Don’t rely on forecasts

There aren’t many sure things in economics, as you might have noticed from all the fudging and fence-sitting economists indulge in. But here’s one – economic forecasts are utterly worthless.

No one – not the International Monetary Fund, not Goldman Sachs, and certainly not the Bank of England – can predict the future with any level of consistency or accuracy. And no one expects them to be able to either.

No one keeps a score sheet or holds forecasters to account – we all know that they have as much validity as a fairground fortune teller, so why [...]

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