Betting on politics: Election result confounds

Jeremy Corbyn © Getty images
Jeremy Corbyn is showing no signs of stepping down

My final prediction of a Conservative majority of between 80-90 in last week’s election was clearly off the mark. My tips on Labour vote share, Labour seats, Lib Dem vote share and, of course, the actual result, were similarly off track. But on almost everything else I was correct. So how did this column do overall?

Thirteen out of the 17 grouped bets (or 22 bets if you count them individually) that I tipped directly related to the election paid off. However, because most of them were at short odds (with the exception of Corbyn remaining Labour leader), the total profit was only 6.5% – and you would have made a small loss if you’d split the grouped bets into their constituent parts and bet on each equally. Overall, the average return from the 37 combined – and now settled – bets made by this column is still 26%.

In terms of the peripheral bets, Corbyn looks unlikely to leave as Labour leader before the end of the year – although if there’s another election, I wouldn’t rule this out (and of course Yvette Cooper or Lisa Nandy could still succeed him in the future). It would also make sense for Corbyn to discreetly move Diane Abbott from Shadow Home Secretary to another role at some point. Meanwhile, Scottish independence seems dead after the SNP’s drubbing – but if the past few years has taught us anything, it’s never say never.

However, I’m really excited about Betfair’s new market on the 2018 congressional elections. While only a tiny amount of money has been matched so far, you should take the opportunity to bet on a Democratic House majority at 3.1 (32%).

While seat boundaries and incumbency favour the Republicans, Trump’s abysmal approval ratings are going to be a massive drag on GOP candidates up and down the country. And the party that controls the White House usually does badly in mid-term elections.

Merryn

Claim 12 issues of MoneyWeek (plus much more) for just £12!

Let MoneyWeek show you how to profit, whatever the outcome of the upcoming general election.

Start your no-obligation trial today and get up to speed on:

  • The latest shifts in the economy…
  • The ongoing Brexit negotiations…
  • The new tax rules…
  • Trump’s protectionist policies…

Plus lots more.

We’ll show you what it all means for your money.

Plus, the moment you begin your trial, we’ll rush you over THREE free investment reports:

‘How to escape the most hated tax in Britain’: Inheritance tax hits many unsuspecting families. Our report tells how to pass on up to £2m of your money to your family without the taxman getting a look in.

‘How to profit from a Trump presidency’: The election of Donald Trump was a watershed moment for the US economy. This report details the sectors our analysts think will boom from Trump’s premiership, and gives specific investments you can buy to profit.

‘Best shares to watch in 2017’: Includes the transcript from our roundtable panel of investment professionals – and 12 tips they’re currently tipping. The report also analyses key assets, including property, oil and the countries whose stock markets currently offer the most value.