What to expect from emerging markets

The last decade has been a mixed blessing for investors in emerging markets. Taken over the whole ten years, to June 2014, emerging markets have comfortably beaten developed markets: the MSCI Emerging Markets index had an annualised total return – including reinvested dividends – of 12.3%, in US dollar terms, compared with 7.84% for the MSCI World index of developed markets.

But gains in the second half of that period were very disappointing compared to what had gone before. During the last five years, annualised returns of 9.58% for emerging markets lagged a long way behind [...]

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