpaceX looks set to IPO with a valuation of over $1.75 trillion – likely making it the seventh or eighth most valuable company in the world – much scrutiny has been applied to whether or not the $135 per share price tag it is targeting makes sense for investors.

You shouldn’t invest in any asset without carefully considering the risks involved and deciding whether or not it matches your current position. Below, though, we explore the bull and bear cases behind the valuation of one of the most talked-about companies of the year.

SpaceX’s valuation: the bull case

In its IPO prospectus, SpaceX claimed to have identified “the largest actionable total addressable market (TAM) in human history”.

The TAM – effectively the entire economic opportunity the company believes it could eventually address – totals $28.5 trillion, which is a little below the GDP of the US in 2024 (28.8 trillion). This breaks down into three categories:

• Space, including space-enabled solutions (in other words, SpaceX’s rocket launch services): $0.37 trillion.
• Connectivity, including Starlink Broadband and Starlink Mobile: $1.6 trillion.
• Artificial intelligence (AI), which includes AI infrastructure, consumer subscriptions, digital advertising and enterprise applications: $22.7 trillion.

Last year, SpaceX generated revenue of $18.7 billion. The TAM that it has laid out implies that it has the potential to increase this number more than a thousand times over – though there is no specific timescale over which this could happen. The prospectus outlines various risks that could restrict its ability to reach this market, including the fact that many of the required initiatives “involve significant technical complexity, unproven technologies or technologies that do not exist, and such initiatives may not achieve commercial viability”.

Regardless, bulls argue, there is a huge growth opportunity at play here – perhaps even a better opportunity than that posed by any other company on the planet, given that SpaceX operates at the intersection between space and AI, two of the most groundbreaking, forward-looking themes of our age.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: “There is no other company doing what SpaceX does on the same scale, which could be a key appeal to existing and potential investors.

“Space excites people because it is the great unknown and SpaceX has a blueprint to turn dreams into dollars.

“SpaceX boss Elon Musk is a visionary and despite polarised views towards him, the CEO does seem to get things done. The Starlink satellite services arm makes SpaceX interesting because it provides recurring revenue, meaning there is a constant flow of money coming into the business to keep the lights on while it works on big picture ideas like colonising Mars.”

According to people familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs analysts both project that SpaceX’s revenue will near $160 billion in 2028 – almost ten times its level in 2025.

“Bulls might argue SpaceX’s earnings growth potential is so great that valuing it using 2027 or 2028 forecast earnings could make the equity rating look less rich,” said Coatsworth.

SpaceX’s valuation: the bear case

Hard-nosed investors might view the arguments above with a degree of scepticism.

While SpaceX has outlined an opportunity thousands of times larger than its current revenue, there are a lot of uncertainties involved in reaching it. In the meantime, its shares are going on sale at close to 100 times the revenue it made last year. That limits the potential for upside growth, and increases the potential for the shares to fall in value, should SpaceX’s future growth not go according to plan.

Analysis from investment research firm Morningstar estimated the fair value for SpaceX shares at $63 – less than half the price tag that SpaceX is targeting at its IPO.

“Investors are naturally excited about the SpaceX IPO, but with investment bankers suggesting a $1.75 trillion valuation, we believe it's overvalued,” said Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar. “We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative.”

Morningstar was also bearish on the opportunity for Starlink. While SpaceX estimated the service’s TAM at $1.6 trillion, Morningstar estimated that $129 billion is a more reasonable figure given technical constraints and the fact that Starlink will find it harder to compete in dense urban telecom markets.

In one scenario, though, Morningstar suggested that SpaceX might be undervalued at its IPO. Its most optimistic ‘moonshot’ scenario valued SpaceX at $1.97 trillion, or $154 per share – but the company only assigns a 7% probability of this scenario playing out.

AJ Bell’s Coatsworth noted other risks that could apply to SpaceX over time, including share price dilution if its ambitious plans require further rounds of fundraising, as well as unanticipated setbacks such as launch failures or regulatory changes.

Global flows into exchange-traded products (ETP) fell slightly during May compared to the previous month, according to analysis from asset manager BlackRock.

Purchases of ETPs – which mostly comprise exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as some similar products – fell to $199.4 billion in May, from $212.4 billion the previous month.

The dip was driven mostly by a sharp fall in equity fund inflows, which dropped to $106.4 billion – the lowest month for global equity ETP inflows since January.

Similarly, analysis from investment research firm Morningstar found that European ETF and ETC flows fell from €40.2 billion in April to €38.0 billion in May.

“Investor demand for ETFs remained resilient in May, even as flows moderated slightly from April’s peak,” said Jose Garcia-Zarate, senior principal at Morningstar. “Equities continued to dominate allocations, supported by strong market performance and sustained interest in US exposure.”

Which ETP sectors saw the largest flows during May?

Recent analysis of the most popular funds and stocks with DIY investors on Interactive Investor revealed a split between cautious strategies and risk-seekers, a trend also borne out by BlackRock’s analysis.

While fixed-income ETPs recorded their largest month of inflows on record ($87.7 billion), suggesting a cautious market, within equity ETPs technology was the most popular sector, attracting $14.4 billion of inflows.

Besides tech, the only sectors to record meaningful inflows were industrials ($2.7 billion) and energy ($1.5 billion), according to BlackRock.

Morningstar’s data also pointed towards high demand for tech ETFs. Garcia-Zarate attributed much of this demand to the forthcoming SpaceX IPO.

“VanEck Space Innovators ETF (LON:JEDG) [was] among the top 10 flow-gathering ETFs in May,” he said.

Unsurprisingly given the demand for tech-focused ETFs, funds targeting the US saw the largest inflows. Of regionally focused ETPs, BlackRock’s analysis found only those targeting the US received positive flows – and even these dipped to $103.3 billion, from $121.9 billion in April.

Emerging market equity ETPs saw monthly outflows of $40.4 billion, the largest negative flows of any region’s ETPs.

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has joined the race between the three tech giants set to list in 2026, each tipped for a landmark initial public offering (IPO).

One week after Anthropic filed its own paperwork to the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in the same week as SpaceX is expected to float, OpenAI kicked off its own IPO process.

In a brief post on its website on Monday 8 June, OpenAI said: “We recently submitted a confidential S-1. We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it. We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best.”

Filing a ‘confidential’ S-1 form means the SEC can review a company’s financials before having to make them publicly available, which can mitigate the level of market speculation ahead of an IPO.

How much is OpenAI worth?

At the end of March, OpenAI closed its latest funding round, with $122 billion of committed capital co-led by SoftBank, which – post-money – values the AI company at around $852 billion. Dwarfed by the $1.75 trillion SpaceX is said to be valued at, OpenAI ranks behind Anthropic’s latest valuation of $965 billion.

It said it was generating $2 billion in monthly revenue, a growth rate it claims is four times faster than “the companies who defined the internet and mobile eras, including Alphabet and Meta”.

At the time, the company also extended its availability to bank channels in a bid to attract investment from individual investors, which include via several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from ARK Invest, which own the stock.

OpenAI’s democratic third phase

Alongside confirmation of its S-1 filing, OpenAI said it was entering its third phase.

Having spearheaded the consumer-facing AI boom when it launched ChatGPT in 2022, as of February it had around 900 million weekly active users and more than 50 million paying subscribers.

OpenAI has set out its three main goals: to build an automated AI researcher; accelerate the economy; and give everyone on earth an artificial general intelligence (AGI).

A blog by CEO Sam Altman and chief scientist Jakub Pachocki dated 8 June said its first phase had been about doing research toward AGI, its second began "when our research became relevant to the real world and we became a product company."

"Now we are entering the third phase. The economy is beginning to reshape around AI. The central question now is how to make advanced AI abundant, affordable, safe, useful and easy enough for every person and organisation to benefit from it."

In the article, they said rather than concentrating AI’s power in too few hands, which history shows creates fragility, the future needs a broad distribution of that power, which makes societies more "resilient, adaptable and free".

"That is why access matters. It is also why safety, privacy, affordability, open ecosystems, and public oversight matter," they said.

Stepping away from a professional boxing career just a few years after winning gold at the Commonwealth Games might seem a strange decision for some – but not Delicious Orie.

Orie, who retired from the sport last May, has now embarked on a career in the financial world, which offers him something boxing couldn’t – fulfilment.

Orie spoke to MoneyWeek on the latest episode of the MoneyWeek Talks podcast, which can be viewed on YouTube and most podcast platforms.

He said: “I was no longer fulfilled in the sport of boxing. I signed a very good professional contract, and I was going to earn good money, money that I know I’ll probably never earn again. And I didn’t feel anything.”

Instead, Orie, now based in the West Midlands, is training to be a financial planner and help people reach their financial goals. Ultimately, the decision to make the switch was all about making peoples’ lives better.

Orie says: “One of the things I absolutely loved about boxing was the capability of me to be able to travel the world and speak to so many different types of people and understand people’s culture, appreciate the way they perceive life.

“So I thought, 'Right, as an investment manager, is that something that I’ll be able to get?' Because I value that so much…with the very limited research I did, over time I found out that investment management might not be that thing I’m looking for.

“So [I did] a little bit more research and I came across financial advice where you’re able to have that connection to the investment management world, but at the same time have that connection to people and enrich peoples’ lives, financially. So I thought, 'Right, that’s what I’m going to do’."

How boxing and early childhood experience has shaped his financial career

Despite leaving the sport, boxing nurtured plenty of skills in Orie that transfer to the financial world – namely discipline, drive and "obsession".

It was this drive that prompted his decision to complete his initial financial planning exams in five months, a process which can take up to two years for some.

He says: "When I stopped boxing, I thought, 'Right, let me just take it easy'. Since I was 18, I was constantly pushing myself and my body to the next level. I was addicted to it.

“When I stopped boxing, I was like, 'Right let me be present', only to realise that probably about two months after I stopped boxing, I cannot do normal things…I have to consistently push myself to a point where it feels a little overwhelming.”

His early childhood helped pique his interest in financial literacy too.

Describing himself as a business “nerd” growing up, he adds: “I loved business at the time…I’m not talking business in the sense of making money, more in a sense of understanding the inner workings of business and why business and trade happens."

He adds: “I think it stemmed from, as a child, as a family, we didn’t have much, and you sort of question that as a kid.

“You think to yourself, 'Why is that my mum would work 50-hour weeks, 60-hour weeks, and I could barely afford lunch?’”

Why financial literacy gives you ‘control’ over your life

Although he walked away from a lucrative career in boxing, Orie’s biggest regret isn’t hanging up his gloves.

He says: “People were saying, ‘You’ve walked away from potentially multi-millions of pounds’, and I could look them in the eye and say ‘yeah’, and genuinely feel so clean within me.

“Like, ‘Yeah I know I did’, so do I regret boxing? No. What do I regret? I would say investing. Not investing early enough.”

He adds: “If there’s one message I can give and send to the younger generation, [it’s] open up a junior ISA or something. Just do the most random job, do some pot washing, open up a bank account, under your parents or whatever, just put some money in…£10 a week, £20 a week. I promise you, it will pay dividends, huge dividends when you’re 30, 35 years old.”

That’s not the only piece of wisdom he has for the younger generation either. Orie is passionate about spreading the message that financial literacy gives you agency over your life.

“I say this to the younger generation – a pound of debt that you get into is a piece of your future that somebody controls…if you are not in control of money, money will control you,” he says.

“And this [applies] from somebody who’s a high net-worther to somebody who is just about scraping by, it doesn’t matter where you are on that spectrum.”

About the podcast

MoneyWeek Talks is a podcast that helps you unlock the secrets to financial success. Editors Kalpana Fitzpatrick and Andrew van Sickle are joined by influential guests – from CEOs and entrepreneurs to economists and policymakers – to share their top tips on managing money, investing wisely and building wealth.

Subscribe to the MoneyWeek Talks podcast and get ready to make it, keep it and spend it with confidence.

Younger people should be given the choice to take a year of their state pension early in exchange for working longer, a think tank has said, in a report that takes aim at intergenerational wealth unfairness.

The so-called ‘Citizens Advance’ would give people a choice – receive a lump sum now in exchange for postponing the point at which they start receiving their state pension.

Only those who had built up 10 years’ worth of National Insurance contributions would be eligible.

At the current full new state pension rate for a year, those using such a scheme could be given up to £12,547 decades before state pension age.

The proposal, put forward by think tank the Social Market Foundation and Andrew Lewin, the Labour MP for Welwyn Hatfield, highlights how family wealth levels can “alter the course of people’s lives”.

While only a third of adults expect to benefit from an inheritance, those who do will share in some estimated £5.5 trillion expected to be passed down by Baby Boomers in the “Great Wealth Transfer”.

“As the Great Wealth Transfer takes place, the sense of injustice around wealth inequality may only therefore increase without government action. Something has to give,” said the report’s authors.

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said: “The obvious potential benefit to this particular proposal is it could deliver a much-needed cash boost at a time many people really need it, particularly if they’re trying to repay debt or save for a deposit on a first home.

“The downside is that in doing so they would have one year less of state pension income to rely on in later life.”

We look at how much you need for a comfortable retirement in a separate article.

Early state pension lump sum

Support for the policy suggestion was, perhaps unsurprisingly, strong among 25 to 40-year-olds, who might expect to be the key beneficiaries, according to the report, which surveyed 2,000 adults, did AI-led qualitative interviews with 300 respondents and carried out three focus groups.

Most in the 25 to 40 year old age group were in favour of a Citizens Advance, irrespective of whether they would take it, with 54% positive versus just 6% negative. The rest were ‘neutral’ on the idea.

A majority of this age group said they would take such an advance if it was offered, ranging from 50% to 70% depending on the value of the lump sum, length of state pension given up and restrictions on how it can be spent.

The SMF report suggested an early cash advance lump sum could help revive home ownership dreams among the young – with more than two-thirds of 18 to 40-year-old non-homeowners currently of the view property ownership is a dead idea for their generation.

But the report also finds over-indebtedness is increasingly widespread, and a lack of wealth is holding people back from starting a business or family – debt repayment was the most popular intended use of a Citizens Advance, chosen by 18% of respondents to an SMF survey.

People asked in the SMF survey also described the value of the policy in emotional terms, not just financial, calling it “empowering” and allowing them to take matters into their own hands.

What would an early state pension lump sum cost?

A policy to give a year of state pension early could be delivered for £1.3 billion in year one, depending on how eligibility is set, according to the SMF report.

The size of the lump sum, whether it is taxed, who is eligible and how it is rolled out could all affect how much the policy might cost.

An untaxed £12,500 Citizens Advance would cost an estimated £1.3 billion in its first year if it was only made available to those reaching 10 years of National Insurance credits and born from 1998 onwards – i.e. those turning 28 this year.

If it were implemented, only those who went straight into work would be able to claim the lump sum in year one of the policy, with others in the 1998 cohort becoming eligible in the following years depending on their post-18 educational pathways.

Modelling by the SMF suggests costs would grow towards £7 billion as all groups and younger cohorts become eligible and take the Citizen’s Advance over subsequent years, after which costs would increase in line with the state pension.

Costs would be higher, at least in the first few years, if the policy was made available to multiple age cohorts at once. It would take an estimated £27 billion in year one to offer the lump sum to 28 to 35-year-olds, for example, or over £45 billion for those up to 40.

Tax on proposed state pension lump sum

Annual costs are estimated to fall towards £8 billion a year over time as take-up becomes driven by those becoming newly eligible, according to the report.

Making the lump sum taxable would cut costs by a third, as would restricting it to people

earning under the higher income rate (£50,271). Limiting its uses, such as to housing only, is another way of bringing the upfront costs down.

Vahey from AJ Bell said: “A proposal along these lines would present cashflow challenges for the Exchequer, as it would need to pay the money out on demand to anyone who qualifies, whereas at the moment state pension entitlement only kicks in at state pension age.

“Even if early access was offered on the most conservative basis, this would amount to a rise in today’s government spending which would only be offset in decades, potentially creating pressure on the public finances at a time when they are already stretched to breaking point.”

Santander has launched a new rewards credit card, offering a competitive 3% cashback offer on a range of everyday spending.

Customers can get the cashback by using the card on everyday travel, eating out, and takeaway spending for the first 12 months.

There’s no annual fee and no cap on the amount of cashback you can earn, making it a more attractive deal than some others on the market.

As well as the 3% cashback rate on the above purchases, users can earn 0.25% cashback on all other spending indefinitely.

In your second year after getting the card, the cashback rate on travel, eating out and takeaway spending falls to 0.25%.

The Santander Rewards credit card has a representative 24.9% APR (variable).

Jessica Sheldon, MoneyWeek's deputy digital editor, said: "Cashback can be a helpful reward if you were going to spend the money anyway, but with any credit card, always make sure you can pay off the statement balance in full by the due date."

How does Santander’s Rewards credit card compare to other cards?

Santander’s deal is directly competing with other popular cashback credit cards, like those from Chase, which offers 2% cashback up to £20 a month on certain expenditure,

While Santander’s cashback offer is competitive, it may not make sense for everyone.

The 3% rate is very generous, but remember that you only get this rate on two categories of spending in the first year and get the lower 0.25% on everything else.

That means you may earn more money by using cards paying lower rates of cashback.

The Lloyds Ultra card pays 1% cashback on all spending via the card for the first year.

For example, if you spend a total of £1,300 a month (assuming £100 on takeaways, £200 on travel, and £1,000 on everything else), you can expect £13 cashback with Lloyds. With Santander’s Rewards credit card, you’d get £11.50 back.

However, if you adjust the amount spent on these categories, the cashback available via the Santander card may rise.

For instance, if you spent £300 on travel, £200 on takeaways, and just £800 on everything else, the Lloyds Ultra card would pay £13 of cashback, but you’d get £17 with the Santander Rewards credit card.

Before you apply for a credit card with Santander, it is a good idea to look at which categories you spend the most on and work out if your travel and eating expenses are high enough to justify getting the card, or whether you may be better off with a different card.

Santander Rewards credit card: What can you get cashback on?

The Santander Rewards credit card pays 0.25% cashback on all spending for the first 24 months, but you can get a higher 3% rate on certain everyday travel and spending on eating out and takeaways for the first year.

The travel category includes things like buying petrol, diesel, or charging your electric vehicle. It also extends to public transport fares on trains, buses, and the London transport system, as well as taxi spending.

Meanwhile, the eating out and takeaway category includes spending at restaurants, coffee shops, and food delivered to you. Cashback earned is paid monthly.

On top of the cashback, the Rewards credit card can be used abroad without incurring any additional foreign exchange fees.

Unlike some other credit cards that offer cashback, there is no fee for the Santander card.

Who can open a Santander Rewards credit card?

To be eligible for the credit card, you must be a permanent resident of the UK and be over the age of 18.

You must also have a guaranteed annual income of £10,500 or more and have a good credit record. Acceptance for the account is subject to a credit check by Santander, which will determine whether you can be accepted and the maximum credit limit they can offer you.

You can only have one Santander Rewards credit card.

Is the Santander Rewards credit card worth it?

While the 3% cashback rate looks generous, few people will be able to get a truly significant cashback just from spending on travel, eating out and takeaways.

For example, if you commute to work every day and it costs around £10 per day, you will spend around £200 a month on travel. With the Santander card, you will receive 3% of this as cashback, which is just £6.

If you spend an extra £100 on eating out and/or takeaways a month, this will add an extra £3.

If you spend around £1,000 a month on everything else, you will receive 0.25% of this as cashback, or around £2.50.

Together, that means you will receive £11.50 a month in cashback. Assuming that your spending stays the same for a year, you can expect to receive around £138 for the period.

Whether or not this amount is enough to justify setting up a new credit card or shifting where you spend your money depends on your personal circumstances and the current perks you get from your accounts right now.

We compare the best cards for flight points and airline rewards in a separate article.

Planned changes to the mortgage market could make it easier for older homeowners to access tens of thousands of pounds of wealth built up in their property.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) wants to update affordability guidance for retirement interest-only mortgages, as part of a consultation into the wider home borrowing market launched today (9 June).

Rising house prices mean older borrowers collectively have billions of pounds of housing wealth locked up in their homes. But many are reluctant to move. Retirement interest-only mortgages can offer a solution.

To help older borrowers access some of this housing wealth, the regulator is proposing to make changes that would mean affordability for joint retirement interest-only mortgage applications are assessed in the same way as for standard joint mortgages.

In practice this would mean lenders would not be obliged to always consider a sole borrower’s ability to afford the mortgage if the joint borrower passes away.

By removing this rule, lenders would be able to more flexibly determine – based on

their risk appetite and in line with mortgages conduct and consumer protection rules – how to assess whether the surviving spouse or civil partner could still afford the required payments or what their exit strategy may be.

David Geale, executive director for payments and digital finance at the FCA, said: “We’re living longer and how many people work has changed. Our mortgage rules need to keep pace so those who can afford to repay can borrow.

“Stronger protections mean we can now safely widen access to mortgage borrowing for those that may be underserved.”

What are retirement interest-only mortgages?

Retirement interest-only mortgages (RIOs) are designed for borrowers over 50 or 55. You only pay the interest each month, and the loan is only repaid when you pass away, move into long-term care, or sell your property.

RIO mortgages can help older homeowners because it can get harder to get a new mortgage as you get closer to retirement. A RIO lets you mortgage your home in later life or provides an alternative to equity release.

We compare equity release versus downsizing in a separate article.

How does a retirement interest-only mortgage work?

A retirement interest-only mortgage is similar to a lifetime mortgage where the loan is usually only paid off when you sell the house, die or move into long-term care.

But retirement interest-only mortgages have different risks compared to lifetime mortgages. In particular, they do not feature the roll-up of interest, meaning homeowners don’t run the risk of the equity in their home being eroded – allowing them to leave more to their loved ones in the form of an inheritance.

Retirement interest-only mortgages require a borrower to manage the ongoing monthly payments, whereas a lifetime mortgage does not require monthly payments.

Demand for retirement interest-only mortgages

FCA data showed there is demand for mortgage products among older homeowners. Yet sales of retirement interest-only mortgages remain low compared with lifetime

mortgages – 3,002 RIOs versus 26,974 lifetime mortgages in 2025, according to FCA figures.

Firms have told the regulator, including in responses to its discussion paper, that the availability of retirement interest-only mortgages are constrained due to its current guidance being too restrictive.

Richard Pinch, head of banking and credit advisory at financial services consultancy Broadstone, said: “The FCA’s proposals represent a sensible evolution of the mortgage market, recognising that traditional affordability assessments do not always reflect the realities of modern working patterns, income streams and borrowing needs.

“The regulator is seeking to give lenders greater flexibility through affordability assessments that better reflect real borrower behaviour and lifetime earnings patterns. The proposals could be particularly beneficial for groups that have historically found it more difficult to access mortgage finance, including the self-employed, those with variable income and older borrowers.”

Mortgage help for self-employed

The FCA is also seeking to do more to help self-employed people get mortgages. The self-employed have typically struggled to get home loans due to often having inconsistent income, making lenders more reluctant to lend to them, seeing them as more risky.

FCA product sales data from 2025 shows around 6% of mortgage sales included at least one borrower whose employment status was recorded as “self-employed” at application. This compares to around 13% of the workforce who are self-employed, including around 1-2% who are independent contractors or locums.

Proposals include reducing barriers for lenders to offer flexible repayments for people with variable income, like the self-employed, and lend to those paid in foreign currency.

The FCA is also encouraging lenders to assess affordability based on a person’s “full and current situation”, rather than automatically excluding people because of minor or past credit history issues.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, said: “Developing products to better suit people’s lives makes perfect sense. Self-employed people with lumpy incomes have been forced to contort their finances into paying the same sums each month under existing rules.

“A change could allow them to access products that are flexible enough to fit around their lives and their needs instead.”

HMRC is increasingly hitting bereaved families with penalties for filing inheritance tax returns late as they struggle with long, complicated forms, according to data from a Freedom of Information request.

The number of penalties issued by HMRC for filing inheritance tax (IHT) returns late increased 35% from 3,850 to 5,200 over the last five years, data up to the tax year 2024/25 obtained by TWM Solicitors showed.

Fines for late filing rapidly increase over time, from an initial £100 to up to £3,000 after 12 months.

Many families with modest estates have been drawn into paying IHT in recent years, largely because the IHT threshold has remained frozen since 2009. Even an average house can now trigger an IHT bill on its own.

But Duncan Mitchell-Innes, partner and deputy head of private client at TWM, said the increase in late penalties is also being driven by more families attempting to complete IHT returns themselves, without realising the complexity involved.

“People often underestimate the complexity of the UK’s IHT rules. What seems like a straightforward task can quickly become time-consuming and technically challenging, particularly when HMRC requires extensive supporting evidence. This can lead to penalties if deadlines are missed,” he said.

Complex IHT forms

The basic IHT400 form alone has 122 questions, often requiring detailed financial and historical information.

This is the main form families will need to fill in for inheritance tax purposes. But in many cases, it must be supplemented by additional schedules – requests for information – of which there are more than 30, depending on the nature of the estate.

One of the most time-consuming parts of an IHT return, according to lawyers, relates to the valuation of assets. Many assets, such as residential property, need to be valued professionally – market estimates are not enough.

In addition, some assets, such as shares, have specific ways of being valued for IHT purposes. Getting these valuations completed on the correct technical bases can be time consuming without prior technical knowledge.

Delays can also arise where executors struggle to identify all the relevant details needed for the IHT400. This can include tracing all bank accounts, investments and historical gifts, which sometimes go back many years – for instance due to the seven year rule. Many banks only provide this information by post.

Missing out on inheritance tax reliefs

Mitchell-Innes said it can be hard for people handling their loved one’s IHT return on their own to identify all the relevant technical reliefs and exemptions that may apply, together with gathering the evidence to support them.

For example, gifts made out of surplus income or more than seven years before death may be exempt, but finding evidence to support that exemption can take time.

Some families handling their own return even lose out on reliefs and exemptions available to them simply because they do not know they exist.

“Reliefs aren’t applied automatically. People must actively claim reliefs and exemptions and find the evidence to support them where needed, which can be time-consuming. Without proper advice, families risk penalties and leaving valuable reliefs unclaimed,” said Mitchell-Innes.

The number of penalties for late filing of inheritance tax returns is likely to increase further after unused pension pots are brought into the IHT net from April 2027, leading to more families having to submit a return.

The development is expected to increase the demands on personal representatives – those in charge of administering the estate left behind after a death – to get the pension IHT paperwork right, or face potential fines themselves.

Barclays has ditched its monthly fee for retail investors in a major move which could save customers hundreds of pounds a year.

Customers using Barclays Direct Investing, formerly Smart Investor, previously paid 0.25% on balances up to £200,000 and 0.05% on anything more monthly, but will now pay nothing with immediate effect.

The removal of the monthly fee by Barclays means someone with a £300,000 holding will save £550 a year. Stacked up over a number of years and the savings could reach into the thousands of pounds.

The cut applies to the trading platform fee and investors still need to pay FX charges, and fees for telephone trading and buying and selling stocks. Buying and selling funds remains free.

Sasha Wiggins, chief executive of Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, said: “By removing our Direct Investing customer fee, we are helping to make it more straightforward for people to take the next step and invest with confidence.”

Barclays’s decision follows several other providers responding to competition in the market by cutting fees.

Some providers have also come under pressure to reduce their fees as consumers wise up to the real impact on returns.

Earlier this year, Hargreaves Lansdown shook up its fee structure, including lowering its annual platform fee from 0.45% to 0.35%, which works out better for some customers.

In February, interactive investor (ii) introduced a new pricing plan which saw flat fees reduced on most accounts depending on their size (though some fees increased).

Holly Mackay, chief executive officer and founder of consumer advice website Boring Money, said the move from Barclays has seen it leapfrog Hargreaves Lansdown, ii, AJ Bell and Fidelity to join Freetrade as the cheapest platform in the UK for those holding funds.

Mackay said that because Barclays already charges no fee to trade funds, removing the account fee means “anyone buying funds who banks at Barclays already and has the app will struggle to make a case to buy funds anywhere else”.

“This is a very big move which will shake up the direct investing market. Barclays is drawing a bold line in the sand which will take the fight to challenger fintechs,” Mackay added.

“I think we’re entering a new phase of very strong competition and I would be very surprised if other big brand platforms didn’t respond.”

How does Barclays compare to other platforms after the change?

How Barclays compares to other platforms following the change depends on your holding and what type of investments you trade in.

According to analysis by Boring Money, for a customer contributing the maximum annual £20,000 into a stocks and shares ISA and buying two funds per year, the lowest cost providers are now Barclays and Freetrade (both £0).

Banks HSBC and Santander would cost £50 and £70, respectively, while Hargreaves Lansdown, ii and AJ Bell would cost £73.90, £79.86 and £53, respectively.

Boring Money also looked at annual costs based on trading ETFs. Based on eight trades per year, Barclays would cost £48 in total. This is based on each trade costing £6 and no monthly account fee.

AJ Bell would cost £82 per year and Halifax £112 per year.

Below is a breakdown of how much your annual platform fee would cost based on eight fund trades per year.

Credit: Boring Money (platform fee cost based on eight fund trades per year)

Do note, it’s worth factoring in other investment costs when deciding which platform is best for you, plus the choice of investments you’ll have on each platform.

While Barclays has ditched its monthly fee, customers have less funds to choose from compared to AJ Bell. Barclays customers can choose from around 2,500 funds but AJ Bell offers over 4,000 to pick from.

Stock markets sold off late last week as strong economic data combined with underwhelming results from one semiconductor giant pushed investors towards the exits.

The S&P 500 fell 2.6% on Friday 5 June, with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) – the index’s seventh-largest constituent – shedding 7.9%. It marked three consecutive sessions of losses for the company, which is viewed as one of Nvidia’s key competitors in the lucrative artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor market, during which Broadcom’s shares fell 19.9%.

As can be the way with crowded trades, Broadcom’s woes soon spread to other stocks and funds.

The Nasdaq Composite – which contains all shares on the tech-dominated index – fell 4.3% in the two sessions to 5 June. The iShares Semiconductor ETF, which tracks the NYSE Semiconductor Index, fell 12.3% over the same period.

Which factors have contributed to the stock market selloff?

While the selloff was sparked by Broadcom, more macro factors came into play later in the week.

US labour data was released on Friday 5 June. It showed an unexpectedly strong job market, with 70,000 new jobs added in May (compared to a monthly average of 14,000).

This labour market strength reduces the likelihood of a cut to US interest rates, and in fact increases the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates amid fears of higher inflation as a result of the war in Iran.

High interest rates are negative for equities, particularly tech stocks, because they tend to restrict the amount of future growth in an economy.

“Friday's US jobs report sparked a firestorm of selling, with big tech bearing the brunt of the wobble in confidence,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at wealth manager Wealth Club. “Indices in Asia have been hit by the contagion of pessimism, with semiconductor stocks falling sharply.”

On 8 June, the US tech selloff combined with fears that the fragile ceasefire in Iran might be shattering led to the Korean stock market pausing trading for 20 minutes following a decline of more than 8% – having already had to trigger a circuit breaker in March following the start of the conflict.

Korea’s stock market is dominated by semiconductor stocks SK Hynix and Samsung, both of which fell late last week.

Why did Broadcom’s shares sell off?

On 3 June, Broadcom announced its results for the second quarter (Q2) of the 2026 fiscal year.

Revenue increased 48% year-on-year to $22.19 billion. This was a slight miss on analysts’ expectations; those polled by the London Stock Exchange Group yielded a consensus revenue estimate of $22.27 billion.

This miss was compounded by the fact that Broadcom reiterated its guidance of $100 billion in AI chip sales for 2027.

These might not sound like significant problems, but the market has got used to AI companies exceeding analyst targets and frequently raising their outlooks.

“Although the huge earnings it's raking in are highly impressive, a very high bar has been set,” said Streeter.

Because Broadcom is a supplier to the broader AI industry, the appearance that its growth trajectory might be decelerating led to fears that demand for other AI-related stocks might slow.

Is there an AI bubble, and is it bursting?

Since the explosive growth of AI stocks from 2023, many investors have been wary of the prospect of an AI bubble.

Valuations of big tech stocks, particularly the Magnificent 7 and close competitors like Broadcom, rose rapidly on expectations that the future growth of AI would drive rapid increases in revenue and profits for many years to come.

These heightened expectations leave these stocks susceptible to any slight counter to the narrative of continued, rapid growth. Expectations are very high, and moments like Broadcom’s underwhelming guidance undermine the exuberance that the market has become accustomed to.

“Given how heady tech valuations have become, it's not surprising that investors are reassessing allocations and opting for companies with more reliable income streams and dividends,” said Streeter. “There had already been undercurrents of worry about the surge in tech stock prices and fears that today's insatiable demand for the apparatus needed to support AI products and services would eventually wane.”

Should you join the stock market selloff?

Whether or not you sell stocks following the recent market pessimism is going to be a factor of your current portfolio and risk preferences.

As a general rule, though, it is often best to avoid knee-jerk reactions to short-term market moves.

Making regular investments can help to take the emotion and decision-making out of investing, and can mean you buy stocks at lower prices during short-term downturns.

You could also see the current pessimism around tech stocks as an opportunity to look to other sectors.

“Tech is starting to fall out of fashion, while companies operating in the 'real economy' may be more sought after – those selling consumer staples, providing healthcare, or keeping the lights on through utility services,” said Streeter.

UK REITs – real estate investment trusts – have drastically underperformed the wider market over the past year. The FTSE All-Share index excluding investment trusts has produced a total return of around 22%, while industrial REITs – the largest group in the sector – has returned just 6.8%, mostly from income.

However, while investors are clearly not interested in the sector, trade buyers and private equity are. Five years ago, there were 82 listed REITs. More than half have since been acquired or liquidated. Private-equity giant Blackstone has been especially active, first taking out St. Modwen Properties and Industrials REIT. It then beat Tritax Big Box (LSE: BBOX) in a battle for Warehouse REIT, before selling assets to Tritax in exchange for a 9% stake.

The trend looks set to continue. Earlier this year, British Land (LSE: BLND) acquired Life Science REIT. More recently, LondonMetric Property (LSE: LMP) – which has completed several deals in recent years – and Schroder Reit (LSE: SREI) have teamed up on a bid for Picton Property Income (LSE: PICT), although the outcome remains unclear. Last week, some of Picton's shareholders told the Investors' Chronicle that they are unhappy with the proposed terms.

Unwarranted discounts on UK REITs

Derwent London (LSE: DLN) offers one of the best examples of value in the sector. The company owns a portfolio of high-quality offices in central London and trades at a 47% discount to net asset value (NAV), with a 4.6% yield. In an attempt to close the discount, management recently announced a £50 million share buyback, signalling it believes this is a better use of capital than buying additional assets. You can't criticise management for buying back stock – it's the equivalent of buying a new building at a 50% discount.

Yet it's clear that something has gone horribly wrong in this market, given that London is set to run out of high-quality office space within the next few years and rents are breaking records.

Grainger (LSE: GRI) offers another example. This is one of the largest residential landlords in the country and can't build new properties fast enough to meet demand. It has consistently reported an occupancy rate in the high 90s and last year recorded overall rental income growth of 7.8%. Yet the shares have fallen 29% over the past 12 months and now trade at nearly 50% discount to NAV, with a yield of 5.4%. Mike Ashley, founder of retail group Frasers, has been buying as others are selling. He owns just under 5% of the company via derivatives.

The value catalyst

Other examples include the likes of Great Portland Estates (LSE: GPE), which is trading at 60% of NAV (it focuses on development more than income, so has a lower 2.7% yield). Even relatively popular REITs such as LondonMetric and Supermarket Income (LSE: SUPR) are trading at around 90% of NAV, with yields of around 7%.

In general, UK REITs are changing hands at some of the lowest valuations in recent memory. Yes, they could get cheaper, but sooner or later they are just going to be too good for trade buyers and private equity to pass up. This should be compelling for value investors, since value investing works best if there is a clear potential catalyst to realise that value. Given the continued liquidation of the London equity market, it could only be a matter of time before every remaining deeply discounted REIT gets taken out.

If and when that occurs, investors who buy at today's valuations could see attractive capital gains. In the meantime, while they wait they can pick up dividend yields of 5%-7% – in many cases derived from long-term contracts with high-quality tenants.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

With a focus on British small-cap stocks, the Henderson Smaller Companies investment trust seeks to deliver long-term capital and income growth by investing in UK-listed companies at their most exciting stage of development. Our stock-picking approach is designed to identify this growth before others do, capturing the small-cap premium through disciplined valuation, ensuring we invest only where prices do not yet fully reflect a company's strong fundamentals in terms of growth and cash generation.

A tumultuous decade for British small-cap stocks, beginning with nerves around the EU referendum and culminating in an energy crisis and a sharp rise in interest rates, has left this part of the market unloved, overlooked and, most importantly, awash with value. We highlight three British small-cap stocks that are cheap compared with international peers, with precedent transactions (the price that peers have recently been purchased for in merger and acquisition deals) and with their own history.

Promising British small-cap stocks for your portfolio

Oxford Biomedica (LSE: OXB) is a contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) specialising in manufacturing viral vectors for cell and gene therapy, treatments used to combat cancer and rare genetic diseases and used in a growing range of new applications. It is one of only a handful of players globally capable of developing these technologies at a commercial scale. The market is growing at more than 20% a year, and the firm has set ambitious targets to more than double revenues by 2028, underpinned by increased capacity coming online at its Oxford (UK) and Durham (US) facilities. The shares trade at about a 30% discount to internationally listed peers despite faster forecast sales and earnings growth. Meaningful consolidation across the CDMO sector in recent years and interest from private-equity firm EQT make the stock look even more attractive.

In a world where financial-services firms are fighting to get closer to their clients, Rathbones (LSE: RAT), which provides financial planning and investment advice, is well-positioned. Ageing populations and rising personal and wealth taxes are driving demand. The shares trade on a steep discount to multiples recently paid by NatWest for smaller competitor Evelyn Partners and offer an attractive dividend yield.

Everplay (LSE: EVPL) is an independent video-game developer and publisher with a resilient business model, operating in a structurally growing part of an already large market. In the premium “AA” and “AAA” segment of the market, firms sink large sums into individual titles and need big hits to drive returns. The smaller, independent players are different. Everplay spends on average £1 million-£1.5 million per game, releasing about ten new titles a year, meaning risk is diversified and earnings are not dependent on any single release. About 75% of earnings are underpinned by a strong back catalogue of well-known titles that continue to generate revenue – Worms, for example, is more than 20 years old and still makes money.

It also owns simulation-gaming business Astragon, with its niche customer base, and StoryToys, a mobile “edutainment” division targeting younger players and recurring revenues. Everplay is a leading scaled player in its sector and, despite resilient growth and strong cash generation, a robust pipeline for this year and significant firepower to pursue mergers and acquisitions to drive incremental growth, the shares trade at just over seven times EV/Ebitda – a significant discount to peers, precedent transactions and its own history.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

Software Circle (Aim: SFT) is a particularly interesting company at the out-of-favour smaller end of the UK stock market, where years of outflows from small-cap funds have left hundreds of the smallest companies largely ignored – thus creating opportunities for investors. It is listed on the junior market and is attempting to build long-term shareholder value by acquiring a collection of niche software businesses. It's early days, but the firm has many attractions.

Software Circle buys mature software businesses operating in niche corners of the economy, such as care homes. These are typically firms with loyal customers, recurring revenues and founders nearing retirement. The software itself is often dull – and that is precisely the attraction.

Software Circle started out as a printing business that struggled with costs and operational headaches. Buried inside the group, however, was a profitable software platform called Nettl Systems. The management decided to abandon the old printing model and sold manufacturing operations. The balance sheet was cleaned up and the remaining cash redirected into a new strategy focused entirely on software acquisitions.

Software firms generally require far less investment than manufacturers. Once developed, software can often be sold repeatedly at very high margins. Better still, customers tend to stick around for years. Software Circle now focuses on the vertical market software – specialist products designed for narrow industries or professions. These markets are rarely exciting, but they can be extremely profitable.

Many small businesses rely on highly specialised software to run everyday operations. Replacing them can be disruptive and expensive. As a result, customers rarely switch providers. The software they use represents only a tiny proportion of overall costs, which gives providers pricing power. Even steady annual price increases are unlikely to cause many complaints.

This combination of recurring revenue, low customer turnover and pricing power has created some exceptionally successful software businesses. Software Circle is buying lots of these businesses across the fragmented UK and Irish market for software companies.

Software Circle's acquisition strategy

The company's acquisition strategy is refreshingly conservative and management maintains an internal database of potential acquisition targets across the UK and Ireland that numbers more than 4,000. Importantly, management is disciplined on price and generally refuses to pay more than seven times adjusted earnings for acquisitions. Across the software businesses acquired so far, the average purchase multiple has been closer to six times. That matters because buy-and-build strategies often fail when acquirers become too aggressive.

The latest interim results suggest the strategy is beginning to gain traction. Revenue rose 15% to £10.2 million, while subscription income now accounts for roughly three-quarters of group sales. That recurring revenue mix is important because subscription software businesses tend to be more predictable and resilient than project-based technology firms. Underlying profitability also improved while central overheads remained tightly controlled. The education-software segment performed particularly well, delivering organic growth of 17%.

The statutory accounts still show an operating loss, but this largely reflects accounting charges linked to acquisitions rather than weak underlying trading. Cash generation gives a clearer picture of the business. Operating cash flow continued to improve and management says its portfolio of software assets is generating returns on invested capital of roughly 25%. For a serial acquirer, that is a highly encouraging figure.

Software Circle is also now large enough to access bank financing. This will give the firm greater flexibility to continue acquiring businesses without returning to shareholders. Management ultimately hopes the business will become self-funding, with recurring cash flows supporting future acquisitions. If achieved, that could create a powerful long-term compounding effect.

Another encouraging feature is strong alignment with shareholders. The executive team is unusually lean, with only a handful of senior staff operating from a modest office in Manchester. Long-term incentives are tied to shareholder returns and management options encourage a longer-term mindset.

The shareholder register is similarly supportive. German investors connected to Chapters Group (another European software acquirer) hold a large stake in the business. Around 10% is owned by Sun Mountain, the investment vehicle associated with Will Thorndike, an investor with a famously long-time horizon.

None of this removes the risks. Software Circle remains a very small firm operating in an illiquid part of the market. Acquisition strategies can go wrong if management overpays, struggles with integration, or takes on too much debt. The shares are also unlikely to suit investors seeking quick returns or dependable income.

Even so, the ingredients for an attractive long-term compounder are there. The firm operates in a fragmented market, focuses on sticky recurring revenues, appears disciplined on valuation and is building access to cheaper acquisition financing. Software Circle is attempting to build a UK-listed version of the niche software compounders that have worked extraordinarily well in North America.

The business is still small and far from proven. However, in a neglected corner of the UK market, it may be one of the more interesting stories developing.

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