Betting on politics: impeaching the US president

Donald Trump © Getty images
Trump: heading for impeachment

With the Mueller report now published, it’s a good time to look at what the betting exchanges are saying about President Donald Trump (pictured) and the odds that he will face impeachment. And for the moment it’s looking bad for those who think that he’ll be forced out of office within the next eight months.

While the main exit-date market on Betfair has seen a lot of activity, with a total of £1.3m wagered, you can now get 14.5 (6.9%) on Trump leaving office this year and only 1.07 (93.4%) on him surviving until at least next year.

Interestingly, punters are also very sceptical that he’ll go the way of President Richard Nixon, as you can get 4.7 (21.2%) that he’ll be impeached during his first term in office and 1.23 (81.3%) on him not being impeached. It’s important to note that the rules of Betfair’s market only requires the House of Representatives to pass at least one count of impeachment, so punters clearly don’t think that House speaker Nancy Pelosi will allow him to be impeached.

Betfair has also launched another market on Trump’s exit date that extends until 2025. In this case, a 2021 exit date (the date he’d leave if he lost the next election) is currently the most favoured outcome at 2.06 (48.5%), followed by 2025 (the date he’d depart if he served a full second term) at 2.6 (38.4%). Of the irregular departure dates, 2020 has the shortest odds at 10.5 (9.5%). Of all the above bets, the one that I’d recommend is the 2.06 on him to depart in 2021.