At the start of 2016, virtually everyone was expecting a strong dollar. Virtually everyone was wrong. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major trading partners’ currencies, spent most of the year sliding or treading water, only bouncing in mid-November after Donald Trump’s election. It hit a 14-year high in early January, prompting widespread forecasts of further gain this year. But history may be repeating itself. In January the dollar index slid by 3.5%, its worst start to the year in over a decade.
The rally “looks to be running [...]